Statistics for Public Policy Forum 6 November 2015

Statistics for Public Policy Forum 6 November 2015 1

The changing UK population Neil Park Neil. [email protected]. gov. uk 2

Structure 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The UK population in 2014 How did we get here? What will the population be like in the future? Some implications for policy Closing thoughts 3

Demographic challenges • Sustained and continuing population growth • Uneven population growth (geographical/age/ethnicity/over time) • The ageing population – increasing life expectancy combined with “baby boomers” leaving working age population • Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy • Migration leading to increased population diversity 4

The UK population in 2014 • Mid-year estimate was 64. 6 million • An increase of 0. 8% on 2013 and 2% on 2011, 9. 3% on 2001 • Population aged 15 and under = 18. 8% • Population aged 16 to 64 = 63. 5% • Population aged 65+ = 17. 6% • Dependency ratio (dependents/working age) = 614 per 1000 5

Population by age and sex: now and historical (UK) UK, 2014 2001 Population U 16 = 20. 0% Population aged 16 to 64 = 64. 0% Population aged 65+ = 15. 8% Dependency ratio (dependents/working age) = 623 per 1000 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 600 400 200 600 400 200 Females - 2001 0 Males - 2001 200 Males 400 Females 600 Thousands Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics 6

Population by age and sex: now and historical (UK) • Cohort comparison • Estimates for 2001 “aged on” to 2014. • Shows mortality for older ages. • Net international migration for working ages • Births/migration for those under 12 600 400 200 Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics 7

800 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Thousands 900 Thousands What’s been driving population growth? 100 0 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 -100 Births Deaths Natural change Source: Office for National Statistics Immigration Emigration Source: Office for National Statistics Net-migration 8

Natural change/migration interdependence • International migrants are often young adults • Young adults are fertile • Net inflows lead to an increase in births, net outflows a decrease (potentially). Thousands 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Uk born mother 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Non UK born mother 2013 2014 9

Ethnic composition of population by age, England Wales, 2011 % of age group 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to 85 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 and over White-British White-Non British Mixed/multiple ethnic group Black/African/Caribbean/Black British Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics Asian/Asian British Other ethnic group 10

Ethnic composition of population, England Wales, 2001 % of age group 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to 85 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 and over White-British Mixed/multiple ethnic group Black/African/Caribbean/Black British Source: 2001 Census, Office for National Statistics White-Non British Asian/Asian British Other ethnic group 11

Millions Distribution of ethnic groups across England Wales, 2011 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 North East North West Yorkshire and East Midlands The Humber West Midlands White: British Mixed/multiple ethnic groups Black/African/Caribbean/Black British Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics East London South East South West Wales White: Other (inc Irish) Asian/Asian British Other ethnic group 12

Population change at Local levels 50% % Population change 2001 -2014, local authorities in United Kingdom 40% North East North West Yorkshire and The Humber 30% East Midlands West Midlands East of England 20% London South East South West Wales 10% Scotland Northern Ireland United Kingdom 0% -10% Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics 13

How will the population change in the future? • Population projections • Take a base year (2014) • They are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and net migration derived from analysis of recent demographic trends. These assumptions are judged to be the best that could be made at the time they are adopted. • Alternative ‘variant’ projections also produced, high/low fertility, mortality, migration. 14

The population: now, in the past and in the future (UK) Millions 90 2039, 74. 3 m 80 70 2014, 64. 6 m 2001, 59. 1 m 60 1961, 52. 8 m 50 40 30 20 10 0 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 Variant range 1991 1996 2001 2006 Population estimates 2011 2016 2021 2026 Principle projection Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 2031 2036 2039 15

Understanding “uncertainty” in population projections Thousands 1, 200 1, 000 800 600 400 200 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Variant range, 2039 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Age 2014 Population estimate 70 75 80 85 90 95 Principle projection 2039 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 100 105 110 115 120 125 Zero net migration 16

Population by age and sex, now and projection for 2039 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 17

Projected population growth (%) for countries and regions of the UK 30% London 25% 20% 15% 10% North East 5% 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 23 20 24 20 25 20 26 20 27 20 28 20 29 20 30 20 31 20 32 20 33 20 34 20 35 20 36 20 37 0% Change between 2012 and English regions England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Source: Mid-year estimates and 2012 Sub-national Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 18

UK Population to grow: short term falls in some age groups Percentage difference from 2014 160 137% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 33% 4% 15% 9% 9% 9% 16% 18% 10% 7% 1% 0 -1% All 3&4 5 to 11 12 to 15 2020 -3% -6% -9% -20 6% 11% 16 to 17 18 to 21 Working age SPA 85+ 2039 Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing legislation. Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 19

The ageing population • Population aged 65+ projected to increase by 58% by 2039 • Population aged 85+ projected to increase by 137% by 2039 • Population aged 16 -64 to increase by 4. 8% • Dependency ratio is increasing. • Increases in state pension age to mitigate this • Encouraging older people to remain in work • Consider the effect of international migration 20

