Stressed by Strife: ASEAN from Pattaya to Preah Vihear Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak Associate Professor and Director Institute of Security and Int’l Studies Faculty of Political Science Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok Visiting Scholar, CDDRL-Humanities Center, 26 April 2010
Presentation outline 1. 2. 3. 4. Southeast Asia as a region Southeast Asia as an organization Domestic strife and regional effects Premises and prospects
1. Southeast Asia as A Region 1. 1 Comparative politics of Southeast Asia ¢ 570 million people (ASEAN Sec figure); GDP: $1. 5 trn ¢ 11 countries (ASEAN + East Timor) ¢ All post-colonial, except Siam/Thailand ¢ Multi-ethnic; multi-religious; multi-lingual ¢ All influenced by overseas Chinese ¢ All affected by Japan’s Co-Prosperity Sphere in WWII ¢ Postwar independence movements and interstate conflicts in the region
1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont. ) 1. 2 Diverse and disparate regime types ¢ Absolute monarchy: Brunei ¢ Constitutional monarchy: Cambodia, Malaysia (federal), Thailand ¢ Socialist: Laos and Vietnam ¢ Military authoritarian: Burma/Myanmar ¢ Republic: Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, (East Timor)
1. Southeast Asia as A Region (cont. ) 1. 3 Vibrant economic development ¢ tamed tigers? ; formerly ASEAN Four; Asian Values? ; East Asian Miracle ¢ 1997 -98 economic crisis; recovery and new trajectory 1. 4 Political change and continuity: A mixed bag of democratization and autocracy ¢ Indonesia/Malaysia/Philippines/Thailand/Sin gapore/Cambodia ¢ Brunei/Laos/Vietnam/Burma-Myanmar 1. 5 Internal conflicts and insurgencies in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand
2. Southeast Asia as An Organization 2. 1 International relations of Southeast Asia 2. 2 Evolution and development: ¢ Malphilindo; ASA; SEATO; ASEAN ¢ Why ASEAN? : Konfrontasi; major powers/national development; ethnic and power balance 2. 3 ASEAN as longest regional vehicle after 42 years; Cold War during 1967 -87; economic exuberance in 1987 -97; APEC (1989); AFTA (1992); ARF (1994) 2. 4 No War in ASEAN; just border tensions and skirmishes
2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont. ) 2. 5 Expansion: Brunei (1984); Vietnam (1995); Laos and Burma/Myanmar (1997); Cambodia (1999) 2. 6 Miracle-Meltdown; Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) under ASEAN Plus Three (APT) from 1998 2. 7 GWOT (2001 -08); Second Front; Separatist insurgencies 2. 8 ASEAN Charter (December 2008); legal entity; 3 pillars in APSC, AEC and ASCC; ASEAN Community by 2015
2. Southeast Asia as An Organization (cont. ) 2. 9 Underlying dynamics of charter: ¢ Maintaining relevance ¢ ASEAN charter as codification of norms ¢ Non-interference with democratizing principles (Article 1: 7) ¢ ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICOHR); People-centered ASEAN? ¢ A personal encounter
3. Domestic strife and regional effects Perennial Burma/Myanmar albatross; ASSK’s confinement; elections in 2010 ¢ Indonesia’s frustration ¢ Vietnam’s domestic concerns ¢ Cambodia’s posture ¢ Singapore’s imperative ¢ Malaysia’s growing polarization ¢ Philippines’ constraints ¢ Thailand’s nadir ¢
3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont. ) Thai crisis and Thai chairmanship of ASEAN in mid 2008 -09; two years for 4 th East Asia Summit (EAS) ¢ From Pattaya to Preah Vihear ¢ Preah Vihear v. Phra Viharn ¢ Hun Sen-Thaksin and Hun Sen-Abhisit ¢ Thailand’s founding pillar to weakest link (ASSK’s comment and 16 th summit machinations in April 2010) ¢
3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont. ) ASEAN at 42; a midlife crossroads ¢ ASEAN Plus Three; China’s orbit ¢ East Asian Community; Japan’s timid vision ¢ East Asia Summit (ASEAN+6) ¢ East Asia Summit Plus US and Russia? ¢ Australia’s Asia-Pacific Community ¢
3. Domestic strife and regional effects (cont. ) ¢ ¢ ¢ ¢ APEC; ARF (no PD); AFTA (largest markets still external) Trends in bilateral FTAs Trilateral Summit in NEAsia; Six-Party Talks (SPT) sometimes efficacious ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) Shangri-La Dialogue Asian Six in G-20 An architectural search for regional order
4. Premises and prospects Centrality without performance? ¢ Evolution of the “ASEAN Way” ¢ Interests, institutions and identity ¢ Domestic constraints on regionalism ¢ Implications for the US (hub-spokes no more? ) ¢ Glass half-empty or half-full ¢ Shallow and patchy integration (e. g. NTS) but won’t go away ¢
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