Stockholm international peaсe research institute (SIPRI) Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.
Lavrov Meets Kerry In Berlin
Lavrov Meets Kerry In Berlin • The five-hour meeting with Lavrov in Berlin -- Kerry's first as secretary of state -- comes at a time of heightened tensions between Washington and Moscow. The two spent half of their time discussing Syria. • Lavrov called on the United States to press the Syrian opposition to hold direct talks with Damascus, saying that Syrians must resolve their problems by themselves.
Lavrov Meets Kerry In Berlin • Lavrov described his talks with Kerry as constructive. He said in addition to Syria, the two discussed events in other Arab countries, the Middle East and Afghanistan, and cooperation on the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs. • Kerry is also set to meet with leaders in France, Italy, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. (Britain, Germany)
John Forbes Kerry (born December 11, 1943) graduate from Yale University class of 1966 • Kerry based his 2004 presidential campaign on opposition to the Iraq War. (just 19 short of the 270 required for election) • confirmed by the U. S. Senate by a vote of 94– 3 on January 29, 2013, Kerry assumed the office on February 1, 2013.
US foreign policy • Obama renewed U. S. commitments to protect its ally Japan, including with nuclear weapons, in the wake of North Korea’s nuclear test. • Obama “reaffirmed that the United States remains steadfast in its defense commitments to Japan, including the extended deterrence offered by the U. S. nuclear umbrella. ” • Kerry did not detail what measures could be taken in response to North Korea’s third underground nuclear test explosion on February 12. • But he said that “just as it is impermissible for North Korea to pursue this kind of reckless effort, ” it is also “impermissible" for Iran.
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iran's top nuclear negotiator Said Jalili at the Iran talks in Almaty.
Talks in Almaty • Representatives of the six world powers -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany -- are meeting with Iranian nuclear negotiators in Almaty. • A spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said the world powers did not expect a breakthrough agreement in Almaty. Ashton oversees contacts with Iran on behalf of the six powers. • "We have seen nothing but maximum demands made by both sides. So I am not optimistic about the outcome of the talks in Almaty. I think there won't be a breakdown, but I don't think there will be a breakthrough either. “
Sweden (officially the Kingdom of Sweden) 9, 5; Stockholm, Swedish krona
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) • An independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. • In 1964, Prime Minister Tage Erlander of Sweden put forward the idea of establishing a peace research institute to commemorate Sweden's 150 years of unbroken peace. • The Swedish Parliament decided that the Institute be established on 1 July 1966 with the legal status of an independent foundation. All SIPRI research is based exclusively on open sources.
SIPRI's headquarters in Solna
SIPRI’s organization consists of a Governing Board, Director, Deputy Director, Research Staff Collegium and support staff. • The staff of about 50 persons is international. • The researchers are recruited for a specific project period and represent various academic disciplines. • Located in Sweden, the Institute offers a unique platform for researchers from different countries to work in close cooperation. • Among Current members of the Governing Board: Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia), Deputy Director, IMEMO (Institute of World Economy and International Relations)
SIPRI’s publications and information material are distributed to a wide range of policy makers and the interested public. • SIPRI’s main publication, the SIPRI Yearbook, was first published on 12 November 1969. • The Yearbook serves as a single authoritative and independent source to which politicians, diplomats and journalists can turn for an account of what has happened during the past year in armaments and arms control, armed conflicts and conflict resolution, security arrangements and disarmament. • It is translated into a number of other languages, notably Russian, Ukrainian, Chinese and Arabic.
