State Library of Victoria Public Libraries Seminar The

State Library of Victoria Public Libraries Seminar The Big Shift – business implications of demographic & cultural change for Melbourne Bernard Salt Author The Big Shift Partner KPMG Australia 13 June 2003 kpmg

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The push from the bush • • Suburban culture emerged during the 20 th Century Provincial coastal culture now ascendant Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002 kpmg

“We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have some fun” 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 18. 21. Gold Coast 14, 754 Casey 10, 073 Brisbane South West 7, 267 Melton 5, 934 Brisbane North West 5, 521 Wyndham 5, 463 Blacktown 5, 310 Pine Rivers 5, 136 Baulkham Hills 4, 527 Brisbane South East 4, 501 Melbourne 3, 283 South Sydney 2, 824 kpmg

Why population shifts are important to business 10, 000 extra residents support job growth, eg: • 3, 700 new suburban households, or • 6, 700 new inner-city households • $70 million in new retail spending* • $25 million in new supermarket spending* • ½ a Kmart • One cinema screen • 7, 500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete *includes GST Population loss reverse these markets kpmg

Growth hotspots in Melbourne Outside top 10 • Hume (4, 367) • Greater Geelong (3, 686) • Brimbank (3, 371) • Mornington Peninsula (3, 368) • Melbourne (3, 283) • Whittlesea (2, 766) Seachange impact on Bellarine & Mornington Peninsulas kpmg

Segment hotspots across Melbourne • Boomers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn • Xers to Casey, Melton East & Craigieburn • Lone persons to CBD, Port Melbourne & Knox North • Never married men (25 -34) to Whittlesea South, Yarra Ranges South West & Keilor • Never married women (25 -34) to St Kilda, Richmond & Knox North kpmg

Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach Palmerston Port Douglas Cairns Broome Townsville Whitsunday Yeppoon Leonora Hervey Bay Noosa Caloundra Gold Coast Geraldton Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie Port Stephens Busselton Nowra-Bomaderry Narooma Augusta. Margaret River Denmark Winners Losers Victor Harbour Macedon Ranges Sorell kpmg

Coffs Harbour Eurobodalla (Narooma) Mildura Ballina Livingstone (Yeppoon) Shepparton Great Lakes (Forster) Brisbane Nowra-Bomaderry Townsville Mt Barker Mount Gambier Dubbo Hobart Nambucca Heads Lithgow (Greater) Armidale Johnstone (Innisfail) Burdekin (Ayr) Maryborough Griffith Tamworth Darwin Adelaide Albany Launceston Wagga Rockhampton Orange Wollongong Taree (Greater) Kempsey Singleton Byron Bay Sydney Bathurst Canberra-Queanbeyan Newcastle Geelong Cairns Ballarat Perth Gladstone Albury-Wodonga Bega Valley Bundaberg Bendigo Melbourne Warrnambool Bunbury Mackay Wingecarribee (Bowral-Moss Vale) Toowoomba -2. 0% Sunshine Gold Coast Hervey Bay Port Macquarie -1. 0% Mandurah 1. 0% -3. 0% The real action outside Melbourne is focussed on lifestyle towns: Echuca, Torquay, Daylesford, Mansfield and the coast within a 90 minute drive of the CBD kpmg Mount Isa Broken Hill Whyalla Grafton Alice Springs Geraldton Kalgoorlie-Boulder Goulburn Lismore Latrobe Valley Burnie-Devonport 0. 0% Busselton Victorian cities are no longer the losers they once were 6. 0% 5. 0% 4. 0% 3. 0% 2. 0%

Detroit Pittsburgh Philadelphia Baltimore St Louis LA Phoenix Dallas Houston Fort Lauderdale Growing Phoenix Los Angeles Houston Fort Lauderdale Dallas +950 +1, 467 +582 +368 +366 Declining Baltimore Philadelphia Pittsburgh Detroit St Louis -85 -68 -55 -50 -48 kpmg

Inter-city commuting on the rise … Australians pursue lifestyle options 2001 Change since 96 1. Sydney – Wollongong 18, 239 19% 2. Brisbane – Gold Coast 15, 195 23% 3. Sydney – Newcastle 11, 519 1% 4. Melbourne – Geelong 10, 146 18% 5. Perth – Mandurah 5, 656 18% 6. Brisbane – Sunshine Coast 4, 531 14% kpmg

