Stefan Kuhlmann Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation

Stefan Kuhlmann Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Karlsruhe, Germany Policymaking for Innovation: the Role of Distributed Intelligence 1 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Overview n Analysing the dynamics of „innovation systems“ n From ”mechanistic" to ”reflexive" innovation strategies and policymaking n Arenas for decision-making n Strategic Intelligence (SI) for Innovation Strategy and Policy: tools n General requirements of SI n Application of SI (examples) n Fictions of future use of Distributed Intelligence n SI infrastructures for Distributed Intelligence 2 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Focus: Dynamics of Innovation Systems Economic system, globalising, prod. & services Political system and state, europeanising Innovation system (hybrid) Co-evolution Education and science system, europeanising 3 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

From "Mechanistic" to ”Reflexive" Innovation Strategies and Policymaking (I) Strategy targets: interdisciplinary instit. ), from competitiveness of single companies, to linking science & industry, to modernisation of holdings, sectors, regions, and national "innovation systems” (e. g. development Potential impacts/benefits: change Policy means: to “post-national” strategies across levels (in EU), to socio-economic change and sustainable from r&d results, to innovative products/processes, to raising awareness of innovation needs, to increasing learning and "absorptive capacities", to individual and institutional from r&d subsidies to adoption of new technologies, to liaison/brokerage services, to continuing education, to regulatory policies, 4 to multi-purpose, multi-actor initiatives, ISI to “post-nationally” orchestrated multi-level initiatives Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

From "Mechanistic" to "Reflexive" Innovation Strategies and Policymaking (II) Policy actors: international), from sectoral policymakers/beneficiaries, to industrial innovation networks (increasingly to multi-sector/multilevel policy networks (stretching science through industry and policymakers to consumer orgs. and NGOs) Strategic policy development (public and private): from path dependency/ institutional conservatism, to performance measurement (legitimization) to socio-economic assessment of mid-term performance to reflexive policy learning with contesting stakeholders need for “multi-perspective” learning, foresight ISI and planning: i. e. “Strategic Intelligence (SI)" Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research 5

Innovation Policy Stakeholders’ Arena National research centers Contract research institutes Multinational companie s SME associations Industrial associations n Differing interests, perspectives and values n No dominant player? n Contested policies n Need for consensus? Strategic Research councils Intelligence Universities National research ministry National parliament Regional governments Consumer groups Environment groups Other national ministries EU Commission 6 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Distributed Arenas and Strategic Intelligence. . . European innovation policy arena National innovation policy arena A National innovation policy arena D SI SI SI Regional innovation policy arena B Thematic innovation policy arena C Archit 1. ppt SI SI Folie 8 8 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Dynamics of Innovation Systems and Strategic Intelligence Economic system, globalising, prod. & services Political system and state, europeanising Sectors, technologies: retrospectively, prospectively Innovation system (hybrid) Education and science system, europeanising Innovation processes: micro, meso, macro Actors: Companies Science Policymakers Analyses & methods: Evaluation (ex post, monitoring, ex ante) Delphi, scenarios, TA Policy-analysis Institutional analysis Statist. -econometrical analyses Network analysis Indicators: corportate data Sectorial techno-eco-nomic performance Bibliometrics Regulatory data (e. g. norms, standards) 9 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Applying Strategic Intelligence: General Requirements n Create fora for interaction, negotiation and the preparation of decisions n Organize mediation processes and “discourses“ between contesting actors in related policy arena n Realize thereby the multiplicity of actor's values and interests n Include representatives of less organized or weaker societal groups of society (participatory approach) n Inject SI, i. e. policy/strategy evaluation, foresight and TA results, also analyses of changing innovation processes, the dynamics of changing research systems, changing functions of public policies n Facilitate a more “objective” formulation of diverging perceptions by offering appropriate indicators, analyses and information-processing mechanisms 1 4 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Emergence of Strategic Intelligence - the Example of Regional Technology Plans Regional Innovation Policy Arena etc. . . EU Commission initiating and supporting. . . Use of foresight results Evaluation of region. initiatives Analysis of industrial demand 1 5 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Combining Foresight Results with Evaluation Purposes - Example: System Evaluation of the Fraunhofer Society (Fh. G) Example: Life Sciences Competencies of Fh. G Institutes ( 10 researchers p. a. per 1 institute) Potential Research Market (RETIED Index): § Need for research infrastructure (RE) § Time horizon (TI) § Contribution to economic development (ED) Variety of „Delphi Visions“ (Foresight) 1 6 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

SI Infrastructures for Distributed Strategic Intelligence n Create an architecture of “infrastructures” for Distributed intelligence – but not the one monolithic/top-down “system” ! n Link – via SI infrastructure – the existing regional, national, sectorial etc SI facilities, horizontally and vertically n Build brokering “nodes” managing and maintaining the infrastructure (e. g. IPTS, ESTO, . . . ) n Offer a “directory” favouring direct connections between relevant actors n Establish a “enabling structure” allowing free access to all SI exercises undertaken with public support (“register”) n Define clear rules to access the infrastructure n Make the infrastructure robust, able to survive; guarantee adequate resources 2 0 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Distributed Strategic Intelligence: an Architecture European innovation policy arena National innovation policy arena A National innovation policy arena D SI SI SI Regional innovation policy arena B “EU Research Area” requires SI: Quality assurance • Identification of „centres of excellence“ (indicators? arenas? ) • Benchmarking of national research Brokering policies (indicators? arenas? ) node(s) • others. . . Archit 1. ppt SI Thematic innovation policy arena C SI Folie 21 2 1 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Quality Assurance for Distributed Strategic Intelligence n Facilitate repeated and “fresh” exercises and information production (e. g. EV, TF, TA, benchmarking, . . . ) and renewed combinations of actors and levels n Support strong professional associations n Use informal expert networks (like the “Six Countries Programme”) n Create accreditation mechanisms n Support education and training (e. g. postgraduate interdisciplinary studies) 2 2 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

U r s a c h e u n d W i r k u n g. - Vor der Wirkung glaubt man an andere Ursachen als nach der Wirkung. Friedrich Nietzsche, Die fröhliche Wissenschaft, Aphorismus 217, 1882 Cause and impact. - Before any impact you believe in other causes than after the impact. 2 3 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research

Text: Kuhlmann, S. / Boekholt, P. / Georghiou, L. / Guy, K. / Héraud, J. -A. / Laredo. Ph. / Lemola, T. / Loveridge, D. / Luukkonen, T. / Polt, W. / Rip, A. / Sanz-Menendez, L. / Smits, R. : Improving Distributed Intelligence in Complex Innovation Systems. Final report of the Advanced Science & Technology Policy Planning Network (ASTPP), a Thematic Network of the European Targeted Socio-Economic Research Programme (TSER), Brussels/Luxembourg 1999 (Office for Official Publications of the European Communities) (download www. isi. fhg. de/dept/ti/) 2 4 ISI Fraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation Research