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SPACEFLIGHT The Next 50 Years Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO Author: Shadows of Medusa
The future cannot be predicted, but futures can be invented. - Dennis Gabor (1971 Nobel Prize winner, Physics)
SPACEFLIGHT ? ? ? Why? Where? How? When? Who?
WHY ? ? ? Many Reasons. . .
MINERAL MINING NASA
LIVING SPACE, HABITATS SSI NASA
er th ns O so ea R Business profit Science Exploration Political Freedom Religious Freedom Entertainment Challenge/adventure Media US Postal Service Etc, etc. . .
WHERE ? ? ? Many Destinations. . .
Brian's Top 30 Destinations Earth Moon Mars Ceres Main Belt Comets NEAs 8 orbits 15 La. Grange points
Destination: Earth Well, DUH!
Destination: Moon 3 day trip No atmosphere Low gravity (16%) Minerals: Some. . . ? Ouch! Energy: Rich!! (helium -3, solar power) CHONS: Very Poor
CHONS: Carbon, Hydrogen, Oxygen, Nitrogen, Sulfur
Opportunity: Lunar Settlement Underground habs Expensive goods (suppliers will profit) Golden feces Spartan lifestyle Energy-intensive industry, mining
Opportunity: Mining Lunar Helium-3 Deposited by Sun 200 M tons -> 1 ton New strip-mining techniques needed Energy-intensive Enough energy for 100 to 1000 years?
Opportunity: Sun-Towers Nanotech, painted collectors: 60% efficiency (2 x) Lunar solar power Beam energy to Earth Long outages Tall – no atmosphere
Destination: Mars 4 to 9 month trip Thin CO 2 atmosphere Modest gravity (38%) Minerals: Rich? Energy: Some. . . CHONS: Very Rich!! NASA and the US Geological Survey
Opportunity: Martian Settlement Landmass == Earth Stunning terrain, vistas Surface habitats Cheap goods, food Earthly lifestyles Service economy NASA and the US Geological Survey
Opportunity: Martian In-Situ Resources Plastics Rocket fuel Plants, crops Bricks Thermal turbines Hydrogen economy
Destination: Asteroids (Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs) Variable travel times (long) More than a million over one km in diameter Minerals: Very Rich!! Energy: Rich (helium-3) CHONS: Rich
* Assumes 5 billion people, and 1997 prices. Total is over $100 billion/person. ** Gold, silver, copper, manganese, titanium, rare-earth elements, uranium, etc Source: “Mining the Sky, ” Dr. John S. Lewis, 1997
Destination: 8 Orbits Earth, Moon, Mars Ceres, Main Belt, Comets, NEAs Sun
Types of Orbits Low (LEO) Geosynchronous (GEO) Elliptical Transfer
Opportunity: Fuel Depots Low Earth Orbit is “halfway to anywhere”. . . but the other half still requires a lot of fuel !
Opportunity: Hotels Spin to provide artificial gravity Zero-G sports arenas in central hub Inflatable rooms Centers of commerce Earth/Moon views!
Opportunity: Solar Power Satellites 5 x 10 km, 30, 000 tonne sats in geosynch orbit 5 billion ground-watts (need ~10 trillion watts) 98% of construction material could come from the Moon
Opportunity: Space Elevator Carbon nano-tubes 1% cost to LEO? 100, 000 km length Geosynchronous
Destination: 15 La. Grange Points Earth-Sun Moon-Earth Mars-Sun Credit: Nasa L 4, L 5 stable
HOW ? ? ? Many Enablers. . .
Reduced cost to LEO (rockets) Government investment Private investment Prizes
Propulsion Costs: It's all about the rockets!!! (for now) Expendable (Delta, Atlas) Reusable (Space Shuttle) Future: Space Elevator ? ? ?
Jurist, Dinkin, Livingston, “When Physics, Economics, and Reality Colide, ” 2005 (publication pending)
Opportunity: Cheap Access to LEO Cheap, throw-away rockets High launch rate, reliability (insurance) New launch sites (range fees) Separate cargo from astronauts Many companies. . .
THE ROCKET EQUATION Going anywhere requires “Delta-V” Delta-V = ISP * ln( mfinal / minitial ) Ways to cheat: use rocket stages or exotic fuels (both are expensive) High Delta-V mission = High Cost
STOP !! Braking usually requires “Delta-V” Most of your slim payload = fuel !!! One way to cheat: Aerobraking If your destination has an atmosphere, Delta-V and fuel for braking is NOT necessary Planets have atmospheres! Go there!
