Space Weather Services at Space Pole Matthew J

Space Weather Services at Space Pole Matthew J West On behalf of Space Pole STAC EUMETNET, Apr, 2013

Space Pole Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy Royal Observatory of Belgium Royal Meteorological Institute Space Pole has three research institutes and collaborates with other Belgian and European institutes to provide space weather products

Space Pole Space Weather Tools & Products Space Pole have several groups researching, reporting and developing tools to study the Sun and space weather. I will focus on the tools we have that may be of interest to you. These Include: PROBA 2 Science Center – Operates the PROBA 2 solar satellite. Interactive Flare Tool So. FAST - Automated Flare Detection Interactive Solar map AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring communications Through Space - European FP 7 project STAFF – Solar Timelines viewer (for AFFECTS). CME arrival alert (for Cactus – CME Tracking System Solar Weather Browser wave Monitor (for AFFECTS). CME Speed Calculator jhelioviewer Solar Demon – Dimming and EUV AFFECTS). Humain – Radio-astronomy station Regional SDO Data Archive USET – Ground based Solar Telescope International Sunspot Number – Record and Maintain K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre COMESEP – Forecasting Storms Space Weather Forecasting SAA Coordination Centre

PROBA 2 • • Microsatellite in sun-synchronous orbit Launched on November 2, 2009 725 km altitude ☀ Period: ≈100 min Commanding and data processing at P 2 SC (ROB, Brussels).

Instruments – LYRA - SWAP LYRA SWAP (Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System Detector and Image Processing)– An EUV imager Observes the Suns lower atmosphere (≈1 MK) LYRA (Lyman Alpha Radiometer) – X and UV photometer (4 passbands) Multi-wavelength analysis of flares Short time-scale events, especially quasi-period pulsations Variability of long term solar spectral irradiance

SWAP – showing the Suns Variability Solar Activity as observed by SWAP and LYRA 13 th Jun 2012, at 11: 29 UT, an M 1. 2 flare occurred in AR 11504 Source Region seen by SWAP Power recorded by LYRA

Tools Used With PROBA 2 (& Future Missions)

Interactive Flare Tool PROBA 2 data is used in our Interactive Flare Tool. A product produced to help forecasters locating the origin on Flares or other activity. The user clicks on the light curve and the source and details are highlighted.

Interactive Solar Map Provides flaring stats and probabilities per AR http: //sidc. oma. be/html /Solarmap. html

So. FAST: Automated Flare Detection Tool -Uses SWAP EUV imager (with a view to be used with future missions). -It will monitor, record and warn of EUV flares detected. (http: //www. sidc. be/sofast) Typical one day output

AFFECTS

AFFECTS • A space research project under the 7 th Framework Programme of the European Union. • AFFECTS will provide early space weather warnings to protect communication systems. • The following institutions are involved in AFFECTS: No. Country Institution Scientific Contact Dr. Volker Bothmer, project coordinator 1 Germany Georg-August-University Göttingen 2 Belgium Royal Observatory of Belgium Dr. Ronald Van der Linden, Dr. Cis Verbeeck 3 Ukraine Space Research Institute Dr. Aleksei Parnowski 4 Germany Fraunhofer IPM Dr. Raimund Brunner 5 Norway University of Tromsø Prof. Chris Hall 6 Germany German Aeropace Center Dr. Norbert Jakowski, Dr. Jens Berdermann 7 Germany Astrium Gmb. H Wilfried Pfeffer 8 U. S. A. Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA Dr. Rodney Viereck 9 Germany Planetarium Hamburg Thomas W. Kraupe

STAFF - Solar Timelines viewer

STAFF - Solar Timelines viewer http: //www. staff. oma. be/

Solar Demon - Dimming & EUV wave Monitor for SDO-AIA What? - Solar Demon is a tool to automatically detect and characterize EUV waves and dimmings Why? - Aid space weather applications by providing extra information on a front side CME, and gain better understanding of underlying physical mechanisms. How? - Automatically analyzing SDO/AIA 211Å quick-look images When? - Solar Demon will run in near real-time at the fall of 2013 (http: //solardemon. oma. be) October 23, 2012. Dimming mask created from base difference image

Solar Demon -example events Solar Demon interface Complex dimming event. 07/03/12. EUV Wave Characteristics. 09/03/12 Left: off-disc event detected on October 28, 2012. Center: event detected on March 9, 2012. Right: small event detected on October 23, 2012

Machine readable CME arrival alert CME heading towards Earth: E-mail containing XML file is sent Currently in test phase Provides input for AFFECTS Early Warning Message for GNSS users (http: //swaciwebdevelop. dlr. de/early-warning-gnss/) Contains: Measured: CME departure time, principle angle, coronagraph Estimated: CME arrival time, probability of arrival at Earth, max K value

Solar & Space Weather Tools

CACTus - Computer Aided CME Tracking CME Parameters Applicable to different coronagraphs Difference movies Halo Alert service http: //www. sidc. be/cactus Products

CACTus – CME catalogs • SOHO-LASCO: since 04/1997 • STEREO/COR 2 A and B: since 03/2007 • Real-time: based on LASCO Quick-look; – STEREO data has a latency of 3 days. http: //www. sidc. be/cactus

CME Speed Calculator

Solar Weather Browser http: //www. sidc. be/swb Software output Numerical information Observations Past – near real time Movies Zoom Combining Easy browsing

jhelioviewer • We develop the jhelioviewer program. – Visualization program for Solar image data. • Creates compressed solar images, allowing them to be quickly and easily viewed. • Used to create movies and combine (overlay solar images).

