South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority 12 th TRB Transportation Planning Application Conference, Houston TX, May 2009 Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Wolfgang Scherr, PTV Ian Fisher, Trans. Link www. translink. bc. ca www. ptvamerica. com
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Overview > Transit planning in Metro Vancouver and current capacity issues > Dynamic transit assignment – the method > Model development > Application in service planning and operations planning > Conclusions and future directions 2
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Metro Vancouver 21 cities 2. 2 million residents, 3. 2 million by 2040 > 294 million transit boardings (unlinked) in 2007 > 78 annual transit rides (linked) per resident Major gateway for sea, air and rail freight > No urban freeways/motorways > Prior to 1999 no regional transportation agency 3
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Trans. Link Mandate - Integration of: Public Transport Intelligent Transportation Systems Regional Cycling Transportation Demand Management Roads & Bridges Vehicle Emissions Testing 4
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Intermodal Transit Network > ALRT (Sky. Train) > Commuter rail (West Coast Express) > Passenger ferry (Sea. Bus) > Bus (includes trolleybus) > B-Line (frequent, limited stop) > Community shuttle (minibus) > BRT and LRT (planned) 5
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Rapid Transit Projects in the Region Not pictured: BRT projects 6
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Current Sky. Train Capacity Issues Picture: Broadway Station (Sky. Train), inbound boarding, AM peak. Sky. Train capacity: major subject for application of this model 7
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Overview of the Regional Transit Model (RTM) 24 -hour operations model (supply), average weekday 24 -hour passenger model (demand) > Dynamic assignment > Fixed OD matrices, 800 zones, interface to regional four-stage model Platform: VISUM Applications > Operations planning: routes and patterns, fleet requirements, schedule development > Operations analysis for new rapid transit corridors > Service planning: transit area plans, bus network planning > Visualizations and animations that are comprehensible to lay people History: > Phase A (2006): rail-only model > Phase B (2008): regional model of all modes 8
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment The Dynamic Assignment Method VISUM’s “Timetable-based assignment” > Schedule-based method (as opposed to headway-based) > Path-builder uses operations schedule data > The supply model based on individual vehicle runs > Assumption: deterministic flow of vehicles and trains according to schedule > Multiple paths and multiple connections are built using branch&bound > Naturally a time-dynamic method: > Travel conditions vary during the day > Availability of paths varies during the day > Travel time of paths varies during the day > Path choice: > Box-Cox transformed LOGIT > Impedance = IVT + OVT + NT + Delta(early, late) + {correction for similarity of connections} > Vancouver RTM: capacity constraints not included 9
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment time Schedule-Based Assignment - Schematic bus run 1 bus -onl bus run 2 y co 3 ctio intermo n dal con intermo run nne bus nection dal con nection -onl y co nne dal con origin transfer n 1 train ru n 2 train ru n 3 train ru n 4 ctio intermo train ru n nection train ru n 5 destination space 10
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment The 24 -Hour Dynamic Assignment 30 -minute time-dynamic passenger volumes 2011, colour-coded by v/c-ratio 11
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Model Development – Supply Side Integration of existing operations data Network topology > Nodes and links (NAVTEQ street network) > Stops, stations (resolution as in APC/AVL) Schedule > Data: lines/routes/patterns, run times, runs with departure and arrival times > Existing schedule: imported > Future schedule: edited Fleet model > Vehicle types, capacities, consists > Procedure for block building (vehicle rotations) 12
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Model Development – Demand Side Counts > Station boarding counts – good 24 -hour coverage for Sky. Train > Link loading counts: ferry, commuter rail, specific Sky. Train links > Automated Passenger Count System (APC) > > > All bus lines except community shuttles Mainly used: total route boardings in hourly increments over 24 -hours APC evaluation tool was still being calibrated itself during our model calibration OD matrices > Four segments : AM, Midday, PM, Evening > Existing demand: derived with matrix calibration and matrix crafting methods > Future demand: > > Link to regional four stage model Future OD demand = existing OD demand + delta forecast Departure time distributions > Derived from counts > Adjusted to meet real-world time distributions all over the region 13
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Model Development: Departure Time Distribution > Morning peak of demand: dependent on distance from centre > Afternoon peak: no significant difference observed between markets 14
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Calibration of Time-Dynamics: Model versus Counts Rail stations: centre versus sub-urban 15
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Calibration of Time-Dynamics: Model versus Counts Suburban bus lines (aggregated APC data for several routes) 16
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Applications (1): Operations Scenarios Sky. Train Study > Develop and analyze multiple scenarios to operate Sky. Train with existing fleet Result > The present operations are optimal with regard to capacity Analysis > Use of aggregated and time-disagregated performance measures 17
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Other Applications (2) Other Sky. Train Studies: > Future maximal capacity for the critical segment BW-WF > Fleet strategy: it is desirable to add 3 -car units to the fleet (now only 2 -car units) > Operations concepts for future extensions of the Sky. Train system (UBC Line, Evergreen Line) Bus service planning: > Bus network planning in the context of a new rail line > The Canada Line (ALRT) will open in 8/2009 > Bus realignments, bus schedules, bus fleet usage System Analysis: > 2011 short-term forecast: interaction of the existing Sky. Train Lines with the new Canada Line 18
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Conclusions (1) Transit supply varies over time > The use of dynamic tools seems natural in transit planning. A lesson learned > It is good to start with a sub-network and later expand to entire region > Early applications allow: > Planners to learn the tool, the data > Stakeholders to give feedback and formulate requirements for the final model Benefits of 24 -hour dynamic transit assignment: > Better understanding how demand builds up at congested spots > Analysis of peak and off-peak operations > Visualizations of time-dynamic supply and demand 19
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment One Benefit of Dynamic Assignment: Visualization DA can help to visualize and explain truths about congestion: > Congestion is of short duration - in a 24 -hour perspective > It is challenging to provide capacity as flexibly as demand varies > The demand peak has shifted and the rules of operations have to adjust 20
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Future Perspectives Next studies: > Contribute operations analysis to three major strategic studies: > Expo Line Upgrade study > UBC Line rapid transit study > Strategic Network Review > Analysis of BRT projects > Area transit plans Future model improvements: > Calibration of in-station transfer volumes (recent surveys) > Adding capacity constraints to the assignment model > Holding passengers in stations if departing train over capacity > Diverting passengers to alternative paths > Changing time of departure (peak spreading) > Research on time-of-day distribution of demand 21
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Acknowledgements Peter Klitz, Trans. Link Graeme Masterton, Trans. Link Cherry Xiong, PTV Kean Lew , PTV Anett Ehlert , PTV Fang Yuan , PTV Juergen Beyer , PTV 22
Regional Application of 24 -Hour Dynamic Transit Assignment Thank You For more information, please contact: Ian Fisher Trans. Link 604 -453 -3058 ian_fisher@translink. bc. ca www. translink. bc. ca Wolfgang Scherr PTV 302 -654 -4384 wscherr@ptvamerica. com www. ptvamerica. com 23
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