Government Investment Requires: Public, bi-partisan support spanning multiple administrations NASA's role: Science, technology development, early missions, and insurance (if all else fails) Reasonable priority, funding 10 x private investment
NASA's Vision for Space Exploration (VSE): $8 billion/year average investment Moon landings in 2018. . . then Mars (maybe) Crew Exploration Vehicle Heavy Lift Vehicle
Private Investment Requires: Short-term returns Low risk Elimination of the “giggle factor” Strong leadership
Returns (short, long) Transportation Home-building Entertainment/media Land-building Satellites Trading & mining Energy production Agriculture Energy distribution Goods and services Investment ANY Earthly business? !! Science
HOW: Prizes Future X-Prizes America's Challenge Centennial Challenges - $20 mil/year, 4 years Total above: ~ $200 million
WHEN ? ? ? Many Wild Guesses. . .
Now! Military satellites Communications sats. ISS (governmental) Zero-G airplane rides Space funerals Planetary science
Next 5 Years Sub-orbital flights Early hotel prototype Lower cost rockets Private-ISS (cargo) Lunar mapping Sir Richard Branson, Virgin Galactic CEO
Next 10 Years Space (LEO) tourism More hotel prototypes Lower cost, big rockets Private-ISS (humans) Lunar site selection
Next 20 Years Lunar science outposts (USA, China, Russia) Lunar tourist flights First hotel in LEO Private space stations Mars site selection
NASA and the US Geological Survey Next 50 Years Lunar mining settlements (USA, China, Russia. . . ) First hotel on Moon Mars settlements (USA, China, Russia, Europe) Space Elevator? Planetary racing league?
Wildcards Mars settlement by 2015? NEA tractor, capture by 2030? L 4, L 5 settlements by 2055? Lunar-L 1 fuel depot and repair station by 2025? Credit: Dan Durda Mars elevator by 2055?
WHO ? ? ? Many Players. . .
Governments Public companies Private companies Wealthy individuals Consortiums Universities Non-profit organizations. . .
Governments Russia Canada Australia China India Israel USA Pakistan South Africa Japan Brazil Iran Europe Ukraine Korea
Public Companies: Lockheed Martin (LMT) – satellites, rockets Boeing (BA) – rockets, ISS operations Space. Hab (SPAB) – cargo to LEO Orbital Sciences (ORB) – LEO cost, satellites Northrop Grumman (NOC) – military systems Alliant Tech (ATK) – solid rocket boosters Ball Aerospace (BLL) – science, satellites
Public Short-term Pick: Space. Dev (SPDV, www. spacedev. com) CEO: Jim Benson Engines for SS 1 (founder of Compusearch) Rocket safety Small company, big contracts Focus: Small, cheap rocket components, orbital strategies Micro-sat's Bought Starsys Ambitions: Mining asteroids, low-cost Moon/Mars missions
Public Long-term Pick: Raytheon (RTN, www. raytheon. com) Large company Focus: Systems integration, supply logistics, remote sensing Lucrative military contracts Raytheon Polar Services experience So. . . when NASA builds their $50 billion base on the Moon, who will they pay to run it?
Private Companies: 4 Frontiers – Settlement technology research t. Space – Cheap human orbital flight Zero-G Corp – Zero-G airplane rides IPX Entertainment – Zero-G sports, Paraball Celestis – space funerals X-Prize Cup - Rocket Racing League, prizes
Private Rocket Companies: XCOR Aerospace – EZ Rocket racer Scaled Composites – (Sub)Orbital rockets Virgin Galactic – Sub-orbital tourism Blue Origin – Sub-orbital rockets Armadillo Aerospace – Sub-orbital rockets Starchaser Industries – Sub-orbital rockets da Vinci Project – Sub-orbital rockets
Opportunity: Space. Ports New Mexico: Las Cruces Spaceport $225 million investment Public funds + private (Branson) Florida Wisconsin (low range fees)
Private Short-term Pick: Space. X (www. spacex. com) CEO: Elon Musk (founder of Paypal) Focus: Cheap rocket access to LEO and beyond Falcon 1, 5, 9 for satellite market Low stress flight Factor of 10 reduction in cost Ultra-Heavy BFR for military and Moon/Mars
Private(? ) Long-term Pick: Bigelow Aerospace (www. bigelowaerospace. com) CEO: Robert Bigelow (owner of Budget Suites of America) Customer focus Tourism market Focus: Orbital hotels Sports market Serious research into inflatable habitats Moon/Mars hotels Hab spin-offs
Private Long-term Pick: Lift. Port Group (www. liftport. com) CEO: Michael Laine (founder of Tek-Chek, Tek-Net) Focus: Robotic construction and nano -tech Carbon nano-tube production plant Space Elevator Major paradigm changer High risk Technical hurdles
Local Non-Profits: The Mars Society: www. marssociety. org The National Space Society (L 5): www. angelfire. com/space/frl 5 Get Involved!!
Global Non-Profits: The Mars Foundation: www. marshome. org Red Colony: www. redcolony. org B 612 Foundation: www. b 612 foundation. org Space Studies Institute: www. spacestudiesinstitute. com The Space Frontier
The Future Is Now!