Steele on Intelligence What can we know how

Steele on Intelligence What can we know, how? Reflections on the near future. Google versus the CIA—Five Year Outlook Robert David Steele Vivas Hackers in Santa Cruz 13 November 2005 A copy of these slides are at www. oss. net Modern IO Portal Page Dated Today (Last Link)

Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

Potential Earnings I Ad Hoc Information Purchase Curve for Current Western Base of Individual Users Only 10 25 50 1 C 2 C 3 C 5 C 1 K 2 K 3 K 5 K This is an ugly best guess at what the Google population would spend, per year, if they could do one click information purchases from multiple sources--you do the math….

Federal Marketplace State & Local Marketplace US Spends Today: $5000 M 50 States Spend Today: $0 Needs to Spend: $1. 5 B Need to Spend: $1. 5 B in HS funds ($30 M/state) for 50 Community Intelligence Centers/networks Other Governments Should Spend an Equal Amount. TOTAL: $4 B/Year Others should follow along. TOTAL: $3 B/Year Corporate Marketplace Associational Marketplace Multinationals Today: $25 B UN, Red Cross, others: $100 M • Mostly “BI” or IT internal DM Need to Spend: $1 B+ • Mediocre sense-making or external à la carte small stuff Need to GIVE Google: Raw information Small Business Today: $1 B Should Increase by 10 X TOTAL: $250 B/Year Religions, Clans, and Citizen Intelligence are the Wild Cards--potential for Google customers alone is $8 B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a year, with $500 as the average.

Plan for the Briefing 1000 Sunday Where GIS Was • • 4 minutes on State of the World and the US 4 minutes of where Google appears to be 4 minutes on state of the art (Silobreaker) 4 minutes on sources in context 4 minutes on emerging technical standards 4 minutes of ethics and morality 4 minutes on the White Paper for OSIS-X 4 minute wrap on saving Google from itself

World War III Players Nation. States Private Sector Bacteria Citizens Gangs Mother Earth Water-Air-Green

Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Has actually gotten better, the UN, although corrupt, is working! Pol Terror Level 3 Imprisonment, executions Pol Terror Level 4 Large numbers, torture Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman Pol Terror Level 5 Entire public, no limits

Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

Water & War Hyper-Arid 1 3 4 Arid 5 Semi-Arid 6 Sub-Humid Water Pollution 2 Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Global Threats to Local Survival Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Food Security 33 Countries Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Corruption Common 80 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries *State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002

What I Told Congress & US 1: You May Not Be Interested in Reality, But Reality is Interested in You Of course no one listened. We have to shake the people awake and teach them that information is power. Information is a substitute for violence, capital, labor, time, and space. Information can create stabilizing indigenous wealth. Corrupt governments and immoral corporations or gangs destroy this option. Good news: Collective Popular Intelligence is Emergent

The Google Legacy • Supercomputer • 1/3 rd rack cost, optimized LINUX for speed— 10 X performance @ half price • Plug in racks/centers • Inherent back-up • Geospatially aware • Open Office soon? • Going to hand-held as global access point

State of the Art • • Will blow through these It’s not about separate sources anymore It’s not about human reading anymore It’s about integrating everything: – Collecting relevant offline information – Machine-aided collation & exploitation – Connecting experts and their students – Presenting the information is a compelling way

OVERVIEW Start with an overview of what is happening in general in you area of interest

FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360 Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your area of interest

FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATION See specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention

FOCUS ON A PERSON Photos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details

GET NEW INSIGHTS This is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools

READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXT Anything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied

Silobreaker Advances on Google • This costs $400 a year at full price. • Offered at $200 until the end of the year. • Test it free for seven days by following the link at www. oss. net. • This has been my secret weapon for years, now we are commoditizing it and moving on to more complex challenges—creating a World Brain.

Sources • • All information, all languages, all the time Going back 200 years, digitizing hardcopy 185 languages, 33 of them “core” 12 relevant dialects of Arabic Must follow television, radio, audio, street 80% of this, at least, is overlooked by IC Cannot be made sense of by single individual

Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding Digital English Language Oral/Unpublished NRO NSA Foreign Languages* Analog FBIS UN/STATE CIA/DO Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect *33 predominant languages, over 3, 000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.

Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination More Satisfying 50% 0% Less Costly Does Not Exist OSINT HUMINT STATE SIGINT IMINT MASINT 50%

Seven Views of Reality Not sharing, not listening, costs us. Religions & Clans National NGO & Media Military Academic Law Enforcement Business

New Craft of Intelligence China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused! I IV Lessons of History Spies & Secrecy II III Global Coverage National Intelligence Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Technologies • Cell phone, not PC, will be primary access • XML, Geocoding, standards, are making data smart—the context is in the content • IBM just linked DB 2 with Google Enterprise —when we add CISCO AON and CISCO IPICS, we will have a globally distributed instantly exploitable World Brain • Foreign language man-machine networks and distributed advanced analytics will add value • Gaming, not reports, will rule

Five Technical Trends • Cell phones allow for constant pervasive data entry including streaming video/audio, and for instant locationally-aware receipt of relevant intelligence • Googlization of intelligence, when enhanced, will put industrial era spies and aggregators out of business—CIA, Factiva, LEXIS, DIALOG--dead • Open Hypertext Document (OHD) from Bootstrap (Doug Englebart) allows links, discovery, and micro-cash purchase at the paragraph level • Synthetic information breaks the copyright chains—can still pay by the paragraph, but can also create new synthetic knowledge that is original • Virtual reality games, not reports, will teach, inspire, allow for safe testing of different scenarios and investment strategies.

Ethics & Morality • Secrecy is pathological—secrets can be ignored and manipulated—witness Iraq • Secrecy displaces dialog—cult of secrecy • Secrecy enables corruption & treason—not just by governments but by corporations (Enron), Media (NYT, medical journals), and religions (Catholic Church) • Secrecy undermines social understanding of reality and allows rich to steal from the poor

A Revolution is Underway Peer-to-Peer Distributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL OLD SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE -ORGANIZATION EQUITIES LEADERS DECIDE SECRET SOURCES & METHODS TIME IMPACT SHORT OBSCURE DETAIL TIME IMPACT LONG OBVIOUS DETAIL OPEN SOURCES & METHODS PEOPLE DECIDE MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES NEW BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

Teen-Agers are Center of Gravity • World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers • Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35 • Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures • Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.

Reality Won’t Go Away • End of cheap oil cascades across everything • End of free water is actually a bigger threat • Rise of pandemic mutating infectious disease could rebalance populations • Rise of crime and corruption reflects the failure of all governments, including USA, to adapt to fast-changing real world issues • Collective popular intelligence is in a race for life, a race that will determine our future.

Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved By Changing When & How We Intervene • Public warning can change public policy – – – More Prevention More Peacekeeping More Education More Long-Term Aid Less Corruption Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. Between Google and Wikis, Moral Democracy Possible

IV - Organizational Intelligence Out-Sourcing of Information Processing Organizational Memory System Data Visualization E-Commerce EXTERNAL CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) Patents, Etc. Meta-Data Automated Analysis Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Data Conversion Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring Customer Monitoring Trade Secrets TECHNICAL Project/Group Management III - External Information Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Expert Hires “Just Enough, Just in Time” Business Intelligence Institutionalized Local Knowledge HUMAN Training Personal Brand Cell # Churning (Rotationals) Internal Reporting INTERNAL I - Knowledge Management PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Trip Reports II - Collaborative Work

The Open Loop / Unclassified System: Open Sources (Completely unconstrained random sources with random training and experience; with native language and area experience; and orthogonal to the common “correct” Do. D/ Intel analysis and reporting) Global Sources Only Total Access to All Data and Analysis from All Sources will Validate Specific Data Global Language and Area Analysis (Open market access to global domain expertise, and language/area expertise To review, integrate, synthesize, report From accurate real time details and context; With direct access to sources/authors; From the “street corner not the cubicle”) (Open access to web, on-line, broadcast, published, posted sources internal VPNs; From all sources, from all points of view, and all authors; Expressed in real time, in geo spatial terms, and local context. ) Multiple Global Language Sources (Foreign language sources captured and processed; and indexed and available directly in the vernacular language and dialect; With accurate details and context; and access to sources and authors) We need to live in the Real World of Open Sources and Open Analysis

