Shell Gas LPG Pakistan Limited Growing Energy

Shell Gas LPG (Pakistan) Limited

Growing Energy Gap Case 1(Worst case): 4% GDP growth projections Case II(Best case): 5. 8% GDP growth projections Demand (Million TOEs) Case – I (worst case) Case – II (best case) Deficits (Million TOEs) Case – II 2009 -10 65. 99 71. 04 (19. 31) (24. 37) 2014 -15 79. 84 94. 10 (33. 32) (47. 58) 2019 -20 98. 93 127. 02 Conversion Rate For TOE to LPG MT = TOE*1. 08 (57. 55) (85. 64) -Forecasts prepared by Petroleum Industry of Pakistan (PIP) for the oil marketing & producing companies

2007 Domestic Packed : Demand • Number of households = 24 Million • LPG penetration = 7% • Current estimated segment volume = 160 Kt/annum • Impact of increasing penetration by 1% : 24 K ! (4% Of LPG industry The shaded spots represent 80%+ of current genuine domestic volume Approx. 6 K POS (FMCG POS Universe 200 K+) Volume) • Impact of increasing per capita consumption by 1 kg/month : 21 K ! • Current per month usage = 8 Kg Coverage : key for domestic business development

Commercial Potential • Current estimated commercial volume is 100 K Mt/annum Main segments include; Hotels Bakery Restaurants Sweets Metal cutting Catering Available Potential: • Currently these applications are using wood & coal • To make the conversions conservative, 100% dry coal usage has been assumed Application Estimated LPG Equivalent Consumption/annum Sweets (Khoya & Gur) 800 K Mt Tobacco Curing 100 K Mt Social ceremonies (catering etc) 150 K Mt Rural bakeries, ovens & restaurants 30 K Mt Water Heating 12 K Mt Total 1, 092 Mt

Issues & Challenges • Cross- Filling • Decanting • Pricing caps & Subsidies • Penetration into rural areas • Inland freight infrastructure