Скачать презентацию Solving the Climate Challenge Prof Daniel Cohan Rice Скачать презентацию Solving the Climate Challenge Prof Daniel Cohan Rice

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Solving the Climate Challenge Prof. Daniel Cohan, Rice University January 12, 2018 Solving the Climate Challenge Prof. Daniel Cohan, Rice University January 12, 2018

Earth is Warming 1°C warming from 20 th century average. Warming 0. 17°C per Earth is Warming 1°C warming from 20 th century average. Warming 0. 17°C per decade. Create your own time trends or spatial plots of temperature anomalies: https: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/cag/time-series/global 2

We can see Earth warming • Carbon Visuals global CO 2 video • Carbon We can see Earth warming • Carbon Visuals global CO 2 video • Carbon budget, CO 2 concentration, and temperature animation • Arctic sea ice animation

We (via greenhouse gases) are causing it Radiative forcing since 1750 IPCC 2013 Also, We (via greenhouse gases) are causing it Radiative forcing since 1750 IPCC 2013 Also, see Bloomberg: What’s really warming the world

Warming is a problem Warming is a problem

Warming may intensify hurricanes and floods • • Harvey-scale rain 6 x as likely Warming may intensify hurricanes and floods • • Harvey-scale rain 6 x as likely (Emanuel, 2017) More severe but not more frequent hurricanes Precipitation increases ~7% per 1°C More extremes of rain and drought • Change in jet stream? – Rice HERE study

Risk = Hazard * Exposure * Vulnerability What we control via emissions Hazard Impacts Risk = Hazard * Exposure * Vulnerability What we control via emissions Hazard Impacts What we control via adaptation and preparedness Article in The Conversation by Dessler, Cohan, and Hayhoe connecting this to Hurricane Harvey 7

What is the “climate challenge” we must solve to reduce the hazard? • Analogy What is the “climate challenge” we must solve to reduce the hazard? • Analogy to setting goals for diet and weight

How do we set goals for weight? Target Outcomes Actions and Offsets Targets by How do we set goals for weight? Target Outcomes Actions and Offsets Targets by Component Target Measurement Target: Overall Consumption

How do we set goals for climate? Target Outcomes Actions and Offsets Target Measurement How do we set goals for climate? Target Outcomes Actions and Offsets Target Measurement Targets: Emissions by Component Target: Emissions Overall

What goal to target? • Temperature goal – Pro: Tangible, can rally around it What goal to target? • Temperature goal – Pro: Tangible, can rally around it – Con: Uncertain how to reach it • Emissions goal – Pro: Can design control strategies – Con: Uncertain outcomes • PBS video: Why 2°C is the magic number

Goal of Paris Climate Agreement • “Global temperature rise this century well below 2°C Goal of Paris Climate Agreement • “Global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1. 5°C”

Uncertainty in emissions limit to achieve T goal If our aim is 2°C, our Uncertainty in emissions limit to achieve T goal If our aim is 2°C, our remaining budget varies widely with models (bracket shows budget for 50% of models) IPCC 2013 13

Emissions pathways likely to achieve the Paris goal Emissions pathways likely to achieve the Paris goal

1. 5 - 2°C means leaving most fossils in the ground 15 1. 5 - 2°C means leaving most fossils in the ground 15

Paris Climate Pledges: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Paris Climate Pledges: Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

Paris 2020’s pledges are insufficient ore ef s ari P B With Paris 2°C Paris 2020’s pledges are insufficient ore ef s ari P B With Paris 2°C 1. 5°C 17

U. S. Paris emissions pledge: 26 -28% by 2025; 80% by 2050 base United U. S. Paris emissions pledge: 26 -28% by 2025; 80% by 2050 base United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Pathway to U. S. Paris pledge: 80% net emission reduction by 2050 United States Pathway to U. S. Paris pledge: 80% net emission reduction by 2050 United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

3 Steps to Decarbonize Energy Efficiency Decarboniz e Electricity Electrify as much as possible 3 Steps to Decarbonize Energy Efficiency Decarboniz e Electricity Electrify as much as possible

1. Efficiency United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016) 1. Efficiency United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Opportunities for Efficiency Rocky Mountain Institute, Reinventing Fire Opportunities for Efficiency Rocky Mountain Institute, Reinventing Fire

