SESSION 5 MSS Management Support Systems Pengampu

SESSION 5 : MSS Management Support Systems Pengampu: Taufik Hidayat, S. Kom. , MMSI, Lektor Kepala

THE DSS CONCEPT Gorry and Scott Morton (1971) argued that an information system that focused on single problems faced by single managers would provide better support Central to their concept was a table, called the Gorry-Scott Morton grid (Figure 11. 2) that classifies problems in terms of problem structure and management level The top level is called the strategic planning level, the middle level the management control level, and the lower level the operational control level Gorry and Scott Morton also used the term decision support system (DSS) to describe the systems that could provide the needed support

A DSS MODEL Originally the DSS was conceived to produce periodic and special reports (responses to database queries), and outputs from mathematical models. An ability was added to permit problem solvers to work in groups The addition of groupware enabled the system to function as a group decision support system Figure 11. 3 is a model of a DSS. The arrow at the bottom indicates how the configuration has expanded over time More recently, artificial intelligence capability has been added, along with an ability to engage in online analytical programming (OLAP)

DEFINISI SPK / DSS Definisi SPK : Adalah aplikasi sistem interaktif yang dirancang untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan manajerial pada masalah semiterstruktur Dikembangkan untuk mendukung pemecahan masalah atau mengevaluasi peluang Fokus SPK dapat berubah bukan pada ” apa yang dihasilkan” tetapi pada ”input yang diberikan ” sebagai interaksi antara pemakai dengan sistemnya. (lihat DSS in focus 3. 1 hal 105)

APLIKASI SPK ü ü ü SPK biasanya menggunakan model yang dibuat (seringkali oleh pemakai) dengan proses yang iteratif dan interaktif. Sebuah SPK akan mendukung setiap phase dari pengambilan keputusan: intelligence, design, choice, implementation SPK dapat dijalankan pada sebuah single PC atau berbasis Web sehingga dapat dijalankan oleh semua pihak yang memerlukannya dari berbagai lokasi

PERANGKAT (HARDWARE) UNTUK SPK De facto standard Web server with DBMS: Operates using browser Data stored in variety of databases Can be mainframe, server, workstation, or PC Any network type Access for mobile devices

DSS SOFTWARE DSS : merupakan aplications software yang khusus membantu di setiap tahapan pengambilan keputusan. DSS Generator: merupakan paket software yang digunakan untuk membangun Specific DSS model 1, 2, 3, dst, contoh: Microsoft Excel, dll. DSS Tools (Quantitative Software packages): MOVAVG for production planning to generate demand. NPV (financial), STATlib (statistics), SPSS, Systat, Minitab, SAS, TSP, dll Specific

KARAKTERISTIK SPK Karakteristik dan kapabilitas SPK : mendukung pengambilan keputusan semi terstruktur 2. mendukung semua tingkatan manajemen ( top level sampai line manajemen) 3. mendukung semua individu maupun group 4. mendukung pengambilan keputusan yang berurutan maupun saling bergantungan 5. mendukung semua phase pengambilan keputusan : intelligence, design, choice, implementasi 6. mendukung semua model proses pengambilan keputusan dan gayanya 7. Dapat dengan menyesuaikan situasi waktu itu (lihat fig. 3. 2 hal. 107) 1.

KARAKTERISTIK SPK (LANJUTAN) Karakteristik dan kapabilitas SPK : 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. menggunakan sentuhan perasaan yang terdalam meningkatkan efektifitas pengambilan keputusan dapat dikontrol pemakai pada setiap tahap pengambilan keputusan pemakai dapat mengembangkan dan memodifikasi sesuai kebutuhan model dibuat secara umum untuk situasi pengambilan keputusan menyediakan akses terhadap data dalam format, tipe dan cakupan bahkan area geografis dapat dioperasikan pada perangkat stand-alone (PC) atau dalam jaringan (distributed)

KOMPONEN SPK 1) 2) 3) 4) Data Manajemen subsistem (DMS) User Interface Subsistem (UI) Model Manajemen Subsistem (MMS) Knowledge Based Subsistem (KBMS)

