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SPACEFLIGHT The Next 50 Years Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO Author: Shadows SPACEFLIGHT The Next 50 Years Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO Author: Shadows of Medusa

The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. - Dennis Gabor (1971 The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. - Dennis Gabor (1971 Nobel Prize winner, Physics)

SPACEFLIGHT ? ? ? Why? Where? How? When? Who? SPACEFLIGHT ? ? ? Why? Where? How? When? Who?

WHY ? ? ? Many Reasons. . . WHY ? ? ? Many Reasons. . .

MINERAL MINING NASA MINERAL MINING NASA

LIVING SPACE, HABITATS SSI NASA LIVING SPACE, HABITATS SSI NASA

SSI SSI

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

THREAT MITIGATION THREAT MITIGATION

er th ns O so ea R Business profit Science Exploration Political Freedom Religious er th ns O so ea R Business profit Science Exploration Political Freedom Religious Freedom Entertainment Challenge/adventure Media US Postal Service Etc, etc. . .

WHERE ? ? ? Many Destinations. . . WHERE ? ? ? Many Destinations. . .

Brian's Top 30 Destinations Earth Moon Mars Ceres Main Belt Comets NEAs 8 orbits Brian's Top 30 Destinations Earth Moon Mars Ceres Main Belt Comets NEAs 8 orbits 15 La. Grange points

Destination: Earth Well, DUH! Destination: Earth Well, DUH!

Destination: Moon 3 day trip No atmosphere Low gravity (16%) Minerals: Some. . . Destination: Moon 3 day trip No atmosphere Low gravity (16%) Minerals: Some. . . ? Ouch! Energy: Rich!! (helium -3, solar power) CHONS: Very Poor

CHONS: Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, Nitrogen, Sulfur CHONS: Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, Nitrogen, Sulfur

Opportunity: Lunar Settlement Underground habs Expensive goods (suppliers will profit) Golden feces Spartan lifestyle Opportunity: Lunar Settlement Underground habs Expensive goods (suppliers will profit) Golden feces Spartan lifestyle Energy-intensive industry, mining

Opportunity: Mining Lunar Helium-3 Deposited by Sun 200 M tons -> 1 ton New Opportunity: Mining Lunar Helium-3 Deposited by Sun 200 M tons -> 1 ton New strip-mining techniques needed Energy-intensive Enough energy for 100 to 1000 years?

Opportunity: Sun-Towers Nanotech, painted collectors: 60% efficiency (2 x) Lunar solar power Beam energy Opportunity: Sun-Towers Nanotech, painted collectors: 60% efficiency (2 x) Lunar solar power Beam energy to Earth Long outages Tall – no atmosphere

Destination: Mars 4 to 9 month trip Thin CO 2 atmosphere Modest gravity (38%) Destination: Mars 4 to 9 month trip Thin CO 2 atmosphere Modest gravity (38%) Minerals: Rich? Energy: Some. . . CHONS: Very Rich!! NASA and the US Geological Survey

Opportunity: Martian Settlement Landmass == Earth Stunning terrain, vistas Surface habitats Cheap goods, food Opportunity: Martian Settlement Landmass == Earth Stunning terrain, vistas Surface habitats Cheap goods, food Earthly lifestyles Service economy NASA and the US Geological Survey

Opportunity: Martian In-Situ Resources Plastics Rocket fuel Plants, crops Bricks Thermal turbines Hydrogen economy Opportunity: Martian In-Situ Resources Plastics Rocket fuel Plants, crops Bricks Thermal turbines Hydrogen economy

Destination: Asteroids (Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs) Variable travel times (long) More than a Destination: Asteroids (Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs) Variable travel times (long) More than a million over one km in diameter Minerals: Very Rich!! Energy: Rich (helium-3) CHONS: Rich

* Assumes 5 billion people, and 1997 prices. Total is over $100 billion/person. ** * Assumes 5 billion people, and 1997 prices. Total is over $100 billion/person. ** Gold, silver, copper, manganese, titanium, rare-earth elements, uranium, etc Source: “Mining the Sky, ” Dr. John S. Lewis, 1997

Destination: 8 Orbits Earth, Moon, Mars Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs Sun Destination: 8 Orbits Earth, Moon, Mars Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs Sun

Types of Orbits Low (LEO) Geosynchronous (GEO) Elliptical Transfer Types of Orbits Low (LEO) Geosynchronous (GEO) Elliptical Transfer

Opportunity: Fuel Depots Low Earth Orbit is “halfway to anywhere”. . . but the Opportunity: Fuel Depots Low Earth Orbit is “halfway to anywhere”. . . but the other half still requires a lot of fuel !

Opportunity: Hotels Spin to provide artificial gravity Zero-G sports arenas in central hub Inflatable Opportunity: Hotels Spin to provide artificial gravity Zero-G sports arenas in central hub Inflatable rooms Centers of commerce Earth/Moon views!

