SHOUT Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology NOAA s

SHOUT Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology: NOAA's multi-year plan to deploy the NASA Global Hawk aircraft for high impact weather Michael L. Black Gary A. Wick Robbie E. Hood NOAA UAS Program

SHOUT Objectives Overall Goal • Demonstrate and test prototype UAS concept of operations that could be used to mitigate the risk of diminished high impact weather forecasts and warnings in the case of polar-orbiting satellite observing gaps Objective 1 • Conduct data impact studies • Observing System Experiments (OSE) using data from UAS field missions • Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated UAS data Objective 2 • Evaluate cost and operational benefit through detailed analysis of life -cycle operational costs and constraints 2

SHOUT Proposed Mission Plans • – – – 2014 – Collaboration with NASA HS 3 August 26 to September 29, NASA Wallops Up to 15 total flights NOAA input to mission design • 2015 – NOAA led Missions – September – November, NASA Armstrong – Tropical cyclones (ATL, EPAC)and high impact weather targets (Pacific, Alaska) – Single deployment location adds flexibility for potential targets- Atlantic, EPAC, Pacific, Arctic – Possibility for 2 GH aircraft to be explored – 10 -16 potential flights • 2016 – NOAA led Mission – September – November, NASA Armstrong – NASA EV-2 programs would lead to NASA collaborations and parnership with NOAA 3

PROPOSED SHOUT HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER MISSIONS • • Early period: Tropical cyclones Forecast improvements for track and intensity Option for both Atlantic and Pacific Basins Atlantic tradeoff of deployment costs vs station time • Later period: High-impact storms affecting the continental US and Alaska weather: • Coastal flooding • Atmospheric rivers • Forecast improvement for threats such as extreme precipitation and damaging winds • Targeted lead times of 3 -7 days • Potential contribution to satellite calibration/validation 5

HS 3 2014 • 5 th week in place on NASA schedule • Agreements drafted with both NASA Goddard and Armstrong • NOAA adding: Up to 5 flights 240 dropsondes Mission science support and guidance Real-time data transmission/assimilation planned • Targeting methodology for missions possible • • 4

SHOUT ADAPTIVE OPERATIONAL STRATEGY • Tropical cyclones –SUNY group proposed to explore methodology (R. Torn, J. Dunion, Grad. Student) –Collaborations with AOML and ESRL NOAA Labs. • High-impact weather events – Zoltan Toth (ESRL) proposed to explore methodologies –Identification of high- impact weather threat cases –Fully automated Ensemble Transform sensitivity algorithm to identify sensitive areas –Produce “optimized” flight track to sample sensitive region for selected threat 6

PROPOSED NADINE FLT TRACK

ACTUAL NADINE FLT TRACK 10

Typical AV-6 Flight Pattern <-To WFF FP IP - ~ 600 nmi-

<-To WFF FP Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Pattern with approaching trough to the west Extra Drops IP - ~ 600 nmi-

Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Pattern with building ridge to the NE <-To WFF IP FP Extra Drops - ~ 600 nmi-

<-To WFF Possible Modified AV-6 Flight Pattern with SAL East of Center FP IP Extra Drops - ~ 600 nmi-

Does a butterfly pattern (2 crossings) at the beginning of the pattern yield more symmetric coverage?

Does a butterfly pattern (multiple long leg crossings) yield more symmetric coverage and still provide adequate environmental sampling?

CONSIDERATIONS FOR NOAA-MODIFIED MISSIONS: • HS 3 objectives and goals come first- especially with AV-1 • NOAA objectives are complimentary to those of NASA • Modifications proposed only when there is adequate time on station for changes • Try to minimize alterations to the NASA proposed flight tracks • We would like to fly with NOAA IFEX missions (P 3 s and G-IV) when possible • Some coordinated portion of flight legs with NOAA P 3 s and/or the G-IV is beneficial to compare radars • NOAA slightly more interested with AV-6 flights (AVAPS) but would like to evaluate and, possibly, modify a couple of AV-1 flights, especially if NOAA is flying • Cooperation and coordination will yield success for both agencies 8

To the new, brilliant italian GH scientist: • WE ARE COUNTING ON YOU TO PROVIDE GOOD HDVIS AND NIGHT TIME GH IMAGERY!!! : ) “Sì, posso e”(YES, far AN DO) IC 8