Dependency ratio: change over time under different scenarios Dependencyratio (dependents/working age*1000) 800 700 1982: 659 2039: 666 2014: 614 2001: 623 600 2028: 598 500 400 300 200 100 0 1982 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 High/low mig 65+ Estimates Principle (67+) Policy (67 by 2028) 2016 2021 Principle (65+) 2026 2031 2036 2039 Principle (66+) Principle (68+) 21 Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics

Life expectancy, increased in the past, projected to increase further Life expectancy at birth 100 90 80 2039, 84 m, 87 f 2014, 79 m, 83 f 70 1980 -2, 71 m, 77 f 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 -1982 1985 -1987 1990 -1992 1995 -1997 Males 2000 -2002 Females 2005 -2007 2010 -2012 Males (projected) 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 Females (projected) 22 Source: Office for National Statistics

Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (at birth), 2009 -11 HLE as proportion of LE (%) 23 Source: Office for National Statistics

Healthy life expectancy at a local level • Healthy life expectancy below SPA across most of the country for males, 2011 -2013 Age 80 70 Upper tier Local authorities in North East 60 North West 50 Yorkshire and The Humber East Midlands West Midlands 40 East London 30 South East South West 20 SPA (65) 10 24 0

Change in population, households and dwellings Thousands Annual change England, change over time, 2001 -2037 500 450 400 350 300 population 250 households 200 dwelling stock 150 100 0 2001 -02 2002 -03 2003 -04 2004 -05 2005 -06 2006 -07 2007 -08 2008 -09 2009 -10 2010 -11 2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14 2014 -15 2015 -16 2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20 2020 -21 2021 -22 2022 -23 2023 -24 2024 -25 2025 -26 2026 -27 2027 -28 2028 -29 2029 -30 2030 -31 2031 -32 2032 -33 2033 -34 2034 -35 2035 -36 2036 -37 50 Note: dashed lines are projections Source: Mid-year estimates and National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics; Household estimates and projections & Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government 25

Coherence between Population and dwelling stock change, 2001 -2014 Change in population (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Change 2001 -2008 Change 2009 -2014 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Change in dwellings (%) London 2009 -2014 Linear(Pop growth=Dwelling growth) Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics; Dwelling stock, Department for Communities and local government 26

Demographic challenges • Sustained and continuing population growth • Uneven population growth (geographical/age/ethnicity/over time) • The ageing population – increasing life expectancy combined with “baby boomers” leaving working age population • Life expectancy v healthy life expectancy • Migration leading to increased population diversity 27

Questions • Thank you 28

International migration: A closer look Paul Vickers Head of Population Outputs Office for National Statistics 6 November 2015 29

International migration time-series Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration and International Passenger Survey 30

International migration time-series 31

Who is immigrating to the UK? For every 100 immigrants to the UK. . . 14 are British citizens 20 are ‘EU 15’ citizens (e. g. France, Spain, Italy, Germany) 12 are ‘EU 8’ citizens(e. g. Poland) 9 are Romanian or Bulgarian 44 are citizens from outside the EU International Passenger Survey, provisional estimates year ending March 2015 32

Immigration by citizenship Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration 33

Main reason for immigration Per cent 100 90 80 70 60 Other 50 Accompany/Join 40 Formal study Work related 30 20 10 0 YE Jun 05 YE Mar 15 p Total Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration YE Jun 05 YE Mar 15 p Non -EU YE Jun 05 YE Mar 15 p EU 34

Political and public agenda • Reduce net migration to tens of thousands • Majority of EU citizens immigrate for work • Over half of non-EU citizens immigrate for study • Can only be controlled by restrictions for non-EU citizens • EU referendum • Depending on the outcome could allow more restrictions for migration 35

Impact of international migration 1 • Labour market • International students • Population growth e. g. : • Housing • Transport • Local areas are affected differently • Economic performance 36

Labour market: Definite job or looking for work by citizenship Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey 37

Labour market: Work-related immigration by previous occupation Professional & Managerial Per cent Manual & Clerical Other 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 EU Non-EU EU 2010 Source: ONS, International Passenger Survey Non-EU 2011 EU Non-EU 2012 EU Non-EU 2013 EU Non-EU 2014 38

Labour market: Skilled work visa applications by industry sector Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics 39

Labour market: Workers in different industry groups by nationality Thousands The nationality of workers in employment in the UK by industry sector, 2007 and 2014 2007 2014 UK Nationals EU 15 EU 8 & EU 2 Non-EU Agriculture 286 3 5 2 346 4 17 3 Energy & Water 451 6 5 14 497 7 14 19 Manufacturing 3, 276 58 103 105 2, 631 56 189 79 Construction Distribution, hotels & restaurants 2, 415 35 55 49 1, 999 32 112 50 4, 974 93 107 271 4, 976 145 270 266 Transport & communication 2, 525 49 39 128 2, 342 71 96 139 Banking & finance Public admin, education & health 3, 924 111 48 214 4, 553 171 128 217 7, 745 137 38 328 8, 439 202 109 329 Other services 1, 445 30 24 61 1, 583 44 45 70 27, 041 523 425 1, 171 27, 365 732 980 1, 172 Industry sector Total Source: Annual Population Survey 40