DATA MANAJEMEN SUBSISTEM (DMS) Terdiri database yang berisi data yang relevan dengan situasi pengambilan keputusan, dikelola dengan memakai DBMS. DMS dihubungkan dengan data warehouse perusahaan diakses melalui webserver

MODEL MANAJEMEN SUBSISTEM (MMS) Paket software yang memuat model-model finansial, statistik, manajemen science, atau model kuantitatif lainnya. Menggunakan bahasa pemodelan yang disebut Model Based Management System(MBMS) Komponen model ini dapat dihubungkan ke model perusahaan ataupun model eksternal

PEMODELAN DATABASE Hierarchical Top down, like inverted tree Fields have only one “parent”, each “parent” can have multiple “children” Fast Network Relational Relationships created through linked lists, using pointers “Children” can have multiple “parents” Greater flexibility, substantial overhead Flat, two-dimensional tables with multiple access queries Examines relations between multiple tables Flexible, quick, and extendable with data independence Object oriented Data analyzed at conceptual level Inheritance, abstraction, encapsulation

PEMODELAN DATA

KNOWLEDGE BASED SUBSISTEM (KBMS) Subsistem ini mendukung komponen lainnya. Memungkinkan pemecahan masalah dengan menghubungkan sistem SPK dengan repository knowledge yang ada di perusahaan (Organizational Knowledge based) Catatan : SPK sedikitnya mempunyai tiga komponen yaitu DM, MMS dan UI, sedangkan KBMS adalah optional.

KBMS (LANJUTAN) berisi komponen pengetahuan personal untuk memecahkan masalah yang kompleks meningkatkan kualitas komponen lainnya (DMS, UI, MMS) dapat berisi beberapa modul sistem seringkali teks oriented mengembangkan, menggunakan dan mengelola model berisi lebih dari satu komponen intelijen SPK yang menggunakan KBMS disebut Inteligent DSS

MODEL SKEMATIK SPK

MATHEMATICAL MODELING A model is an abstraction of something. It represents some object or activity, which is called an entity There are four basic types of models: 1. 2. 3. 4. A physical model is a three-dimensional representation of its entity A narrative model, which describes its entity with spoken or written words A graphic model represents its entity with an abstraction of lines, symbols, or shapes (Figure 11. 4) A mathematical formula or equation is a mathematical model

USES OF MODELS Understanding: Once a simple model is understood, it can gradually be made more complex so as to more accurately represent its entity Facilitate Communication: All four types of models can communicate information quickly and accurately Predict the Future: The mathematical model can predict what might happen in the future but a manager must use judgment and intuition in evaluating the output Facilitate A mathematical model can be classified in terms of three dimensions: the influence of time, the degree of certainty, and the ability to achieve optimization

CLASSES OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS A static model doesn’t include time as a variable but deals only with a particular point in time A model that includes time as a variable is a dynamic model: it represents the behavior of the entity over time A model that includes probabilities is called a probabilistic model. Otherwise, it is a deterministic model An optimizing model is one that selects the best solution among the alternatives A sub optimizing model does not identify the decisions that will produce the best outcome but leaves that task to the manager

A MODELING EXAMPLE A firm’s executives may use a math model to assist in making key decisions and to simulate the effect of: 1. 2. 3. 4. the price of the product the amount of plant investment the amount to be invested in marketing activity the amount to be invested in R & D Furthermore, executives want to simulate 4 quarters of activity and produce 2 reports: an operating statement and an income statement Figures 11. 6 and 11. 7 shows the input screen used to enter the scenario data elements for the prior quarter and next quarter, respectively.

