SS 474 Terrorism and Counterterrorism Lesson 8 AQ

SS 474: Terrorism and Counterterrorism Lesson 8: AQ Pre-9/11 • Wednesday 4 October: Film: Inside 9/11 (E hour: All sections meet in TH 348) • Friday 6 October: Book Review due • Tuesday 10 October: WPR – Comprehensive – Study lesson objectives, assigned readings, etc • DC Trip Finalists – see list COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon 23 October 1983 “We couldn’t stay there and run the risk of another suicide attack on the Marines. ” • 241 Dead • 105 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point -- Ronald Reagan, An American Life

New York, World Trade Center February 26, 1993 6 Dead, 1, 042 Injured Oklahoma City Murrah Federal Building, 19 April 1995 168 Dead, 490 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Aum Shinrikyo and the Sarin Gas Attacks Japan, 1994 & 1995 Matsumoto, Japan March, 1994 7 Dead, 34 Injured Tokyo, Japan Teito Rapid Transit Authority (Subway System) March 20, 1995 12 Dead, 5, 000 Injured Sarin gas kills by paralyzing muscles so that a person cannot breathe. Sarin enters the body by inhalation, ingestion, and through the eyes and skin. Symptoms begin with watery eyes, drooling, and excessive sweating, and then rapidly progress to difficulty in breathing, dimness of vision, nausea, vomiting, twitching, and headache. Ultimately the victim will become comatose and suffocate as a consequence of convulsive spasms. COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Khobar Towers - Dhahran, Saudi Arabia 25 June 1996 • 19 Dead • 240 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

American Embassy Bombings, Kenya and Tanzania August 1998 200 Americans, Kenyans, and Tanzanians dead Over 5, 000 injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

1999 LAX Attack Plan COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

The Strategy of Terrorism • Increasing interest in “soft targets” (economically strategic impact, and less protected) such as: – – – – – pubs in Northern Ireland & London UK open markets & cafes in Israel international airport, Sri Lanka bus in Manila, the Philippines shopping mall in southern Philippines nightclub in Bali, Indonesia banks in Istanbul, Turkey hotel in Jakarta, Indonesia nightclub in Berlin, Germany – and, of course. . . COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

New York City & Washington, DC September 11, 2001 2, 973 Dead, and 10, 000+ Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Modern Trends in Global Terrorism • More violent attacks (increasing lethality) • Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate smart bomb) COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Karachi, Pakistan May 8, 2002 Bus attack 14 Dead, including 11 French engineers COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point June 14, 2002 Attack on U. S. Consulate 12 Dead 50 Injured

Bali, Indonesia October 12, 2002 202 Dead 350 Injured Citizens from 21 countries, mostly Western tourists, were killed in the blasts COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Casablanca, Morocco May 17, 2003 44 Dead 107 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Jakarta, Indonesia August 5, 2003 12 Dead 60 Injured J. W. Marriott Hotel, Jakarta COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia November 8, 2003 3 simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on Al-Muhaya apartment complex April 21, 2004 Attack on Security Services Headquarters 4 Dead 148 Injured 17 Dead 122 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Istanbul, Turkey November 20, 2003 27 Dead 400 Injured Primary Targets: British consulate and the HSBC bank headquarters COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Madrid, Spain March 11, 2004 191 Dead 1, 035 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Jakarta, Indonesia September 9, 2004 9 Dead 173 Injured Australian Embassy was primary target COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

London, UK July 7, 2005 54 Dead 716 Injured COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

Why? What’s the history, strategy, etc. of the modern terrorism threat? COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

AQ Pre-9/11 • What is al Qaeda’s strategy? What are their strategic objectives? • 1996 fatwa – declaration of war, warned of presence of American and British “Crusader forces” • Saudi Arabia would become a beach head to impose a new imperialism on the region to obtain its oil – “It is no secret that warding off the American enemy is the top duty after faith and nothing should take priority over it” – All ulema are “unanimous that it is an individual duty to fight an invading enemy” COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

AQ Pre-9/11 • 1998 Fatwa – shift from the near enemy to the far enemy • Bin Laden’s critical contribution = re-directing energies of Jihadists toward attacking the U. S. anywhere • AQ and bin Laden do not want to be global leader of terrorists; rather, provide a spark, motivator, bring them under ideological umbrella COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

AQ Pre-9/11 Appreciating the Strategic Story: – Al Qaeda “proper" desires large attacks on US – Al Qaeda is focused on US economy – What about other groups & their objectives? – US interests abroad remain vulnerable – We are dealing with a strategic enemy – Perceptions matter – Long-view of the story is critical: “Connecting the dots” vs. “Knowing the story COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

ICE: AQ Timeline In Groups of 4: • Construct a timeline of key events leading up to 9/11 • Demonstrate how early terrorist groups or events have some relation to the events of 9/11 • Try to go as far back as 1968 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

7/7 London KSM is uncle of Yousef KSM Oplan Bojinka 1 st attack on U. S. soil? ? 2004 3/11 Madrid 1985 2001 9/11 2000 USS Cole 1998 bin Laden Fatwa 1995 Aum Shinrikyo (Tokyo) Embassy bombings 1996 bin Laden Fatwa Khobar Towers 1999 Millennium Plots LAX, Jordan Yousef Important conceptual shift from “near enemy” to “far enemy” 1994 Air France #8969 1993 WTC Bombing Landmark Plot Somalia paper tiger? Focused U. S. security policy towards non-state actors and WMD concerns Islamic Terrorism Timeline: A Strategic View 1986 1983 1968 Pan Am Beirut (Tel Aviv) Embassy & Marine Barracks lessons learned?

AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats • Three capabilities critical to 9/11 still exist – Ability to identify and exploit a key gap in opponents’ defenses – Effective and clever use of deception and denial – Suicide attacks employed to ensure operation’s success • Theoretically, a vast reservoir of trained recruits remains available for activation/mobilization – Tens of thousands jihadists trained in past decade – Means and methods of terrorism widely disseminated COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point

AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats • Method of attack – Depends on which “Al Qaeda” you are dealing with – Al Qaeda prefers coordinated attacks in waves – Well-planned with strong reconnaissance efforts Most likely means • High yield explosives • Vehicle delivery Most difficult • Unconventional weapons COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point Consequence • Detailed planning efforts • Rehearsals • Strong operational security WMD VBIED Probability

AQ Tomorrow: Global Threats Al Qaeda of today is not the Al Qaeda of yesterday – Robust organization – Now global social movement – Strong command control – Now loose direction – Operational freedom – Now focused on operational security – Dangerous organization – Now still extremely dangerous Questions? ? COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER at West Point