Strategy for Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations IGACO

Strategy for Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations (IGACO) Joerg Langen (ESA-ESTEC) on behalf of the IGACO Theme Team INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -1 -

Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership (1/3) Partners • the Global Observing Systems (GOS/GAW, GOOS, GTOS, GCOS) • the international agencies which sponsor the Global Observing Systems (FAO, ICSU, IOC of UNESCO, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO) • the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) • the International Group of Funding Agencies for Global Change Research (IGFA) • the international global change research programmes (WCRP, IGBP) INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -2 -

Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership (2/3) addresses the need to • join forces in Earth Observation globally • fill gaps in existing observation systems • integrate diverse data sets and strengthen institutional capacity to implement integrated global observations • ensure long-term continuity in observation, supporting data policies, enhanced product processing chains, better archiving and improved accessibility to the information products. • improve communication between space agencies, agencies supporting in-situ observing systems, scientific research programmes, and governmental agencies INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -3 -

Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partnership (3/3) Themes • Ocean • Global Carbon Cycle • Global Water Cycle • Geo-Hazards • Atmospheric Chemistry (IGACO) • Coastal (incl. Coral-Reef) • Land INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -4 -

The IGACO Team - Authors • L. Barrie (WMO) (co-chair) • J. Langen (ESA) (co-chair) • P. Borrell (P&PMB Consultants) (secretary) • • • O. Boucher (Univ. Lille) J. Burrows (Univ. Bremen) C. Camy-Peyret (CNRS/LPMA) J. Fishman (NASA-L) E. Hilsenrath (NASA-G) • • • D. Hinsman (WMO) C. Granier (CNRS/SA) H. Kelder / A. Goede (KNMI) V. Mohnen (SUNYA) T. Ogawa (JAXA) T. Peter (Univ. Zürich) M. Proffitt (WMO) A. Volz-Thomas (FZ Jülich) P. -Y. Whung (NOAA) P. Simon (Inst. d’Aeronomie Spatiale de Belgique) INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -5 -

The IGACO Team - Reviewers • U. Platt (Univ. Heidelberg) • H. Akimoto (Adv. Sci & Tech Research Centre, Tokyo) • G. Brasseur (MPI Meteorology, Hamburg) • M. -L. Chanin (SPARC / CNRS, Paris) • P. J. Crutzen (MPI Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz) • N. Harris (European Ozone Research Coordination Unit, Cambridge / UK) • D. Jacob (Harvard Univ. ) • M. J. Molina (MIT, Cambridge / USA) • S. Oltmans (NOAA-CMDL) • A. M. Thompson (NASA – G) INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -6 -

The Objectives of IGACO To initiate a process leading to the implementation of globally coordinated observation and integration programmes within 10 years, by: • • • defining a feasible strategy for deploying a global atmospheric chemistry observation system with comprehensive coverage of key atmospheric gases and aerosols establishing a system for integration of groundbased, airborne and satellite air chemistry observations using atmospheric models making the integrated observations accessible to science, responsibles for environmental policy development and weather / environmental prediction centres INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -7 -

IGACO Strategy § Identify the major societal and scientific issues associated with atmospheric chemistry and composition change; § Recommend a list of target observables using a well defined set of criteria; § Establish the requirements for observations of atmospheric composition and their analysis, integration and utilisation; § Review existing observational systems for the target variables as well as data processing and modelling; § Make recommendations and propose a structure for implementation. INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -8 -

The Issues 1. Air pollution / air quality 2. Climate 3. Stratospheric ozone depletion 4. Atmospheric self-cleansing capability (“oxidising power”) INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) -9 -

Issue 1 : Air Pollution • • • Enhanced levels of aerosols, ozone, NOx , CO etc. in the lower atmosphere Sources: industrial activities, power plants, traffic, heating, anthropogenic biomass burning Deposition effects: acid rain, eutrophication of lakes, damage to the biosphere. Respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases (air pollution kills 60000/y in USA: source EPA) Globalisation through industrialisation and intercontinental transport of pollution IGACO Products: q Localisation and quantification of pollution sources, identification of chemical processing, transport pathways and sinks q Air quality forecast q Monitoring of conventions (e. g. UN-ECE LRTAP) and national legislation q support of impact assessment (e. g. air pollution human health) INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 10 -