MODELING ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES Advantages: The modeling process is a learning experience The speed of the simulation process enables the consideration of a larger number of alternatives Models provide a predictive power - a look into the future that no other information-producing method offers Models are less expensive than the trial-and-error method Disadvantages: The difficulty of modeling a business system will produce a model that does not capture all of the influences on the entity A high degree of mathematical skill is required to develop and properly interpret the output of complex models

GROUP DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS is “a computer-based system supporting groups of people engaged in a common task or goal that provides an interface to a shared environment” The software used in these settings is called groupware The underlying assumption of the GDSS is that improved communications make improved decisions possible Figure 11. 13 shows four possible GDSS settings based on group size and the location of the members GDSS

SETTINGS In each setting, group members may meet at the same or at different times. A synchronous exchange occurs if members meet at the same time. When they meet at different times it’s called an asynchronous exchange A decision room is the setting for small groups of people meeting face-to-face Two unique GDSS features are parallel communication (when all participants enter comments at the same time), and anonymity (when nobody is able to tell who entered a particular comment) When it is impossible for small groups of people to meet face-to-face, the members can interact by means of a local area network, or LAN

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 11 Enhancing Management Decision-Making for the Digital Firm EXECUTIVE SUPPORT IN THE ENTERPRISE Executive Support Systems (ESS): • Information system at strategic level of an organization • Addresses unstructured decision-making through advanced graphics and communications

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 11 Enhancing Management Decision-Making for the Digital Firm EXECUTIVE SUPPORT IN THE ENTERPRISE The Role of Executive Support Systems in the Organization • Brings together data from the entire organization • Allows managers to select, access, and tailor data • Enables executive and any subordinates to look at the same data in the same way

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 11 Enhancing Management Decision-Making for the Digital Firm EXECUTIVE SUPPORT IN THE ENTERPRISE Benefits of Executive Support Systems • Analyzes, compares, and highlights trends • Provides greater clarity and insight into data • Speeds up decision-making

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 11 Enhancing Management Decision-Making for the Digital Firm EXECUTIVE SUPPORT IN THE ENTERPRISE Benefits of Executive Support Systems • Improves management performance • Increases management’s span of control • Better monitoring of activities

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 11 Enhancing Management Decision-Making for the Digital Firm EXECUTIVE SUPPORT IN THE ENTERPRISE Executive Support Systems and the Digital Firm ESS for business intelligence: • Identifies changing market conditions • Formulates responses • Tracks implementation efforts • Learns from feedback

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 11 Enhancing Management Decision-Making for the Digital Firm EXECUTIVE SUPPORT IN THE ENTERPRISE Executive Support Systems and the Digital Firm Monitoring corporate performance: balanced scorecard systems • Model for analyzing firm performance • Supplements traditional financial measures with measurements from additional business perspectives

SISTEM INFORMASI EKSEKUTIF (EIS) Sistem informasi yang menyediakan fasilitas yang fleksibel bagi manajer dan eksekutif dalam mengakses informasi eksternal dan internal yang berguna untuk mengidentifikasi masalah atau mengenali peluang Pemakai yang awam dengan komputerpun tidak sulit mengoperasikannya karena sistem dilengkapi dengan antarmuka yang sangat memudahkan pemakai untuk menggunakannya (user-friendly).

SISTEM INFORMASI EKSEKUTIF (EIS)

MENGAPA EIS BERBEDA DENGAN MIS DAN DSS? MIS menyediakan laporan-laporan standar yang dibuat berdasarkan periode yang tertentu (harian, mingguan, dan sebagainya). Hasilnya dipakai untuk memantau indikator-indikator yang sama dari waktu ke waktu dan tak dapat digunakan untuk menganalisis masalah atau situasi baru. DSS awalnya dirancang untuk menganalisa masalah dan situasi baru, tetapi dalam prakteknya perangkat yang disediakan terlalu menuntut kepakaran. Hanya analis yang bisa memanfaatkannya. Sementara itu, hanya sedikit manajer yang mempunyai kemampuan analis. Oleh karena itu, DSS jarang dipakai secara langsung oleh eksekutif pada tingkat menengah dan atas.