Uppsala University is the oldest university in Sweden, founded in 1477 • The university was officially given the same freedoms and privileges as the University of Bologna. • Anders Celsius (1701 – 1744) • In 1742 he proposed the Celsius temperature scale which takes his name. The scale was inverted in 1745 by Carl Linnaeus, one year after Celsius' death from tuberculosis. • On the request of SIPRI in Uppsala University a special methodic on conflict characteristics had been worked out
The main building of the university library,
The University of Bologna is a university located in Bologna, Italy, founded in 1088 • It is widely recognized as the oldest university in continuous operation, considering that it was the first to use the term universitas for the corporations of students and masters which came to define the institution. • Bologna process started in 1988 (80 countries), in 1999 – 1 st conference on European higher education: Declaration on Zone of Europe high education (2010) • 2003 – RF signed this Declaration • Bologna Follow-up Group (BFUG) Berlin - 2003
Area above Bologna's old city center.
Conflict characteristics Global conflicts (World wars, Caribbean crisis, Cold war) Regional conflicts (Arab-Israel confrontation, Arab spring, North Korea war, Vietnam war, nuclear disputes with North Korea and Iran) • Local conflicts • (Chechnya, Georgia, Indonesia's occupation of East Timor) • •
Conflicts differ on several points Number of participating sites The character and intensity of conflict interaction On what ground contradictions exists The real essence of conflict The correlation of national interests of participating sites • Conflict Outcomes (Zero-sum and Non-zero-sum situations) • • •
Political conflicts • The main reason – fighting for power • The state is a result of political struggle • The state is a public organ to pacify differences among classes or political parties • The state is one of the more or less internally autonomous territorial and political units under a sovereign government
Reasons of political conflict • Political conflict often arises when one party, or political figure, has the power to make changes that other party is opposed to. • There are numerous "value" issues that cause political conflict around the world. • Usually governments have been overthrown due to the feeling of the population that those in power were incapable or illegitimate. • In some cases, the majority may believe that a ruler has enacted brutal policies against his own people. • This belief is often the catalyst for citizens of that nation to rebel in order to alleviate the suffering of their people and replace a corrupt government with what they hope will be a government that is fair and just.
On power Centers on 2 things: Domination Influence The question of who has power in society becomes a question of who has political power • Everyone wants power! Power can be used to influence people, maintain control and even force decision-making. • •
On power • A pervasive control of the government is an exercise of political dominance • Examples: masters dominating slaves, aristocrats dominating commoners, rich dominating the poor… in history in different countries, religious hierarchy, upper class, and political have exercised dominance over the government
On power • Domination is predominant mode of political power in authoritarian regimes • Here the political clique monopolizes governmental authority and imposes its will on the population • In totalitarian society law and justice has no difference • Law is a privilege of a ruler of a country
On democracy • Influence is predominant mode of exercising political power in democracies • Where the government plays a mediating role society’s main groups such as business, labor, middle class, religious groups, ethnic groups, ets. may influence the government to help them out or favor them… • In democratic society conflicts open for public (public law creates public justice)
Horizontal & Vertical Conflict • Horizontal Conflict happens with participants who are on the same level of power (change of leadership of any country by conspiracy) • Vertical Conflict occurs when problems develop between different power levels of participants; between leadership and society • Democracy will not guaranty you paradise but will not allow hell to get an upper hand
Latest tendencies The research and findings in SIPRI Yearbook 2011 highlight three important security-related themes that have stood out in recent years: • Intensifying non-state influence; • The emergence of global and regional powers; • Increasing institutional inefficiency, uncertainty and weakness.
The security governance system • The institutions, agreements and processes intended to manage the challenges of global and regional security, armaments and disarmament— is under mounting pressure from within and outside. • States continue to be the dominant security actors, but SIPRI Yearbook 2011 underscores the growing importance of non- and quasi-state actors in shaping the global and regional security scene.
Lack of the security governance • Powers that previously took the lead to bolster security governance at global and regional levels are less able to do so and have been weakened by the global financial crisis. • In light of these challenges, the world is likely to face a difficult period of growing uncertainty and fragility, and a diffusion of risks and threats.
MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS, 2010: • In 2010, 15 major armed conflicts were active in 15 locations around the world. • Conflict location: • Africa • Rwanda*↓ • Somalia↑ • Sudan↑ • Uganda*↓
MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS, 2010: • • • Americas Colombia Peru↓ USA*↓ Asia Afghanistan↑ India (Kashmir) Myanmar (Karen)↑ Pakistan*↓ Philippines↑
MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS, 2010: Middle East Iraq↓ Israel (Palestinian territories)↓ Turkey (‘Kurdistan’)* ↑ * Fighting in these conflicts also took place in other locations in 2010. • ↑ Increase in battle-related deaths from 2009. • ↓ Decrease in battle-related deaths from 2009. • • •
MAJOR ARMED CONFLICTS, 2010: • Only 4 of the major armed conflicts in 2010 were over territory, with 11 being fought over government. • Except for the year 2007, conflicts over government outnumbered those over territory in every year of the period 2001– 10. • For the seventh year running, no major interstate conflict was active in 2010. • Over the decade 2001– 10, only 2 of the total of 29 major armed conflicts have been interstate.
The Global Peace Index 2011: • The Global Peace Index (GPI) seeks to determine what cultural attributes and institutions are associated with states of peace. • The Global Peace Index (GPI) is an attempt to measure the relative position of nations' and regions' peacefulness. • It ranks 158 countries by their relative states of peace using 23 indicators.
The Global Peace Index • The list was launched first in May 2007, then continued yearly. • The study is the brainchild of Australian entrepreneur Steve Killelea and is endorsed by individuals such as Kofi Annan, the Dalai Lama, archbishop Desmond Tutu, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, economist Jeffrey Sachs, former president of Ireland Mary Robinson, and former US president Jimmy Carter.
The Global Peace Index • • • Number of external and internal wars fought, Estimated deaths due to external wars, Relations with neighboring countries, Political instability Level of respect for human rights Potential for terrorist acts Likelihood of violent demonstrations Number of jailed persons Number of police and security officers Number of armed services personnel Exports of major conventional weapons Military capability or sophistication
The main findings of the Global Peace Index • Peace is correlated to indicators such as income, schooling and the level of regional integration • Peaceful countries often shared high levels of transparency of government and low corruption • Small, stable countries which are part of regional blocks are most likely to get a higher ranking
Rank Country Score: • • • 1 Iceland 1. 148 2 New Zealand 1. 279 3 Japan 1. 287 4 Denmark 1. 289 5 Czech Republic 1. 320 88 US 2. 058 152 North Korea 2. 932 153 Russia 2. 938 154 Congo 3. 073 155 Iraq 3. 192 156 Sudan 3. 193 158 Somalia 3. 392 • Iceland regained first place due to restored political stability. • Island nations generally fare well, with most in the top half of the GPI, as do small, stable and democratic countries.
PEACE OPERATIONS, 2010: • A total of 52 multilateral peace operations were conducted in 2010, in 33 locations. • Two peace operations closed during 2010, making it the second consecutive year in which the total number of operations fell.
PEACE OPERATIONS, 2010: • The upward trend in the total number of personnel deployed to peace operations continued to gather pace, with totals increasing by 20 per cent between 2009 and 2010, to reach 262 842. • Of these, 91 per cent were military personnel, 6 per cent were civilian police and 3 per cent were civilian staff.
PEACE OPERATIONS, 2010: • The main reason for this significant increase was reinforcement of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operation in Afghanistan run by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). • Troop level increased from 84 146 in 2009 to 131 730 in 2010, an increase of 57 per cent. For the fifth year running, ISAF was the largest multilateral peace operation. • Indeed, the number of troops deployed with ISAF exceeded the total number of personnel deployed to all other operations combined.