Opportunity: Solar Power Satellites 5 x 10 km, 30, 000 tonne sats in geosynch Opportunity: Solar Power Satellites 5 x 10 km, 30, 000 tonne sats in geosynch orbit 5 billion ground-watts (need ~10 trillion watts) 98% of construction material could come from the Moon

Opportunity: Space Elevator Carbon nano-tubes 1% cost to LEO? 100, 000 km length Geosynchronous Opportunity: Space Elevator Carbon nano-tubes 1% cost to LEO? 100, 000 km length Geosynchronous

Destination: 15 La. Grange Points Earth-Sun Moon-Earth Mars-Sun Credit: Nasa L 4, L 5 Destination: 15 La. Grange Points Earth-Sun Moon-Earth Mars-Sun Credit: Nasa L 4, L 5 stable

HOW ? ? ? Many Enablers. . . HOW ? ? ? Many Enablers. . .

Reduced cost to LEO (rockets) Government investment Private investment Prizes Reduced cost to LEO (rockets) Government investment Private investment Prizes

Propulsion Costs: It's all about the rockets!!! (for now) Expendable (Delta, Atlas) Reusable (Space Propulsion Costs: It's all about the rockets!!! (for now) Expendable (Delta, Atlas) Reusable (Space Shuttle) Future: Space Elevator ? ? ?

Jurist, Dinkin, Livingston, “When Physics, Economics, and Reality Colide, ” 2005 (publication pending) Jurist, Dinkin, Livingston, “When Physics, Economics, and Reality Colide, ” 2005 (publication pending)

Opportunity: Cheap Access to LEO Cheap, throw-away rockets High launch rate, reliability (insurance) New Opportunity: Cheap Access to LEO Cheap, throw-away rockets High launch rate, reliability (insurance) New launch sites (range fees) Separate cargo from astronauts Many companies. . .

THE ROCKET EQUATION Going anywhere requires “Delta-V” Delta-V = ISP * ln( mfinal / THE ROCKET EQUATION Going anywhere requires “Delta-V” Delta-V = ISP * ln( mfinal / minitial ) Ways to cheat: use rocket stages or exotic fuels (both are expensive) High Delta-V mission = High Cost

STOP !! Braking usually requires “Delta-V” Most of your slim payload = fuel !!! STOP !! Braking usually requires “Delta-V” Most of your slim payload = fuel !!! One way to cheat: Aerobraking If your destination has an atmosphere, Delta-V and fuel for braking is NOT necessary Planets have atmospheres! Go there!

Government Investment Requires: Public, bi-partisan support spanning multiple administrations NASA's role: Science, technology development, Government Investment Requires: Public, bi-partisan support spanning multiple administrations NASA's role: Science, technology development, early missions, and insurance (if all else fails) Reasonable priority, funding 10 x private investment

NASA's Vision for Space Exploration (VSE): $8 billion/year average investment Moon landings in 2018. NASA's Vision for Space Exploration (VSE): $8 billion/year average investment Moon landings in 2018. . . then Mars (maybe) Crew Exploration Vehicle Heavy Lift Vehicle

Private Investment Requires: Short-term returns Low risk Elimination of the “giggle factor” Strong leadership Private Investment Requires: Short-term returns Low risk Elimination of the “giggle factor” Strong leadership

Returns (short, long) Transportation Home-building Entertainment/media Land-building Satellites Trading & mining Energy production Agriculture Returns (short, long) Transportation Home-building Entertainment/media Land-building Satellites Trading & mining Energy production Agriculture Energy distribution Goods and services Investment ANY Earthly business? !! Science

HOW: Prizes Future X-Prizes America's Challenge Centennial Challenges - $20 mil/year, 4 years Total HOW: Prizes Future X-Prizes America's Challenge Centennial Challenges - $20 mil/year, 4 years Total above: ~ $200 million

WHEN ? ? ? Many Wild Guesses. . . WHEN ? ? ? Many Wild Guesses. . .

Now! Military satellites Communications sats. ISS (governmental) Zero-G airplane rides Space funerals Planetary science Now! Military satellites Communications sats. ISS (governmental) Zero-G airplane rides Space funerals Planetary science

Next 5 Years Sub-orbital flights Early hotel prototype Lower cost rockets Private-ISS (cargo) Lunar Next 5 Years Sub-orbital flights Early hotel prototype Lower cost rockets Private-ISS (cargo) Lunar mapping Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Galactic CEO

Next 10 Years Space (LEO) tourism More hotel prototypes Lower cost, big rockets Private-ISS Next 10 Years Space (LEO) tourism More hotel prototypes Lower cost, big rockets Private-ISS (humans) Lunar site selection

Next 20 Years Lunar science outposts (USA, China, Russia) Lunar tourist flights First hotel Next 20 Years Lunar science outposts (USA, China, Russia) Lunar tourist flights First hotel in LEO Private space stations Mars site selection

NASA and the US Geological Survey Next 50 Years Lunar mining settlements (USA, China, NASA and the US Geological Survey Next 50 Years Lunar mining settlements (USA, China, Russia. . . ) First hotel on Moon Mars settlements (USA, China, Russia, Europe) Space Elevator? Planetary racing league?

