Statistics for Policy Analysis Housing Statistics Network Seminar

Statistics for Policy Analysis Housing Statistics Network Seminar: Social Housing Statistics 27 th April 2012, Soho Theatre, London Connie P. Y. Tang and Christine Whitehead

We are asked to discuss • Existing social housing statistics • Recent policies on social housing • Changes in social housing statistics in response to policies • Policy analyses by CCHPR that have used social housing statistics • Localism and policy analyses of social housing

Annual Statistical Survey of Private Registered Providers of Social Housing • An annual snapshot of the social housing stock provide by private registered providers (mostly HAs) in England • Stock and rent data on general needs; sub-market rent (based on target rent); Supported housing; Housing for older people; low cost home ownership; and non-social housing • Data at individual HA, LA area, regional, and national levels • CCHPR has the time series data: 1989 to 2009/10 • TSA’s website (which is in the process moving to HCA) – Guides to Local Rents, starting from 2009/10: – Part 2: HA General Needs rents – Part 3: HA Supported Housing rents

COntinuous REcording (CORE) system • Now entirely under the DCLG • 2 separate CORE logs – CORE lettings: HA General needs CORE 1989/90–present, HA Supported CORE 1996/97–present, LA CORE 2004/05–present – Sales: New sales 1989/90–present • Coverage: nearly 100% for HAs’ new lettings, not for LAs (13 LAs not providing data at all while others only partial data) • Important source of information about household characteristics, economic status, ethnicity, primary reason for housing, source of referral and previous tenure of occupant in HA and LA new (new let) and existing (relet) units – and exactly what they get and where

Other data sources of social housing • Census: 1991, 2001 and 2011 (coming in this summer) – A snapshot in the Census year on the no. of households; types of dwellings; and what type of households living in social housing • English Housing Survey (previously Survey of English Housing) – Tenure change between Census years; number of households, household types; rents and incomes; and housing conditions of the social housing stock • Family Resources Survey/Household Below Average Income – Living conditions of social tenants; affordability, % of social tenants living below average income before and after housing costs – Potential for equivalent income analysis

Changes in housing tenure, England, 1993/94– 2009/10 Notes: Buying with mortgage included shared ownership; Other included employer provided housing, living with friend/relative and squatting. Sources: Survey of English Housing 1993/94– 2007/08 and English Housing Survey 2008/09– 2009/10. • Buying with a mortgage was the largest sector but declined from 43% to 35% over the 17 year period; outright ownership moved upwards from 25% to 34% • Council renting moved from being the 3 rd most important tenure to one of the least important; private renting doubled from 7% to 12%

A different picture in London, 1993/94– 2009/10 Notes: Buying with mortgage included shared ownership; Other included employer provided housing, living with friend/relative and squatting. Sources: Survey of English Housing 1993/94– 2007/08 and English Housing Survey 2008/09– 2009/10. • A steady decline in buying with mortgage after 2002; own outright has slowly risen, but as less important as elsewhere in England • Council housing is much more important in London than in England • Private renting in London has been rising more rapidly than in England, growing particularly strongly from 2000

Recent policies on social housing • Affordable Rents Regime: – a new social rents regime in which new lettings will be made available at rent levels up to 80% of gross market rents – tenancies must be for a minimum period of 2 years • Welfare Reform Act 2012 – Housing benefit caps: £ 500+ per week for a family and £ 350 per week for a single person with no children from April 2013 – Bedroom ‘penalty’: reduces the amount of benefit that people can get if they are deemed to have a spare bedroom in their council or housing association home – first policy directly affects rental stream – Local Housing Allowance (LHA) constrained to 30% of local area rent and caps on larger units

Statistics on Affordable Rents • Stock, rents and service charge for existing tenancies: – Data gathered from Annual Statistical Survey of Private Registered Providers of Social Housing, starting from 2012/13 – New build (with or without grant input) and conversions from existing social rented homes – General needs, supported housing or housing for older people – Affordable rent lettings – Number of sales of affordable rent properties to tenants and others • For new tenancies: – CORE Affordable Rent log: starting from 2011/12 – Household characteristics, stock, rents and service charge in new lets

Market-pegged rents in the social sector http: //www. cchpr. landecon. cam. ac. uk/outputs/detail. asp? Output. ID=257 • CCHPR’s research on Affordable Rent sponsored by Affinity Sutton – 5 LA case studies in southern England – Data from the Family Resources Survey and the Labour Force Survey • Using rent-to-income ratio and residual income to estimate the number of households who cannot afford local market rents but who might find an 80% affordable rent possible, with or without the assistance of Housing Benefit • Main finding: the 80% affordable rents can bridge affordability gap for working poor, but £ 26 k benefit cap leaves larger families facing shortfalls