PEACE OPERATIONS, 2010: • The United Nations continued to be the main conductor of peace operations in 2010. • The African Union (AU) was the only organization besides NATO to significantly increase its personnel deployments
Peace operations, by organization, 2010 • Conducting • organization • • • No. of operations Total personnel deployed United Nations 20 103 404 African Union 1 7 999 CEEAC 1 880 CIS 1 452 EU 12 4 606 NATO 3 140 354 OAS 1 30 OSCE 7 363 Ad hoc coalition 6 3 754 Total 52 262 842
The top 10 military spenders, 2010 • • • • Spending World Rank Country ($ b. ) share (%) 1 USA 698 43 2 China [119] [7. 3] 3 UK 59. 6 3. 7 4 France 59. 3 3. 6 5 Russia [58. 7] [3. 6] 6 Japan 54. 5 3. 3 7 Saudi Arabia 45. 2 2. 8 8 Germany [45. 2] [2. 8] 9 India 41. 3 2. 5 10 Italy [37. 0] [2. 3] World total 1630 [ ] = SIPRI estimate.
The top 10 military spenders, 2010: • The 10 largest military spenders in 2010 accounted for 75 per cent of world military spending. • The USA alone accounted for 43 per cent, far more than China in second place. • The share of their GDPs that the major spenders devoted to military spending (the military burden) varied considerably, from just 1. 0 per cent in the case of Japan to 10. 4 per cent for Saudi Arabia. • However, only 3 of the top 10 spenders—Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA—have military burdens above the global average of 2. 6 per cent.
National or regional shares of arms sales for the SIPRI Top 100 for 2009 • Region/ No. of Arms sales country companies ($ b. ) • USA 45 247. 2 • Western Europe 33 120. 3 • Russia 6 9. 2 • Japan 4 6. 5 • Israel 3 6. 3 • India 3 4. 5 • South Korea 2 1. 9 • Kuwait 1 2. 5 • Singapore 1. 5 • Canada 1 0. 7 • Turkey 1 0. 6 • Total 100 400. 7
Pacific Settlement of Disputes • Pacific Settlement of Disputes means use by conflict participants every possible international procedures and law facilities for the declining of aroused tensions strictly in peaceful way without any compulsion • PSD - gives reason a chance to prevail above political ambitions and slow down the mood for the development of a dispute toward war
Pacific Settlement of Disputes • 1899 Convention for the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes • Article 1 • With a view to obviating, as far as possible, recourse to force in the relations between States, the Signatory Powers agree to use their best efforts to insure the pacific settlement of international differences. • 2 October, 1920 The League of Nations Protocol for the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes
The Charter of the United Nations (was signed on 26 June 1945, in San Francisco) • • Chapter VI: Pacific Settlement of Disputes Chapter VII: Action with Respect to Threats to the Peace, Breaches of the Peace and Acts of Aggression
Chapter VI: Pacific Settlement of Disputes • Article 33 • 1. The parties to any dispute, • the continuance of which is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security, • shall, first of all, • seek a solution by • negotiation,
Pacific Settlement of Disputes • • enquiry, mediation, conciliation, arbitration, judicial settlement, resort to regional agencies or arrangements, or other peaceful means of their own choice.
Pacific Settlement of Disputes • • 2. The Security Council shall, when it deems necessary, call upon the parties to settle their dispute by such means.
Article 34 • The Security Council may investigate any dispute, or any situation which might lead to international friction or give rise to a dispute, • in order to determine • whether the continuance of the dispute or situation is likely to endanger the maintenance of international peace and security.
Article 35 • 1. Any Member of the United Nations may bring any dispute, or any situation of the nature referred to in Article 34, to the attention of the Security Council or of the General Assembly. • 2. A state which is not a Member of the United Nations may bring to the attention of the Security Council or of the General Assembly any dispute to which it is a party if it accepts in advance, for the purposes of the dispute, the obligations of pacific settlement provided in the present Charter.
CHAPTER VII: ACTION WITH RESPECT TO THREATS TO THE PEACE, BREACHES OF THE PEACE, AND ACTS OF AGGRESSION • Article 39: • The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.
Article 41 • The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. • These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.
Article 42 • Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. • Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.
Article 51 • Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. • Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defense shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.
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