2. Decarbonize Electricity United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016) 2. Decarbonize Electricity United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

How to decarbonize electricity: >30 GW/yr new wind + solar; nuclear; CCUS United States How to decarbonize electricity: >30 GW/yr new wind + solar; nuclear; CCUS United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Most additions are wind & solar, and most retirements fossil, but turnover slow *Assumes Most additions are wind & solar, and most retirements fossil, but turnover slow *Assumes Clean Power Plan, and solar & wind prices 2 x recent actual prices 25

Wind and solar cheaper than fossils, even before subsidies, externalities 26 Lazard, Levelized Cost Wind and solar cheaper than fossils, even before subsidies, externalities 26 Lazard, Levelized Cost of Energy, 2017

The “Duck Curve” challenge: Energy demand net of solar (CA spring) Solar Feb 9, The “Duck Curve” challenge: Energy demand net of solar (CA spring) Solar Feb 9, 2017 CAISO memo CAISO

With growing solar & abundant hydro, CAISO prices negative some days 2016 CAISO With growing solar & abundant hydro, CAISO prices negative some days 2016 CAISO

Solution 1: “Fatten the duck” by reducing baseload NREL Solution 1: “Fatten the duck” by reducing baseload NREL

Solution 2: “Flatten the duck” by shifting demand (storage? EVs? ) NREL Solution 2: “Flatten the duck” by shifting demand (storage? EVs? ) NREL

Solution 3: Link the ducks Clean Line Energy Solution 3: Link the ducks Clean Line Energy

High-voltage transmission needed for 20% wind US DOE, 20% Wind Energy by 2030 (executive High-voltage transmission needed for 20% wind US DOE, 20% Wind Energy by 2030 (executive summary) 32

Texas CREZ reduced curtailments 33 EIA Texas CREZ reduced curtailments 33 EIA

Wind and solar are complementary Slusarewicz and Cohan, manuscript in preparation Wind and solar are complementary Slusarewicz and Cohan, manuscript in preparation

3 a. Electrification United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016) 3 a. Electrification United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Opportunities for electrification U. S. Mid-century Deep Decarbonization Strategy Opportunities for electrification U. S. Mid-century Deep Decarbonization Strategy

EV batteries are following learning curves similar to solar EV batteries are following learning curves similar to solar

UBS expects EVs to reach total cost of ownership parity in 2020’s 38 UBS expects EVs to reach total cost of ownership parity in 2020’s 38

Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg New Energy Finance

3 b. Low-carbon fuels United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 3 b. Low-carbon fuels United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Low carbon fuels in California 41 Low carbon fuels in California 41

4. Land Sink enhancement United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 4. Land Sink enhancement United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Land sink opportunities U. S. Mid-century Deep Decarbonization Strategy Land sink opportunities U. S. Mid-century Deep Decarbonization Strategy

Jim Blackburn, Texas Coastal Exchange concept 44 Jim Blackburn, Texas Coastal Exchange concept 44

5. CO 2 Removal Technologies United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, 5. CO 2 Removal Technologies United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage National Academies, 2015 Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage National Academies, 2015

6. Non-CO 2 Reductions United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 6. Non-CO 2 Reductions United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Most important climate treaty before Paris: Montreal Protocol for ozone Kigali Accord 2016 for Most important climate treaty before Paris: Montreal Protocol for ozone Kigali Accord 2016 for HFCs 48

U. S. Sources of CH 4 and N 2 O Methane (9% of US U. S. Sources of CH 4 and N 2 O Methane (9% of US ghg emissions) N 2 O (5% of US ghg emissions) 49 US EPA, Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks, 1990 -2011

Limits of focusing on non-CO 2 ghgs Rogelj et al. , PNAS, 2014 50 Limits of focusing on non-CO 2 ghgs Rogelj et al. , PNAS, 2014 50

What policies do we need to drive these changes? United States Mid-Century Strategy for What policies do we need to drive these changes? United States Mid-Century Strategy for Deep Decarbonization (White House, Nov. 2016)

Waxman-Markey not enacted, but its caps are being met Emissions (Million Metric Tons CO Waxman-Markey not enacted, but its caps are being met Emissions (Million Metric Tons CO 2, equiv) • Obama & Mc. Cain campaigned for cap-and-trade, 2008 • Waxman-Markey passed House in 2009; no vote in Senate Actual emissions lower than Waxman-Markey cap 52

