Shifting Alliances in the Middle East A commentary

Shifting Alliances in the Middle East A commentary Great Decisions, Foreign Policy Discussion Group, March 2016

Topics to discuss • • 1. ) Regime Security in the Middle east 2. ) Balance of Power in the Region 3. ) Sunni-Shia differences 4. ) U. S. – Iran relationship 5. ) Impact of the Arab Spring 6. ) Israeli-Palestinian issue 7. ) Syrian Civil War 8. ) ISIS

The challenge of history • History, ” wrote the British historian C. V. Wedgwood, “is lived forwards but it is written in retrospect. We know the end before we consider the beginning and we can never wholly recapture what it was to know the beginning only. ”

General observations • 1. ) Middle East has been a central arena of great power competition for more than a century • 2. ) Retreat of American power from the region is a contributing cause to the current disorder in the region • 3. ) Population redistribution, migrations, and ethnic cleansing may create a new state system in the region

Ottoman Empire in decline

WORLD WAR I: 1914 -1918 Total Mobilized: 65, 038, 000 Total Killed or Died: 8, 538, 315 Total Wounded: 21, 220, 00 Total Casualties as a Percentage of those Mobilized: 57. 6%

SYKES – PICOT AGREEMENT SS 1916

The Middle east after World War I TURKEY EGYPT British French Allied Occupation British in Istanbul Italian Spanish Independent HEJAZ

TURKEY 1919 - 1923 RISING FROM THE ASHES Mustafa Kemal Attaturk President 1923 – 1938

North Africa and the Middle East after World W The Arab League The Road to the “Arab Spring: ” The Changing Arab World and American Relations William S. Longwell & Thomas A. Schwartz Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at Vanderbilt University

The three pillars of U. S. policy in the Middle East, 1945 -1991 • 1. ) The contest with the Soviet Union – especially in connection with Europe • 2. ) Support for Israel’s security – and eventually Israel as a “strategic asset” • 3. ) Access to Oil – as central to the functioning of the Western economy – close ties to Saudi Arabia and Iran

The History of U. S. Policy in the Middle East • • 1945 -1991 Three pillars: A. ) Cold War B. ) Israel C. ) Oil 1991 -Present A. ) Terrorism/Iran B. ) Israel C. ) Oil

Greece and Turkey

Iran in early 1946

Crisis in Iran – Mohammed Mossadegh

The Baghdad Pact - CENTO

REVOLUTION IN IRAN 1978 – ‘ 79 Ayatollah Khomeini Shah Muhammad Pahlavi

Iranian Hostage Crisis, November 4, 1979

Carter Doctrine, January 1980

Beginning of Iran-Iraq War, September 1980

Iran-Contra Affair, (Nov. -Dec. 1986)

The Long War with Iraq, 19902003

THE “FREE OFFICERS” REVOLT IN EGYPT 1952 Col. Gamal Nasser and General Naguib Celebrations in Cairo King Faruq

Nasser and Khrushchev

October 1956 - Invasion

The Eisenhower Doctrine of 1957 • assistance and cooperation to include the employment of the armed forces of the United States to secure and protect the territorial integrity and political independence of such nations, requesting such aid, against overt armed aggression from any nation controlled by International Communism.

Nasser and Yemen: The Past as Prequel

UN Partition Plan - 1947

Comparison: Israel in 1949

THE ARAB DEFEAT (al-Naksah)BACLE & THE BIRTH OF “GREATER ISRAEL” THE SIX DAY WAR IN JUNE 1967 Israeli PM Levi Eshkol Israel & the “Occupied Terr. ”: 1967 - 1982 Gen. Moshe Dyan President Nasser King Hussein of Jordan

YOM KIPPUR / RAMADAN WAR IN 1973 TO THE CAMP DAVID ACCORDS IN 1978 Sadat, Carter, & Begin in 1978 Golda Meir Israeli Prime Minister 1969 - 1974 Anwar Sadat President of Egypt 1970 - 1981 Sinai Returned to Egypt 1980 - 1982

Death of Sadat, October 1981 – Role of Islamic jihad

US Forces in Lebanon – 1200 Marines, September 1982

Bombing of Marine barracks, October 1983 – 241 dead

Peace proposals, 2000