Instruments and Data We Host at Space Pole

USET Solar Telescope Uccle Solar Equatorial Table (USET) has three telescopes to look at the solar surface and lower atmosphere: • White-light • H-alpha • Ca II K-images Data is available via website: www. sidc. be/uset/ Data will be available via the SODA (SOTERIA VSO) Info: frederic. clette@oma. be

The International Sunspot Number (ISSN) USET in collaboration with other stations world wide helps produce: • Provisional SSN. • Definitive SSN. • Daily sunspot index. • SSN predictions. The Sunspot Number provides one of the longest running data series and is used for looking at long-term trends in solar activity.

International Sunspot Number Medium-term forecast of smoothed ISN Info: Ronald. Vanderlinden@oma. be

Humain Radioastronomy Station • Project started in 2008, in the framework of the Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence. • Provides near real-time monitoring of solar activity using Two kinds of instruments: • Radiospectrographs: observation of radio bursts linked to flares and CMEs • Radiometers: Single frequency flux monitoring for flares and daily irradiance variation (e. g. : F 10. 7 cm) • Provides radio data for the SIDC forecasts. • Website: http: //sidc. be/humain • Info: Christophe. marque@oma. be Type II burst

SDO data archive at ROB • Download images from ROB: use same routines but specify site=‘rob’ IDL> list=vso_search('1 -aug-2010 00: 00', '1 -aug-2010 00: 02', inst='hmi’, site=‘rob’) IDL> a=vso_get(list[6: 7]) • http: //wissdom. oma. be • latest movies: www. sidc. be • Info: verodelo@oma. be

Space Weather Forecasting & Nowcasting

K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Service Type: • Nowcast: update – every 60 min • Nowcast: latency less than 3 min Service Output: • K index value - data files (ASCII), plots • Quality Flag (QF) – data acquisition and processing quality assessment • Alerts – web (verbose & colour code), email Service Selection Alert (web based) K index value Registration Quality Flag http: //swans. meteo. be/geomagnetism 31

COMESEP Project The COMESEP Project: Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms and Solar Energetic Particle Events Input: Interchangeable Solar models. Output: Forecasts and alerts. ROB is in charge of WP 6: SPACE WEATHER ALERT SYSTEM • Establish an operational European Space Weather Alert system to forecast SEP radiation storms and magnetic storms. • Go beyond individual detection tools and models, by integrating their outputs into an automated start-to-end-service system. • Disseminate the alerts and forecasts to the space weather vulnerable industries and other users using existing media on European level. http: //www. comesep. eu/

The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) • COMESEP project (under development) • To develop an open end-toend (from Sun to Earth) space weather modelling system (“Virtual SW Modelling Centre”). • Combine ("couple") various space weather models in an integrated tool,

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) coordination Centre • We are part of the ESA SSA Program • Host expert service centers for ESA Solar Physics input from ROB Radiation input from BIRA • We host the SSA Coordination Centre

What do we forecast? • Flares: o Large and sudden release of energy in the solar atmosphere o Several classes of flares: C, M and X-flares o Estimate probability: <50% C, >50% M, >50% X-flares • K-index: o Overall geomagnetic activity o Forecast over 3 days in intervals of 3 hours o Ranges from 0 to 9 o Daily A-index value is distributed to the wider communitee • Proton events • F 10. 7: o Solar radio flux at 10. 7 cm o Forecast over 3 days

Daily Space Weather Bulletin Daily @12: 30 UT Email Fixed format – software readable Free and Complete information Products

Fast & automated alerts Flare Presto CME >M 5 Noticeable event >150 degrees Email Sms* Also for geomagnetism, all quiet, … www. sidc. be Products *since 2011

Monthly & weekly bulletins • • • Provisional Sunspot Indices. Medium-term forecast of sunspot index. Table of Solar and Geomagnetic activity indices. Table of noticeable events (> M flare). Forecasts of returning major sunspot groups. Solar and Geomagnetic Activity report: – a general description of the solar and geomagnetic conditions during the month. • If applicable: a “hot items” section. • STCE Newsletter.

Worldwide RWC Data Products http: //sidc. be/products

Space Pole Space Weather Tools & Products PROBA 2 Science Center – Operates the PROBA 2 solar satellite. Interactive Flare Tool So. FAST - Automated Flare Detection Interactive Solar map AFFECTS - Advanced Forecast For Ensuring communications Through Space - European FP 7 project STAFF – Solar Timelines viewer (for AFFECTS). CME arrival alert (for Cactus – CME Tracking System Solar Weather Browser wave Monitor (for AFFECTS). CME Speed Calculator jhelioviewer Solar Demon – Dimming and EUV AFFECTS). Humain – Radio-astronomy station Regional SDO Data Archive USET – Ground based Solar Telescope International Sunspot Number – Record and Maintain K-LOGIC - Local Geomagnetic Activity Nowcast Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre COMESEP – Forecasting Storms Space Weather Forecasting SAA Coordination Centre