SPM Review Dmitrii Mironov dmitrii mironov dwd de 19

SPM Review Dmitrii Mironov (dmitrii. mironov@dwd. de) 19 th COSMO General Meeting, 11 -15 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Outline • Looking back on 2016 -2017 • Pressing problems and challenges • Outlook Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

New Consortium Member Welcomed IMS (Israel) joined COSMO consortium in September 2014 as an applicant member Official membership since 1 January 2017 (Declaration of Partnership signed by the heads of 8 national NWP centres) • IMS scientists are making important contributions to various COSMO activities • PP T 2(RC)2 (Harel Muscatel), TERRA Nova (Yiftach Ziv), PP CALMO, to mention a few Good Luck, Every Success, and Lots of Fun with(in) COSMO! Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

LETKF Goes Operational PP KENDA “Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation” (09. 2007 -09. 2015), PP KENDA-O (09. 2015 -08. 2020) • DWD: KENDA operation since March 2017 (performance OK) • ARPAE: KENDA operational since May 2017 (… OK) • MCH: KENDA operational since 2016 (analysis less close to observations than nudging, forecast scores not improved; reasons being investigated) • COMET: KENDA pre-operational (KENDA slightly worse than ‘old’ COMET system, work underway) Details in a few minutes (talk of Christoph Schraff) Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Development of NWP Test Suite A truly pressing problem… • Proposal prepared by Flora Gofa (with a little help of a few other colleagues) • Set-up of test runs (series of forecast, each being reinitialized anew over; one continuous hindcast run; series of forecasts, where the soil variable run freely and are not reinitialized) • Verification software (VERSUS, modified VERSUS, MEC + Feedback Files) • Proposal is considered by the STC • Discussion at parallel session (still no consensus on some issues) • Scientific aspects will be further discussed by the SMC • PT (or PP) proposal will be submitted (c/o F. Gofa, A. Montani, M. Milelli, R. Dumitrache, A. Iriza, U. Schättler) Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Fresh Wind is Blowing in WG 4 Pierre Eckert has been the co-ordinator of WG 4 “Interpretation and Applications” for many years (Pierre steps down in 2017). Great thanks, Pierre! Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Fresh Wind is Blowing in WG 4 (cont’d) • The scope of the WG 4 work has been shrinking over years, the group experienced a number of problems… • Based in the proposal (position paper) prepared by Pierre, the COSMO members decided to keep WG 4 and have delegated their representatives to form the new WG 4 team • A new coordinator is nominated by the STC, Anastasia Bundel. Congratulations, Anastasia! • Andrzej Mazur is a deputy Hit the road, the WG 4 revival team! Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

High-Resolution Challenge With the increasing spatial resolution we enter the “convectionpermitting” range of scales • Deep cumulus convection scheme is switched off (not a bad idea) • No general consensus about the treatment of shallow convection (though COSMO researchers have promising ideas!) • Sophisticated interplay of radiation, turbulence, microphysics (expensive solutions exist, but how to make things cheap? ) • The interaction of SGS and resolved scales is not well understood • Frankly speaking, we do not really understand what our models actually do We know that something is happening here But we don't know what it is Do you? Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Outlook Quite some effort will (likely) go into • development of dycores with improved conservation properties • more intimate coupling of turbulence, microphysics, radiation and soil (including ocean and lakes) parameterization schemes • model calibration • development and efficient use of spatial verification methods for ensemble and deterministic forecasts • representation of model uncertainties and development of perturbation methods for the ensemble prediction systems • performance on the massively parallel computer architectures • (not the least) software maintenance Given limited resources, priorities should be carefully set! Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Outlook (cont’d) As the SPM I would encourage the COSMO folks • To think more and perform deeper analyzes, not just run the model and produce nice plots. Thinking is not a waste of time, it often helps to make progress! • To strengthen co-operation between WGs (cf. a long WG 3 ab-WG 5 co-operation story, not really a success story so far). • To write and update the model documentation (oh, how many times did we talk about this? ). • To try out ICON. It is tasty! (Talks of Alexandr Kirsanov, Martin Köhler, and Michael Baldauf) We are on a good track, but there is still a lot to improve. Enjoy your work within COSMO and the COSMO spirit! Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

… Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

• The next ICCARUS (ICON-COSMO-CLM-ART User Seminar) will be held in Offenbach, Germany, 26 -28 February 2018; WG meetings 1 -2 March 2018 • The first announcement will be sent out soon • You are very welcome to participate in ICCARUS! Steering Committee Meeting | 11 -12 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

Thank you! 19 th COSMO General Meeting, 11 -15 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel

KENDA-O: Km-Scale Ens-Based DA for the use of High-Res Obs (Sept. 2015 – Aug. 2020) • Task 1: further development of LETKF scheme - KENDA with conventional obs only, work towards operationalization … - DWD: - ARPAE: KENDA operational since May 2017 (2. 2 km, 3 -hrly, 20 -mem. ), . . ok - COMET: KENDA slightly worse than ‘old’ COMET system, work ongoing ( analysis grid: thinned pressure levels vs. terrain-following) - MCH: KENDA operational since 21 March 2017, everything ok KENDA draws analysis much less close to obs than nudging forecasts score partly slightly worse being further investigated, discussed in WG 1 - source code management delayed (not yet in place, but started being set up: code developments list on web page, tech. test suite before end 2017, …) Status of KENDA-O / WG 1 September 2017 christoph. schraff@dwd. de 14

17. 2. STC/WG Sessions Reorganization The SPM proposal • The STC meeting that is held during the COSMO GM must take place after the plenary sessions; in this way, the STC members attend the WG co-ordinator and PP/PT leader talks and get the most recent information directly from the experts. Then, i. the STC meeting can be shortened, ii. the SPM should not collect the same information as reported during the plenaries prior to the STC meeting (if nothing else, this guides against errors), and iii. the SPM can attend parallel sessions on Monday, which is in fact a must for the SPM (recall, "S" stands for scientific). 19 th COSMO General Meeting | 11 -15 September 2017, Jerusalem, Israel