CONTOH EIS

KARAKTERISTIK EIS Dapat digunakan untuk meringkas, menapis, dan memperoleh detil data Menyediakan. analisis kecenderungan (trend analysis), pelaporan perkecualian, dan kemampuan drill-down Dapat digunakan untuk mengakses dan memadukan data internal dan eksternal Mudah digunakan dan terkadang tidak perlu atau hanya perlu sedikit pelatihan untuk menggunakannya Dapat digunakan secara langsung oleh eksekutif tanpa perantara Menyajikan informasi dalam bentuk teks, grafik, dan tabel Terkadang dilengkapi fasilitas komunikasi elektronis (email dan konferensi dengan komputer), kemampuan analisis data (spreadsheet, bahasa query, dan DSS), dan perangkat produktivitas pribadi (seperti kalendar elektronis)

An EIS Model Information requests Executive database Personal computer Information displays Executive workstation To other executive workstation Corporate database Electronic mailboxes Software library Make corporate information available To other executive workstation Current news, explanations Corporate mainframe External data and information 16 -44

DIALOGUE BETWEEN EXECUTIVE AND EIS Typically by a series of menus, keyboarding is minimized Drill down to specific information needed from the overview level Action language (how the user directs the EIS system for input and process) Presentation Language (how the EIS provides output for the user: text, graphics, tables, images, video, combination). Knowledge Base (user friendliness and AI) 16 -45

EIS SCREENS Information Screens : Comparisons, trends, explanations (texts, graphics, tables, images, video, etc), news, visual aids, soft info, references, announcements, entertainment, history, etc. System Screens : location/navigation aids (menus and submenus), system interfaces (activation of printer, other instructions), and larifications/assistance (help screens, tutorial, etc).

An Information Display That Includes a Computer. Generated Narrative Explanation MEDIAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP x 1 0 0 Actual 16 -47 MIG Product Profitability Analysis Magazines in Europe have been performing poorly. While sales are up, production costs have soared. This is due to the labor disputes in the pulp and paper industry. Starting next month, costs should be back in line with earlier projections. Planned Variance %Variance Newspapers 1, 421, 709 1, 559, 184 (137, 475) (8. 82) Magazines 490, 855 518, 687 (27, 832) (5. 37) Periodicals 1, 912, 564 2, 077, 872 (165, 308) (7. 96)

SALES - $ IN MILLIONS AS OF NOVEMBER 1994 HISTORY BUDGET ACTUAL SOURCE GLORIA YANDERS BILL BLASS CURRENT FORECAST YEAR TO DATE OVER/ UNDER MB PROGRAM ACTUAL THIS MO LAST MO HERC $861. 4 $30. 7 $59. 1 C-5 B 621. 9 0. 3 4. 5 OTHER 398. 7 12. 9 10. 1 TOTAL $1, 882. 0 $43. 9 $44. 4 COMMENTS YEAR-END FORECAST CURRENT FORECAST Y-L O/U MB YR CURRENT O/ U PRIOR $949. 8 $28. 6 95 $2102. 6 $ 8. 0 699. 0 1. 2 96 2400. 0 105. 0 458. 8 13. 6 97 3130. 0 98. 0 $2107. 6 $43. 4 98 3390. 0 58. 0 99 2110. 0 281. 0 FAVORABLE VARIANCE PRIMARILY DUE TO TWO ADDITIONAL HERCULES SALES 16 -48

JENIS PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN 1. 2. 3. H. Simon, menggolongkan jenis pengambilan keputusan menjadi 3 : terstruktur : rutin, berulang, metode pemecahannya standar semi terstruktur : gabungan tersetruktur dan tidak terstruktur : rumit, dan tidak ada standar memecahkannya

PHASE PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN 1. 2. 3. 4. Proses pengambilan keputusan melalui phase : intelligence : mengumpulkan seluruh kondisi untuk pengambilan keputusan design: menemukan, menganalisis dan mengembangkan alternatif solusi choice : memilih alternatif yang terbaik implementation : melaksanakan solusi yang dipilih tsb dan mengevaluasinya

KEPUTUSAN Tipe PK Operasional Manajerial Terstruktur / A/P, A/R, Order terprogram Entry Strategic Analisa Anggaran, Manajemen dana, Forecast, Pergudanan, Pelaporan SDM Jadwalan proyek, Tidak Terstruktur Membeli software Persetujuan loan Help desk Merger & akuisisi, Plan lini produk, Plan kompensasi, Menilai kualitas, Sistem balas jasa Semi Terstruktur Jadwal Produksi Penilaian kredit, Pengawasan Per- Penyiapan angg, sediaan Lay-ou pabrik, Sistem distribusi Kebijakan SDM Negosiasi, Rekruitmen, Perencanaan. R&D Dev. teknologi Planning sosial Membelihardware