Housing benefit changes and their effects on the private rented sector http: //www. cchpr. landecon. cam. ac. uk/outputs/detail. asp? Output. ID=240 • CCHPR’s research to look at short- and longer-term influences in changes of LHAs on the supply and allocation of private rented housing to poorer households in London, sponsored by Shelter • Data sources: no. of households from Census and LHA rates from the Valuation Office Agency • Main finding: low-income private tenants are increasingly likely to living in specific parts of the outer and peripheral areas of London where property remains affordable to them – but important distinction between low rents and proportion of tenants on housing benefit in an area

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Under-occupation and the Housing Benefit Reforms http: //www. cchpr. landecon. cam. ac. uk/outputs/detail. asp? Output. ID=271 • CCHPR’s research on bedroom penalty sponsored by the Housing Futures Network – 4 LA case studies (Wirral, Sunderland, Lewisham and Chorley) – Issues about rent collection; tenants attitudes to moving; capacity of the HA to provide accommodation; possible strategies • Data sources: RSR for general housing needs by bedsize, CORE for new lettings by bedsize and household types • Main finding: A substantial mismatch between the availability of one-bedroom homes and the number of households requiring them

Growth of 2 -bed flats in HA new built homes Housing association 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 % of flats % of 1 bedroom % of 2 bedrooms % of 3 bedrooms % of 4 or more bedrooms 56 39 41 18 2 46 34 40 23 3 35 25 45 28 2 31 21 45 30 4 29 20 45 31 4 32 21 44 32 3 29 19 42 33 6 29 18 44 33 5 29 20 44 32 4 37 19 46 30 5 36 17 49 28 6 39 17 45 29 9 46 14 54 25 7 53 18 52 24 6 58 19 56 21 4 66 24 56 17 3 66 18 60 18 4 63 17 61 18 4 60 18 54 22 6 50 14 54 26 6 Source: DCLG Live Table 254.

General needs stock and new lettings Sources: RSR and HA CORE general needs 1989/90– 2010/11. • Declining trend of HA turnover from 15% in 1993/94 to 8% in 2005/06– 2010/11

Who got what? HA allocations http: //www. homesandcommunities. co. uk/new-affordable-homes • New build is increasingly going to existing tenants, both via LA nominations and HA own lettings – Higher proportion of families with children (57% in 2010/11) in new build, in particular single parents (31%) • Also fewer homeless go to new build compared to relets • Regional differences reflect housing stress – In the 3 northern regions, LAs used nomination rights for 55% of new lets but only 24% of relets (2007/08) – In the 4 southern regions, LAs used far more nomination rights: 75% of new lets and 44% of relets (Note: 84% of all lettings to statutory homeless came from LA nominations)

Localism and social housing • Social housing tenure: the grant of flexible tenancy, i. e. , a secure tenancy with fixed term of at least 2 years • Social housing allocation: LAs have the freedom to determine who should qualify to go on their housing waiting list which allows LAs to set waiting list policies that are appropriate to their local area • Homelessness: LAs are allowed to offer accommodation in the private rented sector to house homeless households without requiring the household’s agreement. The minimum term of the private sector tenancy is 12 months. • Homeswap: requires landlords to participate in web-based mutual exchange services that enable tenants to see a wide range of properties across providers in England • Use of S 106 and Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) in relation to the provision of social and affordable housing

Localism Act and changes in regulation/powers • Social housing regulation: ‘consumer’ regulation of landlords – social tenants will receive stronger tools to hold landlords to account and there will be a greater role for locally elected representatives in resolving problems in their area • ‘Consumer regulation’: Replacement of the Regulatory Statistical Return (RSR) to the much simple Annual Statistical Survey of Private Registered Providers of Social Housing – Starting from 2012/13 – Part one: administrative question about the HAs – Part two: statistical questions about social housing owned/managed by HAs – Part three: a shorten version of Part two for HAs with fewer than 1, 000 homes – Part four: specific information about Affordable Rent Housing • Fixed term tenancy and flexibility in allocation of social housing: Addition of fixed term tenancy and ‘reasonable preferable’ groups in the 2012/13 CORE

Future policy analyses on impact of localism on social housing – data requirements to support agenda • Planning for housing and affordable housing under the National Planning Policy Framework • Need for evidence base on demands and needs but perhaps less detailed than in the past • Inter-authority planning requirements • Neighbourhood planning and its potential impact on the provision and location of affordable housing • Relationship of local government finance to housing policies – incentives to provide • Data on New Homes Bonus; CIL and S 106 and the use of funding • Need more micro data and need more holistic data – not just housing but links to employment, growth, etc.

Conclusions • Recent changes in social housing policy and the localism agenda provide new opportunities and challenges on policy analyses • Research will shift more from the big picture (national/regional) to different scales of local areas (LA, neighbourhood, or even at post code level) • Data requirements and adjustments have been made to adapt the new agenda, but data at micro-level are not adequate, e. g. household incomes, private rents, owner occupation costs, etc. • Requires use of individual data built up to different scales • Micro-data analyses: problems of secure access to personal details; knowledge of available local housing surveys, consistency in survey questions

Connie P. Y. Tang and Christine Whitehead Department of Land Economy pyt 20@cam. ac. uk; C. M. E. Whitehead@lse. ac. uk