Labour market: Workers in different industry groups by nationality, 2014 Industry sector UK Nationals 1 Non-UK Nationals 2 Agriculture, foresty and fisihng 346 24 Mining and quarrying 127 16 2, 631 324 Electricity, gas, air cond supply 171 12 Water supply, sewerage, waste 198 13 Construction 1, 999 194 Wholesale, retail, repair of vehicles 3, 707 354 Transport & storage 1, 299 170 Accommodation and food services 1, 269 327 Information and communication 1, 043 136 Financial and insurance activities 1, 079 114 319 18 Prof, scientific, technical activities 1, 942 199 Admin and support services 1. 212 185 Public admin and defence 1, 782 70 Education 2, 971 207 Health and social work 3, 685 362 Arts, entertainment and recreation 745 60 Other service activities 751 70 Households as employers 54 19 Extraterritorial organisations 33 10 27, 365 2, 883 Manufacturing Real estate activities Source: Annual Population Survey Total 41

International students: Contribution to the UK economy • Latest HESA data shows 19% of students are non-UK nationals (non-EU 14% & EU 5%) • Flows of international students show: • 188, 000 people immigrated to the UK for study in YE March 2015 • Of these 72% were non-EU citizens 42

International students: Immigration for study by institution Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics 43

International students: UK Population, short term falls in some age groups Percentage difference from 2014 160 137% 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 33% 4% 15% 9% 9% 9% 16% 18% 10% 7% 1% 0 -1% All 3&4 5 to 11 12 to 15 2020 -3% -6% -9% -20 6% 11% 16 to 17 18 to 21 Working age SPA 85+ 2039 Note: These figures take into account the change in State Pension Age under existing legislation. Source: Mid-year estimates and 2014 National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics 44

Population growth: The effect of net migration, UK, 2039 45

Impact of international migration is regional 46

Economic performance: Impact on emigration Source: ONS, Long-Term International Migration 47

Impact of international migration 2 • Impact on services e. g. : • schools • health • benefits • Economic impact e. g. : • economic growth • tax receipts for public services • local and national 48

Challenges • Improving the evidence base to improve knowledge of impact: • Administrative data source • Migrant survey • Improve communication of latest statistics for policy makers 49

Discussion • Policy impacts of international migration • Understanding what policy makers questions are • Engaging with policy makers 50

Population statistics for the future Better Statistics, Better Decisions Sarah Crofts

Making better use of existing data The future of populatio n statistics Improvin g data to ‘fill the gaps’ Better statistics Better decisions

Where are we now? s ow ha H the UK on pulati po ? anged ch Fertility Analysis How is the population agein How do es migrati on affect t he popula tion of the UK ? ilies Fam y talit or M 53

What we want : Better decisions • Our strategy is to be more helpful to provide statistics and analysis to inform policy decisions • We meet regularly with analysts in government departments, but we could do more • There are gaps in understanding on the effects of population change on the economy, housing, demand for local services and social cohesion

Examples of policy area questions Elderly – hospital / care needs Childcare Housing Jobs and employment Older Workers Schools Jobs for young people / university / apprenticeships Economic impact of migrants and international students

What we want: Better statistics • More frequent, cheaper and improved statistics can provide better information for policy – means better decisions • Dependent upon Good understanding of requirements, including policy need Access to administrative data Developments in administrative data to ensure it is fit for statistical purposes

Example - the contribution of migration to the changing population Lighter shade is net migration component of population change • Currently based on the International Passenger Survey – provides good national level estimates, but there are gaps: Local level migration analysis difficult Based on intentions to migrate Illegal migration (non-EU not leaving when visas expire) • Administrative data can help to fill these gaps

Examples of administrative data to better understand migration • New HO exit check data – still under development • DWP and HMRC data can be used to identify economically active migrants. Can also identify economic benefits of migration. • Higher Education Statistics Agency data could provide more information on student migration • NHS data 58

How do we get there? • Ideally, data sources would be linked together • For example, New Zealand has launched its ‘Integrated Data Infrastructure’ (means bringing data sources together in one place) ‘Super File’

The journey • Getting access to data is not easy. Better access to data sources would mean more efficient, better statistics • Administrative systems not set up for statistical purposes, for example - Different definitions - Linking can be difficult - Timing issues

And when we are there? • Frequent, high quality data will be available to support decision making in key policy areas, such as housing, education, migration and health • People come to ONS first for data and analysis on population statistics • Existing data sources are improved for statistical purposes • New data sources would be set up with statistical benefits in mind

New outputs Better accessibility Making better use of existing data The future of populatio n statistics Improvin g data to ‘fill the gaps’ Better statistics More analysis Better decisions Understanding requirements Accessing new data Developing data sources

Questions for the forum What are the big questions that ONS population statistics will need to answer? Now? In the near future? In the Longer term?