Issue 2 : Climate Complex coupling between radiation, transport and chemistry (“climate-chemistry interaction”) • • • Greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, O 3, N 2 O, Halocarbons) and aerosols emitted by human activities are primary forcing agents of climate change. Atmospheric lifetime of CH 4, O 3 and aerosols are chemically controlled High climate sensitivity to GHG conc. in the tropopause region Stratosphere-troposphere-exchange is a major factor for stratospheric H 2 O and upper tropospheric O 3 Climate change impacts on sources, transport, removal of chemicals and hence, distribution of atmospheric constituents IGACO Products: q Scientific assessment of climate change (IPCC, UNFCCC) q Climate prediction and weather forecasting q Contribution to convention monitoring (e. g. CH 4 for Kyoto protocol) INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 11 -

Issue 3 : Stratospheric Ozone Depletion • • Dramatic ozone losses in polar spring (“stratospheric O 3 hole”, last year: diminished early due to circulation anomaly, 2003: full extent) 4% O 3 depletion at mid-latitudes 10% increase in surface UV irradiance Potential for increase in skin cancer and crop damage Source of problem : anthropogenic halocarbon emissions Montreal protocol effective for chlorine but not bromine Recovery time uncertain due to stratospheric cooling and H 2 O increase. IGACO Products: q Monitoring of Vienna Convention / Montreal Protocol and amendments q UV irradiance forecast q Scientific assessment of stratospheric ozone evolution and recovery INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 12 -

Issue 4 : Oxidising Power • • Atmospheric self-cleansing depends on the “detergent” OH OH is very short lived and maintained by a balance between complex “source and sink” chemistry Impact of atmospheric change on OH difficult to predict, due to non-linear chemistry, small-scale processes and uncertainties in sources Effects long-term evolution of chemical balances in the atmosphere major feedback to all other issues as well as cycles of toxic substances (POPs and mercury) IGACO Products: q Scientific assessment of chemical and physical processes, in particular distinction between anthropogenic trends and natural variabilities, as relevant to the other issues INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 13 -

Chemical species Targeted Variables IGACO Group 1 & Group 2 Air Oxidation Climate Quality Capacity O 3 CO UV-A j(NO 2) UV-B j(O 3) H 2 O (water vapour) HCHO C 2 H 6 active nitrogen: NOx = NO+NO 2 reservoir species: HNO 3 SO 2 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion active halogens: Br. O, Cl. O, OCl. O reservoir species: HCl, Cl. ONO 2 sources: CH 3 Br, CFC-12, CFC-11, HCFC-22 aerosol optical properties CO 2 CH 4

Ancillary Variables Critical Ancillary Variables IGACO Air Quality Oxidation Climate Stratospheric Capacity Ozone Depletion T P Wind Speed (u, v, w) Cloud Top Height Cloud Coverage Albedo Lightning Flash Frequency Fire Occurrence Solar Radiation INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 16 -

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Target and threshold requirements for aerosol INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 19 -

The Existing Observational System A. Routine ground-based measurements (in-situ and remote sensing) incl. balloon Accuracy, long-term history, validation source, local/regional relevance B. Systematic aircraft measurements High-resolution tropospheric profiles, tropopause measurements C. Satellite observations Global coverage, uniform data quality D. Chemical models and data assimilation tools Integration, data analysis and exploitation

Stratospheric O 3

A. Routine Ground-Based Measurements Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) coordinates WMO network with contributing-partner networks to complete global coverage. 1. Ozone sonde network for vertical profiles(WMO, NASA) 2. Dobson/Brewer network total column ozone (WMO, space agencies) 3. Networks for CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O (WMO with NOAA/CMDL major player) 4. Aerosol optical depth (WMO, NASA) 1. Calibration issues 2. Diverse organisational structures INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 22 -