Chic-house city living Sydney 6, 000 Melbourne 4, 834 Brisbane 4, 215 Perth 1, 516 Canberra 872 Adelaide 618 Darwin 225 Hobart 7 Total 18, 287 • Out with Neighbours … in with Friends, Seinfeld, Sex and the City, The Secret Life of Us • Out with the stubbie … in with elegant longneck boutique beer bottles with a designer label kpmg

Sydney and Melbourne lead the big shift downtown kpmg

20 -somethings lead the charge downtown 3, 500 Sydney 2, 810 more 25 -29 year olds in 2001 than 20 -24 year olds in 1996 3, 000 Population growth 2, 500 2, 000 1, 500 1, 000 500 0 0 -4 5 -9 10 -14 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 75 -79 80 -84 85+ -500 Age Group 3, 500 Melbourne 3, 013 more 20 -24 year olds in 2001 than 15 -19 year olds in 1996 3, 000 Population growth 2, 500 2, 000 1, 500 1, 000 500 0 0 -4 5 -9 10 -14 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 75 -79 80 -84 -500 Age Group 85+ kpmg

The ageing of the average Aussie bride Bridegrooms Xer brides 29 in 2001 Baby boomer brides were 21 in 1971 kpmg

Women want to work … and will make further gains by 2016 % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Professional working women demand their own drink eg Cosmopolitan 15 -19 20 -24 25 -34 35 -44 45 -54 55 -59 60 -64 1981 1998 2016 65+ kpmg

No real change to male participation rates % kpmg

Baby boomers just won’t die! 6, 000 5, 000 Population 4, 000 3, 000 2, 000 1, 000 0 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year kpmg

It doesn’t get any better after 43 -48 Total population by single year $40, 000 Boomer mid-point 40 30 $35, 000 $30, 000 350000 54 300000 25 ‘Rich’ live Pre-boomer’s longer slide Born 1931 $25, 000 250000 200000 $20, 000 70 150000 $15, 000 100000 $10, 000 50000 $5, 000 Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins 99 96 93 90 87 84 81 78 75 72 69 66 63 60 57 54 51 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 24 21 18 0 15 $0 kpmg

Average income by age 1986 39 44 Average income by age 2001 43 48 kpmg

Trendy to be fifty … in 2021 20 -something 50 -something 2002 2. 726 m 2. 385 m 2021 2. 975 m 3. 049 m kpmg

The Shakira conspiracy kpmg

Why the fixation with Baby Boomers? Born Label Age 2001 (m) 2021 (m) 1931 -1946 Preboomers 55 -69 2. 5 1. 6 1946 -1961 Boomers 40 -54 4. 1 3. 9 1961 -1976 Xers 25 -39 4. 4 4. 6 1976 -1991 Ys 10 -24 4. 1 4. 6 1991 -2006 Zs 0 -9 2. 6 4. 3 kpmg

… but the Swedes can’t surf! Australia Sweden kpmg

Implications for business • Financial later commitment to mortgages; savvy older consumers; succession planning; superannuation; blending work and life • Retail shopping centre locations; shopping hours and flexibility; CBD supermarkets & convenience stores; bulky goods from household formation • Consumer Goods - boomers want ‘lite’, fast, healthy foods eg noodles; fashion to accommodate larger sizes; longnecks replace stubbies; European & Asian food influences • Motor vehicles 4 WD giving over to 20 -something female cars, eg Honda Jazz, VW Polo • Pharmaceutical staying young, fit and vital; shift to wellness; nicotine patches kpmg

Dense Australians in 2001 Upper East Side Kings Squash • Zipcode 10128 has 59, 000 people per sqkm • Kings Cross has 18, 000 kpmg

Further information & contact • Population Growth database 2002 – March 2003 • The Big Shift 2 – mid-July 2003 • Links: www. thebigshift. com; www. kpmg. com. au • Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047; bsalt@kpmg. com. au • Bernard Salt’s column appears in The Australian every second Thursday (next 12 June 2003) • KPMG Firstbuy – pick-up on your way out kpmg