Management Information System (MIS), Terstruktur / TEKNOLOGI PK terprogram Management Science Transaction Processing System Semi Terstruktur Decision Support System(DSS), Knowledge Management System (KMS) Group Support System (GSS) Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Supply Chain Management (SCM) Tidak Terstruktur Group Support System (GSS) Knowledge Management System (KMS) Expert System (ES) Neural Network System (NNS)

BAGAIMANA KEPUTUSAN DIDUKUNG

PHASE 1 : INTELLIGENCE Kegiatan : ü mengawasi/meneliti lingkungan ü menganalisis tujuan organisasi ü mengumpulkan data ü mengidentifikasi problema ü mengkategorikan problem (programable – no programable) ü menilai pemilik (stakeholder) dan penanggungjawab masalah 54

PHASE 2 : DESIGN Kegiatan ü mengembangkan alternatif tindakan ü analisis solusi yang terbaik ü menyusun model ü test terhadap kelayakan ü validasi hasil ü menetapkan prinsip-prinsip pemilihan : - tentukan objektif - modelkan - penilaian terhadap risiko - menentukan kriteria dan batasan 55

PHASE 3 : CHOICE adalah bagian paling kritis dalam pengambilan keputusan Kegiatan : memilih, evaluasi dan rekomendasi prinsip pemilihan, merupakan gambaran terhadap diterimanya pendekatan solusi model : Ø optimasi Ø rasionalisasi Ø suboptimasi Ø Desktiptif model 56

OPTIMASI Pengertian : Model normatif dengan menampilkan semua kemungkinan terbaik dan mempertimbagkan dampaknya pada keseluruhan organisasi. Terdapat tiga langkah yaitu : tentukan goal tertinggi, lalu menentukan resources untuk mencapainya (misalnya, berapakah keuntungan paling tinggi jika investasi sebesar 10 M) menemukan alternatif dengan menghitung rasio tertinggi antara goal terhadap biaya atau memaksimalkan produktifitas menemukan alternatif dengan biaya terendah, yang paling efisien untuk mencapai goal 57

RASIONALISASI Model normatif berdasarkan asumsi : memaksimalkan goal (yang seharusnya lebih besar ditingkatkan; sedangkan yang seharusnya kecil dikurangi) tiap tindakan ada konsekuensinya pilihan diurutkan dari yang terbaik sampai yang paling jelek 58

SUBOPTIMASI Model normatif pengambilan keputusan tanpa memperhatikan dampak setiap pilihan pada seluruh kegiatan organisasi. Contoh : Pada suboptimisasi, keputusan dibuat pada bagian penjualan di dalam organisasi tanpa memperhatikan dampak pada keseluruhan organiasi. 59

MODEL DESKRIPTIF menyatakan bagaimana semua pihak diyakinkan berdasarkan model matematika diterapkan untuk satu set dari alternatif contoh : simulasi, what If dsb 60

MENTAL MODELS, HARD AND SOFT INFORMATION models: simplified descriptions and analogies processed by the user based on kinds of information taken from the EIS to synthesized into new knowledge used as decision making support. Hard Information : fixed processed information taken from TPS (transaction Processing System) and other systems. Soft Information: Rumors, Gossip, Opinions, ideas, speculations, etc taken trough a variety of media : browsers, teleconferencing media, informal surveys, etc. Mental

EXPERT SYSTEMS

MODEL KONSEPTUAL SISTEM PAKAR

BAGIAN SISTEM PAKAR Basis pengetahuan merupakan komponen yang berisi pengetahuan-pengetahuan yang berasal dari pakar. Berisi sekumpulan fakta (fact) dan aturan (rule). Fakta berupa situasi masalah dan teori tentang area masalah. Aturan adalah suatu arahan yang menggunakan pengetahuan untuk memecahkan masalah pada bidang tertentu.