Clean Power Plan not implemented, but being achieved Actual, ~1800 in 2017 EIA 2016 Clean Power Plan not implemented, but being achieved Actual, ~1800 in 2017 EIA 2016 EPA projected impact of Clean Power Plan 53

Fuel economy standards tightening, but Trump may seek to weaken 54 Fuel economy standards tightening, but Trump may seek to weaken 54

Federal tax credits for wind and solar are phasing down 55 Federal tax credits for wind and solar are phasing down 55

State and city pledges 56 State and city pledges 56

State-level Renewable Portfolio Standards www. dsireusa. org / February 2017 ME: 40% x 2017 State-level Renewable Portfolio Standards www. dsireusa. org / February 2017 ME: 40% x 2017 WA: 15% x 2020* ND: 10% x 2015 MT: 15% x 2015 OR: 50%x 2040* NH: 24. 8 x 2025 MN: 26. 5% x 2025 (IOUs) MA: 15% x 2020(new resources) 6. 03% x 2016 (existing resources) 31. 5% x 2020 (Xcel) (large utilities) SD: 10% x 2015 WI: 10% 2015 IA: 105 MW NV: 25% x 2025* CA: 50% x 2030 VT: 75% x 2032 UT: 20% x CO: 30% by 2020 2025*† (IOUs) *† KS: 20% x 2020 AZ: 15% x NM: 20%x 2020 (IOUs) 2025* NY: 50% x 2030 MI: 15% x 2021*† IN: OH: 12. 5% IL: 25% 10% x x 2026 2025† MO: 15% x 2021 RI: 38. 5% x 2035 CT: 27% x 2020 NJ: 20. 38% RE x 2020 + 4. 1% solar by 2027 PA: 18% x 2021† VA: 15% x 2025† DC NC: 12. 5% x 2021 (IOUs) OK: 15% x 2015 DE: 25% x 2026* MD: 25% x 2020 DC: 50% x 2032 SC: 2% 2021 TX: 5, 880 MW x 2015* 29 States + Washington U. S. Territories HI: 100% x 2045 Renewable portfolio goal * † Guam: 25% x 2035 PR: 20% x 2035 Renewable portfolio standard NMI: 20% x 2016 USVI: 30% x 2025 Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes non-renewable alternative resources DC + 3 territories have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (8 states and 1 territories have renewable portfolio goals)

http: //portal. beyond-ratings. com/2016/04/carbon-pricing-world-map/ Carbon pricing policies 58 http: //portal. beyond-ratings. com/2016/04/carbon-pricing-world-map/ Carbon pricing policies 58

City actions: Building codes, transit, fleets, smart growth, etc. 59 NREL City actions: Building codes, transit, fleets, smart growth, etc. 59 NREL

Electric fleet vehicles for City of Houston can reduce life cycle emissions Sengupta and Electric fleet vehicles for City of Houston can reduce life cycle emissions Sengupta and Cohan, 2017

Corporate and voluntary efforts 61 Corporate and voluntary efforts 61

Co-benefits of addressing climate change Co-benefits of addressing climate change

Water per MWh Water Use Reductions Fthenakis and Kim, 2010 Water per MWh Water Use Reductions Fthenakis and Kim, 2010

Air quality improvements 64 Air quality improvements 64

Ozone from coal power plants Average MDA 8 Ozone Impact (ppb) 65 Ozone from coal power plants Average MDA 8 Ozone Impact (ppb) 65

PM 2. 5 from coal power plants Average DA 24 PM 2. 5 Impact PM 2. 5 from coal power plants Average DA 24 PM 2. 5 Impact (µg/m 3) 66

Climate and health externalities of coal-fired generation in Texas 67 Climate and health externalities of coal-fired generation in Texas 67

Conclusions • Global treaties have focused on T targets, but national efforts on emissions Conclusions • Global treaties have focused on T targets, but national efforts on emissions • U. S. emissions are declining, but: – Not driven by federal policies – Not fast enough for climate goals • Need linked efforts for efficiency, decarbonized grid, and electrification • Substantial co-benefits for air and health 68