South Africa Election and Development Policy Karol Boudreaux Senior Research Fellow kboudrea@gmu. edu “Rwanda is our nightmare, South Africa is our dream”Wole Soyinka
Background n Brief History q Legacies of discrimination n n q Native Lands Act of 1913 Native Consolidation Act of 1945 Bantu Affairs Act of 1971 1990 -1992 negotiations to end apartheid 1994 – Present n n n Peaceful elections in 1994, 1999, 2004 Economic Growth between 3 -5 percent per annum Unique International Opportunities
Background Cont. n Importance of the Election q q Change in ANC political hegemony The Need for Reform n n Increase opportunities for all South Africans Frustration with misaligned foreign policy
A South African success story? Michael Jwambi
Poverty in South Africa n At a R 322 ($56) a month poverty line: q q n n 56% of Africans are poor 95% of poor are Africans Poverty rates for colored = 34% <10% for whites & Indians Women-headed households are poorer Rural households are poorer Source: Bhorat, H. & van der Westhuizen, C. 2008, “Economic growth, poverty and inequality in South Africa: the First Decade of Democracy, ” paper commissioned for the Fifteen Year Review.
Key Contenders n African National Congress (ANC) q n Congress of the People (COPE) q n Jacob Zuma Mvume Dandala Democratic Alliance (DA) q Hellen Ziller
ANC priority areas: n n n Education Crime Jobs Health Rural Development
Unemployment Comparison Source: Constructed by authors from Labor Force Survey data obtainable from www. statssa. gov. za and from US Bureau of Labor Statistics data obtainable from www. bls. labor. gov/data/
What explains high unemployment? n n n Legacies of apartheid Lots of supply Limited demand for low-skilled workers High search costs High formal sector wage rates Some labor regulation rigidity (firing)
Education n n n Shared responsibility Large work force 96% public, 4% independent Generally poor outcomes for learners Infrastructure backlogs significant Split department? “A South African boy gazes through a school fence in Cape Town. ” LA Times, March 24, 2009
Crime
Crime in South Africa n n Trending down? 50 murders/day each & every day Highest sexual violence rate outside war zone Costs to businesses/citizens: q q q Loss of property, work disruptions Spend to protect Limit hiring; limits self-employment
Running Nomzano Butchery n n Vicky & Tam Mangoliso run the butchery Vendors hesitant to drive in – buy from a middleman Customers don’t want to shop in the later evening hours Expenses related to crime prevention
Competition spurs violence n Anti-Foreigner Violence q Manifestation of underlying problems Jerome Delay / AP
Policy Recommendations n Creating Jobs q q n Encouraging Educational Entrepreneurship q q n Create special economic zones to encourage business development, job creation, and skills training Create a two-tiered minimum wage structure Encourage the entry of more private-sector educational entrepreneurs Modify teacher certification requirements Increasing Security for All South Africans q q Encourage crime reporting and community involvement Improve “customer satisfaction” levels with the police
South Africa and the World since 1994 n Unique International Opportunities q q q n Leading voice for democratic governance in Africa Sole African representative to International Forums Permanent seat on UN Security Council Influential trading partner Host to big sporting events But…
Confusing regional trading
Case Study n Zambia q Member of SADC and COMESA n n q SADC rules- dismantle all trade barriers COMESA rules- common external tariff Committed to free trade and maintaining trade barriers with South Africa
An inconsistent voice? n Good Governance? q United Nations SC votes n q False Dichotomy Failed Elections n Zimbabwe and Kenya UN Photo by Devra Berkowitz Joao Silva for The New York Times
Policy Recommendations n Expanding African Economic Integration q n Good Governance q q n Reduce the multiplicity of memberships and barriers to trade Adopt a principled approach to foreign policy Work towards a more robust strategy for monitoring elections Focus on Public and Cultural Diplomacy q q Expand educational, cultural, and professional exchanges throughout the continent Expand civil society initiatives
Expanding opportunity SA Finance Minister, Trevor Manuel, on 3. 18. 09: "We must diversify. But that is up to the entrepreneurs. Unfortunately governments are bad at producing entrepreneurs. ” http: //www. moneyweb. co. za/mw/view/mw/en/page 1408 ? oid=281500&sn=Detail
Questions and Answers Please visit: http: //mercatus. org/enterpriseafrica/ to read the Mercatus Policy Series South Africa Country Brief
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