B. Systematic Aircraft Measurements • • MOZAIC – O 3, H 2 O, CO, NOy, since 1994 and grab sampling package – CO 2, CH 4, CO, since 1993 CARIBIC – one aircraft, new, many species, now twice per month Vertical profiles CO 2, CH 4, initiated, frequent flights GAW led by NOAA-CMDL Several demonstration programmes for aerosols (ARM and NOAA/CMDL) Ø Unique measurements but still limited species / space / time coverage Ø Sampling biases INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 26 -

C. Satellite Observations • • Ø Ø Near-continuous record of total column ozone since 1978, commitments for continuation well into next decade; demonstration of tropospheric ozone retrieval CO, NO 2, HCHO, Br. O, SO 2 are under development Aerosol optical depth, considerable coverage over oceans and, now, over continents as well. Good coverage of stratospheric species in research mode, much less in troposphere Spatial and temporal resolution inadequate for troposphere Vertical resolution inadequate for UTLS Very limited commitments after 2008 Need more systematic calibration/validation and archiving

D. Chemical Models and Data Assimilation Tools • Ø Chemical transport models (chemistry driven by external met data) Interactive chemistry-climate models (chemical processes part of the climate simulation) Weather forecast models with ozone and aerosols dynamically incorporated. Spatial resolution needs improvement (variability within model grid box, sampling consistency between model and measurements) Quality of emission inventories insufficient • Ø Chemical data assimilation (incl. forecast) Demonstrated and developing fast • Major application inverse modelling (retrieval of surface sources and sinks) starting but inhibited by lack of observational data • • Ø Ø

RECOMMENDATIONS A Phased Approach: (I) Short Term: 2004 to 2014 • • Integrate data of group 1 species Build up observation system for group 2 species (II) Long Term: beyond 2014 • Operate complete integrated observation system INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 29 -

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Observations Establish long-term continuous observation system satisfying IGACO data requirements by: q Adding missing ground-based measurements for Group 1 variables, and, where feasible, some of those from Group 2 (in situ, total column, active and passive profiling, and balloon sonde) q Developing robust routine aircraft measurements for all the feasible species. An instrument development programme aimed at the operating environment of aircraft is most desirable q Initiating immediately the planning of a network of satellite measurements for the long term with priority to adding GEO instruments to a complementary set of LEOs

The Long Term Satellite System Should Include: A tropospheric mission to address air quality, climate and oxidizing power: Geostationary satellites (or larger number of polar orbiting satellites) with nadir-viewing instruments. An upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric mission to address climate-chemistry interaction and stratospheric ozone depletion : Polar orbiting sun-synchronous satellites with limb-viewing instruments

Quality Assurance Ground-based and routine aircraft data : q Use internationally traceable standard reference materials or reference methods q Conduct routine comparison activities to link diverse measurements together q harmonize data quality between stations and networks

Quality Assurance Satellite Operations Should Include: q Pre-launch instrument calibration & characterisation and in-flight calibration q Long term ground validation q Systematic validation of vertical profile observations

Data Processing and Distribution Should Include q Development of automated retrieval of total column and profile data from existing and planned satellites for all targeted variables q Systematic reprocessing of data following algorithm improvements q Establishment of universally recognised data distribution protocols q Establishment of multi-stakeholder World Integrated Data Archive Centres (WIDACs) for targeted variables INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 35 -

Models : the tool for integration q develop comprehensive chemical modules in weather and climate models with appropriate data assimilation q develop inverse modelling using data assimilation to improve chemical source and sink characterization INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 36 -

IGACO status and further schedule Draft report available Comments received from IGOS-P and IGACO review team Refinements and implementation of comments ongoing Presentation to CEOS-SIT, February 2004 Presentation to IGOS-P and aim for approval, May 2004 INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 40 -

The IGOS Process International and national Scientific Social Economic and Political drivers Redesign systems Assess Requirements for Observations Evaluate capabilities of Observational systems Implementation Monitor progress Assess implementation of systems Evaluate usefulness of products Use Resultant Products Collect Observations and Generate Products Decide what needs to be changed Obtain commitments for change Change the Observational systems Enhance the product processing chain Deploy improved observational assets & improve use of existing ones INTEGRATED GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY OBSERVATIONS (IGACO) - 41 -