DB 2/Omni. Find Client Standard Management Hub IR&D Funding Cleared Multi-Lingual Operational Support in the Field Google Enterprise Googleplex Leased See Sub-State Slices + Content-Based Routing PDA & Disk Level Security Overnight Hard-Copy from Everywhere “Inside the Book” and Migrate Toward Localized Digitization Ranking Applied to Foreign OSINT Pioneer Decision-Support Pioneer + + Data Mining Pioneers Networking Pioneer Global Geospatial Pioneer S-Minds OSINT-DS Toolkit & Sources Anonymous Access Chief Scientist & Architect + Machine Translation Pioneer Hand-Held C 4 I Terminals Installed Base Anonymizer Influentials by Name

Education Everywhere All Levels United Nations Law Enforcement All NGOs, World Bank, IMF Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally Goal is all UN information including Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open in all countries, we field reports in real time, beginning research information including all student dissertations give them OSIS-X with complex PKI of Do. D interest to OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit free to obtain and networking of all NGO We get their organizations privacy OK & (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “ eyes & ears on the ground. to pay for access, but we protection by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct world-wide. find a way to recruit 1 PB/Yr 1 observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to GWOT data them as individuals change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, benefits. to meet our 5 PB/Yr 2 on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social client needs 10 PB/Yr 3 networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus on on the side. restoring education and research as the engines for wealth production through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, we focus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation. Labor Unions & Religions Journalists Pay with information $1 B/Yr 3 Pay with cash & information $111 B/Yr 10 Citizens & Advocacy Groups U. S. Based Corporations It’s no longer about the collection of information or Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in the communication of information. The next big IT or KM, internally focused. Do. D Spending $15 B a year now on data thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to USG mining and related IT-driven ideas. people, and people to people. We do this with an $250 M/Yr 1 intelligent network and a focus on semantic Two tracks: one with our 10 X Do. D team members and web/synthetic information architecture technology, $500 M/Yr 2 their best big clients, and the empowerment of individuals so that they with 1 -3 year the other $1 B/Yr 3 can create and share knowledge in real time commoditizing without organizational, legal, security, cultural, for small lag time. $1 B is half what USDI was or language impediments. businesses. prepared to authorize at FOC The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, Foreign Language Conversion in a funded by Do. D, for all of USG with coherent manner that creates added NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as value for each contract, a compelling the ultimate beneficiary. The language sales point and a barrier to entry for our capability can help us capture 911 now. competitors who miss the big picture.

DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad Intelink-X USA DGI, GIC, GSC World Intelligence Network Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping USA Earns Nobels Across S&T Funded by Do. D, Fed By OSIS-X GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations) OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals) General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant. Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.

OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM Historical Memory 2 3 1 Present You Are Here. . . Near Future Far Future # = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global

Example 4. Global ST Community: Linking Science / Technology / Bio-Medical Expertise What is our current scientific/technical TOPIC knowledge; and WHO are the EXPERTS? Commercial Science Community Corporate Research Traditional Published Journals On-Line Published Journals Content Distributors Individuals Academic Science Community University Research Professional Societies US NGO Funded Research Global NGO Funded Research Individuals VPN & Internet Sources USG Science Community Science Regional Analysis Affairs Bureaus & Policy NIH STAS EA NSF OES SA Do. D NP NEA Do. E VC AF USDA WHA Other Federal & State Agencies EUR USG VPN IO Intelligence and Research CIA Policy Planning Staff SP NSA DIA IC Legislative Affairs White House Liaison State Department Networks Semantic Architecture Network Intel & Analysis IC Networks

OLD PARADIGM NEW PARADIGM Secrecy rules Elites rules Act on 2% of the info. People complacent Short-term view Unilateral militarism Immoral capitalism Big stick works BUT Long-term cost not visible to public Public Memory 2 3 1 Reality You Are Here. . . Foreign Viewpoints Gaming Future ROIs Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets

Finished Intelligence and Reporting Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Desktop Publishing and Word Processing A Collaborative Work B C Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Clustering and Linking of Related Data Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Graphic and Map. Based Visualization of Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Automated Foreign Language Translation Open Literature Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Structured Argument Analysis Modeling and Simulations Detection of Changing Trends Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Non-Text Data Detection of Alert Situations Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Restricted Information

SECRET BIG DATA NOT SECRET BIG DATA • NSA-NGA • UN, Red Cross, NGOs… • SAIC • NASA , public geospatial • HARRIS • Factiva • NG-MS SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA • Intelink S I P R N E T Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X) • LEXIS-NEXIS NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA • CISCO • ARDA • Google/Libraries • ITIC • Amazon Inside the Book • JHU/APL • Napster Plus

HUMINT Point of Entry Raw Produces Actionable Intelligence SIGINT IMINT MASINT OPS OTHER Dots need to be connecting at every level, Including immediately upon ingestion. Processed Raw OPINTEL Finished Intelligence Policy Package Today, one third of the dots connect here. (Collect 2/3 rd, spill half—some say 80%) Public Perception HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT OPS OTHER Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down

Open Literature Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Foreign Language Translation Clustering and Linking of Related Data NE W Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data : In en t. N etw ork Restricted Information Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data tel lig OLD: Non-Text Data Graphic and Map. Based Visualization of Data Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Collaborative Work En ab les Ap pli c Desktop Publishing and Word Processing ati on s. A t. A ll P oin t s Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Detection of Alert Situations Modeling and Simulations Structured Argument Analysis Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review

Paradigm Shift in Information • Dots don’t know they are secret until some human decides this. • Dots gain value from swarming, lose value within compartmentation. • Dots gain value from history and context. • Dots gain value from speed of delivery. • Dots in a foreign language are smarter.

Information for All Four Levels Strategic Planning • History • Context Operational Coordination • Current Awareness • Key Personalities/Motivators Tactical Employment This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing allsource intelligence! • Imagery & Image Maps • Translation Support Acquisition Design • Strategic Generalizations • Critical Technologies

Inter-Agency Collaboration 80% Unclassified Information ? ? SERVICE CLUSTER INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER ? ? R 2 NGO CLUSTER J-2 J-1 MP ? J-3 SOJICC J-4 Eng ? LEA CLUSTER CG CIVIL CLUSTER J-5 CA ? J-6 IT COALITION CLUSTER ?

Teams Crossing All Boundaries Expert Forum Shared Calendar Distance Learning Shared Rolodex OPG VPN Shared 24/7 Plot Virtual Library Virtual Budget Weekly Review

Google-India & World Brain • Four OPENS – Open source software – Open source information – Open spectrum – Open Hypertext Document System • We are close to both victory & salvation. • Centers in each region • Unite the seven tribes – Transnationally – Locally • Bottom-up people power • He who enters data rules, not he who hides or manipulates data • Openness is the antidote to secrecy & corruption.

Do No Evil & Counter Evil • • Taking money from US IC is very bad idea. Poor people are the wild cards. Foreign poor people are the best wild cards. Beltway bandits are evil and the alternative to a smart, moral, globally-responsible Google. • Need to create global multinational intelligence sharing network rather than augmenting national secret networks. • It’s time for Google to grow up, scale up, and rule in a United Nations/friend to all manner, NOT NOT as a secret ally of the U. S. Government. Cut the IC ties NOW.

Humble Suggestions for Google • Buy Silobreaker, Vivisimo, & the Institute of Scientific Information • Partner with Amazon, Fed. Ex-Kinkos • Explode World Bank and UN Relationships • Integrate CISCO AON and IPCIPS • Replicate or cooperate with Skype • Fund global man-machine foreign language translation and advanced analytics network • BE the Global Intelligence Network/World Brain

Spread the Word Robert David Steele Vivas CEO, OSS. Net, Inc. Coach, Global Intelligence Partnership (20 companies & rising) Bear@oss. net 703. 242. 1700 Will speak for sushi. Use Move. On. Org OSINT topic to organize everywhere in the world