6253e9e7886f0370800fdc9676d97b64.ppt

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Shipinvest 4004 The leading ship finance software www. shipstrategy. com Norwegian Maritime Solutions John Colletts alle 117 0870 Oslo, Norway Tel: + 47 22 95 08 70 e-mail: erikst@online. no Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 1

Shipinvest 4004 is a unique tool for analysis and appraisal of ship and rig investments Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 2

Shipinvest 4004 comprises of three modules INVESTMENT ANALYZER CORPORATE CONSOLIDATION HISTORICAL ANALYSIS Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 FAST PROJECT Equivalent to ”back-of-an-envelope” calculation. Produces a calculation in 30 seconds STANDARD PROJECT Allows a tailormade input with a whole range of options: several loans, equity payments and dividends, type of loan, loan details etc Calculating numbers for a range of vessel investments. This will show consolidated figures for cashflow, loan payments and other. To be used for corporate consolidation or ”individual consolidation” for e. g. KS investors having various % equity in the ships User can specify his own timeseries for various ship types: TC rate, oper cost, NB cost, S/H values, scrap prices etc in order to calculate how good or bad certain investments have been on a historical basis. Also useful to compare statistical expectation of return in various segments 3

What is Shipinvest 4004 ? • • • Shipinvest 4004 is a program for investment analysis of shipping projects. Asset management functions include: – When to buy – When to sell – How to finance Shipinvest 4004 will quickly calculate key figures such as: – Annual cash flow projects – Break even tc rates – Required sales prices at end of a cp period – Internal rate of return – NPV – Sensitivity Additionally Shipinvest 4004 includes two modules that handle: – Corporate Consolidation • Allow the user to consolidate single ship investment projects to explore consolidation effects – Historical analysis • Users can add their own time series for different ship types where one can analyze the historical return on investments. This feature is useful to dtusy statistical expectations and variances in the sectors. Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 4

Fast Project – all input on one screen – Results in 30 seconds ! Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 5

Annual cashflow Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 6

Monthly cashflow – if you need it Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 7

Required TC rates to yield 12 % (*) IRREQ (*) If 12 % is what the user has specified as target return Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 8

Internal Rate of Return as a function of Residual value IRR – Three numbers: IRR on TOTAL capital: Is the rate of return for the investment calculated as if the entire ship is purchased on a cash basis (i. e. no financing) IRR on EQUITY The rate of return based on the equity put into the project. This will often show the effect of gearing up the project. IRR on EQUITY modified This assumes that cash generated by the project is NOT taken out of the project but that proceeds are kept in a bankaccount where it earns the interest rate that is specified input. This method is a lot more ”sober” than the standard IRREQ. Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 9

Value of vessel = Discounted value of operating results + expected residual value Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 10

Banker’s report: Bank net exposure in vessel Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 11

Pro forma Balance sheet and P&L statements Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 12

Visual presentation: Annual operating result Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 13

Visual presentation: Required sales price Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 14

Break even tc rates versus forecasted rates Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 15

Visual presentation: NPV Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 16

Visual presentation: Major Cost Items Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 17

Visual presentation: Required TC rates for the 10 years period Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 18

Visual presentation: Return on Capital employed Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 19

Historical analysis: IRR for a Panmax BC Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 20

Historical analysis: NPV for a panmax BC Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 21

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Historical analysis: 10 years old in % of NB price for a panmax BC Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 23

Historical analysis: Payback period for a panmax BC Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 24

Historical analysis: 12 months tc rate Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 25

Historical analysis: Database for sales Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 26

Corporate consolidation: Individual ship investments to be consolidated Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 27

Corporate consolidation: Graphical results Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 28

Corporate consolidation: Annual cashflows Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 29

Corporate consolidation: Break down on the individual investments Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 30

Investment case: Buying a supramax ‘Free Lady’ • • Major importance – Size: 50, 000 dwt – Built: 1993 (I. e. vessel is 18 years old) – Date of purchase: October 2011 – Lifetime: Assume 25 years (i. e. 7 years remaining life) – Purchase price: Between 22 and 23 mill USD – Scrap value estimate: 5 mill USD (at the end of 7 years operation) – Finance: 70 % / 7 years repayment / 5 % interest rate – Operating costs: 5, 000 USD/day (including allocation for drydocking – Increase in operating costs: 3 % p. a. Minor importance: – Operating days p. a. : 350 days – Interest rate on cashflow: 3 % p. a. – Nr of installments/interests terms p. a. : 2 (i. e. every 6 months) Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 31

Investment case: Buying a supramax ‘Free Lady’ Key questions to answer: – Major issues to address: • Is this a ‘good’ investment ? – What is a ‘good investment’ ? – What tc rate do I need to get my required internal rate of return. Assume I need IRR on equity of 12 % p. a. – Can I obtain the required tc rate in today’s market ? – If I cannot get the required tc rate today, can I hope for an increase in the value after 2, 3 or 4 years, and in such case what price do I need to recover my investment – Minor issues • Do I run into periods with negative cash, and if so, how can I cover such deficits (additional lending ? ) • Do I get a positive NPV ? • How sensitive are some of my assumptions ? Norwegian Maritime Solutions presents Shipinvest 4004 32