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SOFI Czech Republic: Tentative outcomes Millennium Project, Central European Node Department of Development Studies Faculty of Science Palacky University Olomouc 17. listopadu 12, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic Pavel Nováček Petr Kladivo Jan Macháček Jiří Teichmann
Aims: n Calculation of simple regional SOFI (14 regions in the Czech Republic) n Calculation of complex baseline SOFI as well as partial SOFIs for the Czech Republic (demography, social, economy, environmental) n Analysis of regional differences - period 2001 - 2010 n Classification of regions according to selected criteria
Methods: n Calculation of „simple“ SOFI (2001 -2010), all variables have equal weight (1)všechny proměnné mají stejnou váhu, SOFI calculated also for each of 14 regions within Czech Republic, Real Time Delphi will be done later (probably autumn 2012) Variables:
First results: n thematic SOFI CR 2001 -2010
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI) n Why are the poor and the rich are rich? n The answer might lie somewhere else other than in the known theories of development. n There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation: a) dependence theory, b) the influence of geographical and environmental factors c) culturological approach
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI) n Maybe every development theory has some truth in itself, but what we need is to create some inventive synthesis. n Perhaps future-oriented thinking it the principal key to prosperity and success. n If future oriented thinking is important factor to prosperity and success, then we need instrument how to measure it – the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI).
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI) n Max Weber pointed to the Protestant ethic and its influence on the development of capitalism in Europe and North America. n The postponement of current consumption, savings, investment, hard work, all with the vision of God´s salvation after this life; that is a typical example of future-oriented thinking which determines our current behavior and actions. n Therefore it is desirable to formulate a Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI), which would complement such indexes as GDP, HDI, SOFI and others.
Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI) n FOTI is by methodological approach close to the SOFI developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project. n But FOTI should focus more on identyfying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, less on „state of the future“ (measuring whether situation will improve or deteriorate). n Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to calculate FOTI.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators n Education 1. Public expenditures on higher education Percentage of households connected to internet Research expenditures 2. 3.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators n Health 1. Public expenditures for health prevention Consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs Percentage of overweight people in society 2. 3.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators n Economy 1. Income distribution – GINI Index Households savings Values of external debt Values of inherent debt Total debt service Internal debt of country expresssed as degree of neglected infrastructure (roads, buildings, …) Official development assistance (ODA) expenditures 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators n Environment 1. Expenditures to renewable energy resources and into energy savings Expenditures of households to buy ecological food Recycling (% of recycled paper, alluminium etc. ) Ratio of total number of cars and bicycles in country CO 2 emissions Percentage of nationally protected areas 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators n Other 1. People voting in elections Percentage of religious people actively practicing their religion Ratio of households expenditures for food and for culture Number of accepted patents in one year 2. 3. 4.
FOTI – tentative proposal of indicators n Additional indicators were proposed by two MP members as first feedback: 1. Per capita cell phone Per capita number of servers Price of high speed connection Doctors per 100 000 people Scientists per capita Futures courses per capita Think tanks per capita Percent government budget for long-range planning Subscriptions per capita to futurists magazines Number of hits on Google in search of the country and the term „future country x“ Websites with the name future in it per capita 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
FOTI – next steps n Next step should be to select final list of indicators. n All data should be publicly accessible sources. n The overall index then should be calculated for individual countries as an arithmetical average of all selected variables (individual indicators)
Polish Subnode n Translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary into Polish n Spreading the word: Distribution of the Polish translation of SOF 2011 Executive Summary among Polish entrepreneurs, government officials and scientists n Introducing SOFI methodology to the Polish Club of Rome and Polish Academy of Sciences n Cooperation with Economic University of Cracow in the area of futures studies and technology foresight n Cooperation with University of Warsaw – the first ever Polish course in humanities through futures studies will be taught starting October 2012
Polish Subnode n Launching www. ptsp. pl – a futurology and foresight oriented Web portal created in a cooperation with the Polish Futures Studies Society. It is quickly rising in popularity in Poland becoming an important reference for Polish internet users. Its development is threefold: 1. News section, presenting current, punctual information Weekly topics – reviews, comments, reports A growing volume of general futures´resources, translated by authors´courtesy from original languages 2. 3.
Slovak Subnode n International Colloquium Designing the Future in Europe 2011 (October, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society n Conference Global Existencial Risks 2011 (30. November – 1. December 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Society for Environment n International Conference 40 Years of Limits to Growth (March 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Association for the Club of Rome n Seminar: Gunter Pauli – Blue Economy (May 2012, Bratislava) – Slovak Association for the Club of Rome n Seminar: Conscious Evolution and Creative Design of Syntropic Economic Theory (March 2012, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society n Seminar: From Limits to Growth to Blue Economy – Forty Years of Publishing Reports to the Club of Rome (June 2012, Prague) – Civic Futurological Society
Slovak Subnode – scheduled activities n Conference Global Existencial Risks 2012 (November, Bratislava) – Slovak Society for Environment n International Colloquium Designing Future in Europe 2013 (Prague) – Civic Futurological Society n International Conference Global Problems, Local Solutions 2013 (Bratislava) – Slovak Association for the Club of Rome
Thank you for your attention Pavel Nováček Central European Node pavel. [email protected] cz