Wildcards Mars settlement by 2015? NEA tractor, capture by 2030? L 4, L 5 Wildcards Mars settlement by 2015? NEA tractor, capture by 2030? L 4, L 5 settlements by 2055? Lunar-L 1 fuel depot and repair station by 2025? Credit: Dan Durda Mars elevator by 2055?

WHO ? ? ? Many Players. . . WHO ? ? ? Many Players. . .

Governments Public companies Private companies Wealthy individuals Consortiums Universities Non-profit organizations. . . Governments Public companies Private companies Wealthy individuals Consortiums Universities Non-profit organizations. . .

Governments Russia Canada Australia China India Israel USA Pakistan South Africa Japan Brazil Iran Governments Russia Canada Australia China India Israel USA Pakistan South Africa Japan Brazil Iran Europe Ukraine Korea

Public Companies: Lockheed Martin (LMT) – satellites, rockets Boeing (BA) – rockets, ISS operations Public Companies: Lockheed Martin (LMT) – satellites, rockets Boeing (BA) – rockets, ISS operations Space. Hab (SPAB) – cargo to LEO Orbital Sciences (ORB) – LEO cost, satellites Northrop Grumman (NOC) – military systems Alliant Tech (ATK) – solid rocket boosters Ball Aerospace (BLL) – science, satellites

Public Short-term Pick: Space. Dev (SPDV, www. spacedev. com) CEO: Jim Benson Engines for Public Short-term Pick: Space. Dev (SPDV, www. spacedev. com) CEO: Jim Benson Engines for SS 1 (founder of Compusearch) Rocket safety Small company, big contracts Focus: Small, cheap rocket components, orbital strategies Micro-sat's Bought Starsys Ambitions: Mining asteroids, low-cost Moon/Mars missions

Public Long-term Pick: Raytheon (RTN, www. raytheon. com) Large company Focus: Systems integration, supply Public Long-term Pick: Raytheon (RTN, www. raytheon. com) Large company Focus: Systems integration, supply logistics, remote sensing Lucrative military contracts Raytheon Polar Services experience So. . . when NASA builds their $50 billion base on the Moon, who will they pay to run it?

Private Companies: 4 Frontiers – Settlement technology research t. Space – Cheap human orbital Private Companies: 4 Frontiers – Settlement technology research t. Space – Cheap human orbital flight Zero-G Corp – Zero-G airplane rides IPX Entertainment – Zero-G sports, Paraball Celestis – space funerals X-Prize Cup - Rocket Racing League, prizes

Private Rocket Companies: XCOR Aerospace – EZ Rocket racer Scaled Composites – (Sub)Orbital rockets Private Rocket Companies: XCOR Aerospace – EZ Rocket racer Scaled Composites – (Sub)Orbital rockets Virgin Galactic – Sub-orbital tourism Blue Origin – Sub-orbital rockets Armadillo Aerospace – Sub-orbital rockets Starchaser Industries – Sub-orbital rockets da Vinci Project – Sub-orbital rockets

Opportunity: Space. Ports New Mexico: Las Cruces Spaceport $225 million investment Public funds + Opportunity: Space. Ports New Mexico: Las Cruces Spaceport $225 million investment Public funds + private (Branson) Florida Wisconsin (low range fees)

Private Short-term Pick: Space. X (www. spacex. com) CEO: Elon Musk (founder of Paypal) Private Short-term Pick: Space. X (www. spacex. com) CEO: Elon Musk (founder of Paypal) Focus: Cheap rocket access to LEO and beyond Falcon 1, 5, 9 for satellite market Low stress flight Factor of 10 reduction in cost Ultra-Heavy BFR for military and Moon/Mars

Private(? ) Long-term Pick: Bigelow Aerospace (www. bigelowaerospace. com) CEO: Robert Bigelow (owner of Private(? ) Long-term Pick: Bigelow Aerospace (www. bigelowaerospace. com) CEO: Robert Bigelow (owner of Budget Suites of America) Customer focus Tourism market Focus: Orbital hotels Sports market Serious research into inflatable habitats Moon/Mars hotels Hab spin-offs

Private Long-term Pick: Lift. Port Group (www. liftport. com) CEO: Michael Laine (founder of Private Long-term Pick: Lift. Port Group (www. liftport. com) CEO: Michael Laine (founder of Tek-Chek, Tek-Net) Focus: Robotic construction and nano -tech Carbon nano-tube production plant Space Elevator Major paradigm changer High risk Technical hurdles

Local Non-Profits: The Mars Society: www. marssociety. org The National Space Society (L 5): Local Non-Profits: The Mars Society: www. marssociety. org The National Space Society (L 5): www. angelfire. com/space/frl 5 Get Involved!!

Global Non-Profits: The Mars Foundation: www. marshome. org Red Colony: www. redcolony. org B Global Non-Profits: The Mars Foundation: www. marshome. org Red Colony: www. redcolony. org B 612 Foundation: www. b 612 foundation. org Space Studies Institute: www. spacestudiesinstitute. com The Space Frontier

The Future Is Now! The Future Is Now!