CONTOH ATURAN

CONTOH APLIKASI SISTEM PAKAR XSEL Sistem pakar ini dapat bertindak sebagai asisten penjual, yang membantu penjual komputer DEC memilihkan pesanan pelanggan sesuai dengan kebutuhan MYCIN Sistem ini dikembangkan di Universitas Stanford pada pertengahan 1970 -an dengan tujuan untuk membantu jurumedis dalam mendiagnosa penyakit yang disebabkan bakteri. PROSPECTOR Sistem ini diciptakan oleh Richard Duda, Peter Hard, dan Rene Reboh pada tahun 1978 yang menyediakan kemampuan seperti seorang pakar di bidang geologi.

CONTOH DIALOG SISTEM PAKAR Sistem pakar: Apakah buah berbentuk bulat? Pemakai: Ya Sistem pakar: Apakah buah berwarna hijau ketika muda dan kuning ketika sudah tua? Pemakai: Tidak Sistem pakar: Apakah buah berwarna hijau ketika muda dan merah ketika sudah tua? Pemakai: Ya Sistem pakar: Apakah berbatang? Pemakai: Ya Sistem pakar: Menurut pengetahuan yang saya miliki, Apel memenuhi kriteria yg anda sebutkan.

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 10 Managing Knowledge for the Digital Firm ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Capturing Knowledge: Expert Systems Knowledge Base Rule-based Expert System Rule Base Knowledge Frames

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 10 Managing Knowledge for the Digital Firm ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Inference Engines in Expert Systems Figure 10 -11

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 10 Managing Knowledge for the Digital Firm ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Rules in an AI Program Figure 10 -9

Essentials of Management Information Systems Chapter 10 Managing Knowledge for the Digital Firm ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Building an Expert System Knowledge engineer Specialist eliciting information and expertise from other professionals Translates information into set of rules, or frames, for an expert system Blue. Cross Blue. Shield of North Carolina Countrywide Funding Corp.

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT (CRM) CRM recognizes that customers are the core of a business and that a company’s success depends on effectively managing relationships with them. It focuses on building long–term and sustainable customer relationships that add value both for the customer and the company. Types of CRM Operational CRM Analytical CRM Collaborative CRM

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT (CRM) (CONTINUED)

ELECTRONIC CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT (E-CRM) CRM has been practiced manually by corporations for generations. However, e-CRM (electronic CRM) started in the mid-1990’s , when customers began using Web browsers, the Internet, and other electronic touch points. l THE SCOPE OF E-CRM. We can differentiate three levels of e-CRM: l Foundational service. This includes the minimum necessary services such as Website responsiveness (e. g. , how quickly and accurately the service is provided), site effectiveness, and order fulfillment. l Customer-centered services. These services include order tracking, product configuration and customization, and security/trust. These are the services that matter the most to customers. l Value-added services. These are extra services such as online auctions and online training and education.

CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT CRM ACTIVITIES Customer Service on the Web Search and Comparison Capabilities Free Products and Services Technical and Other Information and Service Allowing Customers to Order Products and Services Online Letting Customers Track Accounts or Order Status Tools for Customer Service Personalized Web Pages FAQs Chat Rooms E-Mail and Automated Response Call Centers Troubleshooting Tools Wireless CRM

TUGAS PEMAHAMAN 3 A (INDIVIDU) setiap mahasiswa menyerahkan hasil tertulis dari pelaksanaan diskusi berikut ini: Bagaimana pandangan kelompok saudara terhadap kelebihan dan kekurangan masing sistem informasi berikut: * MIS (Management Information System) * DSS (Decision Support System) * EIS (Executive Information System) * ES (Expert Systems) * CRM (Customer Relationship Management)

TUGAS PEMAHAMAN 3 B (INDIVIDU) Sesuai dengan pengalaman hidup atau pengalaman kerja masing-masing peserta, beri contoh konkrit keputusan terstruktur, semi terstruktur, dan tidak terstruktur yang terjadi di lingkungan organisasi / pemerintahan / sosial, dsb terutama pada divisi HR. Mana dari macam keputusan tersebut yang proses pembuatan keputusannya memerlukan bantuan MIS, DSS, EIS, CRM, ataukah Sistem Pakar dan sejauh mana kepentingan keperluan tersebut.

THE END