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SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT Dr. Carlos E. Ventura Kate Thibert & Hugón Juárez García February SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT Dr. Carlos E. Ventura Kate Thibert & Hugón Juárez García February 26 th, 2007 1

Acknowledgements Dr José Martí, Dr Jorge Hollman, David Grigg (Campus and Community Planning), Alejandro Acknowledgements Dr José Martí, Dr Jorge Hollman, David Grigg (Campus and Community Planning), Alejandro Cervantes, Juan Carlos Carvajal, Jack Rong, Lucy Liu, Paul Couch and Dave Mancini Matt Shannon and Natanella Vukojevic (Records office), Erin Kastner and Doug Smith (UBC Utilities), John Manougian (Hospital), JIIRP members (Professors and students) 2

Outline n Seismic Risk Assessment n Building Damage Assessment n Lifeline Damage Assessment n Outline n Seismic Risk Assessment n Building Damage Assessment n Lifeline Damage Assessment n UBC Campus Case n Ongoing and Future Tasks n Conclusions 3

Our Goals n Evolve from a Culture of Reaction into a Culture of Preparedness Our Goals n Evolve from a Culture of Reaction into a Culture of Preparedness n Analysis of Interdependencies among Critical Infrastructures Evaluate Hazards n Develop Scenarios n Analysis of critical interdependencies n Reconsider strategies n 4

Seismic Risk Assessment Seismic hazard assessment Site specific ground motion parameters Soil related problems Seismic Risk Assessment Seismic hazard assessment Site specific ground motion parameters Soil related problems (liquefaction, subsidence, and others) Tsunamis, etc Indirect damage Floods Fire Indirect Losses Survey Classification and characterization of the structural systems and lifelines Database Direct damage Buildings Non structural Lifelines Direct Losses Affected inhabitants (deaths, injured, homeless) 5 Economic loss

Seismic Risk Select Probability Level PGA / MMI Building Vulnerability Seismic Risk Seismic Hazard Seismic Risk Select Probability Level PGA / MMI Building Vulnerability Seismic Risk Seismic Hazard Building Type Damage Tables % Damage and $ Loss 6

Seismic Hazard 7 Source: GSC Seismic Hazard 7 Source: GSC

Vulnerability The seismic behaviour of a structure depends on: • The structure • Non-structural-components Vulnerability The seismic behaviour of a structure depends on: • The structure • Non-structural-components (equipment, electric generators, pumps, pipelines, etc) • Lifelines (electricity, water, gas, communication systems, highways, etc) 8

Buildings 9 Buildings 9

Estimation of building damage n Building classification n Structural Damage n Damage to Non Estimation of building damage n Building classification n Structural Damage n Damage to Non structural components n Casualties n Economic Loss n Functionality parameters 10

Lifelines 11 Lifelines 11

Lifelines n. Highways n. Railways n. Air transportation n. Sea water transportation n. Electrical Lifelines n. Highways n. Railways n. Air transportation n. Sea water transportation n. Electrical n. Water supply n. Sanitary sewer 12

Example: Water Supply System Water supply system Reservoir Underground Pipeline (from the reservoir to Example: Water Supply System Water supply system Reservoir Underground Pipeline (from the reservoir to the power house) Building (concrete structure) (30%) Pumping stations Power House (100%) Mechanical equipment (50%) Underground Pipeline (leaving the power house) Electrical equipment (20%) 13

UBC Campus Case Study n Why modeling UBC campus? UBC campus shares attributes of UBC Campus Case Study n Why modeling UBC campus? UBC campus shares attributes of a small city n 47, 000 daily transitory occupants n 10, 000 full time residents n well defined residential, recreational and business areas n own utility providers n Information accessibility n Objective of the Campus Case: n Earthquake scenarios developed to analyze consequences for infrastructures and people. n Collect UBC’s infrastructure information in a GIS feature n Seismic Risk Assessment of UBC campus is just a part of the project n 14

UBC Campus Results n Approximately 400 buildings on UBC Campus were assessed n Building UBC Campus Results n Approximately 400 buildings on UBC Campus were assessed n Building inventory data from three sources: 1995 Assessment n Records Office n Sidewalk survey n n Damage Assessed for MMI VIII, IX and X 15

UBC Campus Results (preliminary) 16 UBC Campus Results (preliminary) 16

What are the most important lifelines at UBC campus? n Power n pumping (water, What are the most important lifelines at UBC campus? n Power n pumping (water, steam, oil), air conditioning, heaters, refrigeration systems, telephone, internet, media, light, information systems, gas, oil n Water n (drinking, sewer, storm) n Transportation n Services + supplies 17

Underground Water Pipelines • Main 24 km For a MMI = VIII, üMain, 17 Underground Water Pipelines • Main 24 km For a MMI = VIII, üMain, 17 breaks • Sec 45 km 0. 69 breaks / km üSec, 31 breaks 18

Ongoing Tasks Building Assessment § § § Non Structural Components Assessment Casualties Assessment Hazard Ongoing Tasks Building Assessment § § § Non Structural Components Assessment Casualties Assessment Hazard Assessment Ambient Vibration Tests on “key” buildings Microtremor test of “UBC site” to determine site characteristics Non structural vibration tests 19

Ongoing tasks Lifeline Assessment § A survey of important lifelines within UBC campus Pipelines Ongoing tasks Lifeline Assessment § A survey of important lifelines within UBC campus Pipelines (water, gas, sewer, etc) n Transportation (highways, roadways, etc) n Services (health facilities, telecommunications, commerce, etc) § Account for the different problems that affect the seismic behaviour of lifelines (soil, interaction, standards, age, etc) § Important lifelines outside UBC campus that will affect functionality § Vibration tests of existing infrastructure n 20

Future tasks – Seismic Risk Assessment of Selected Areas of the GVRD 21 Source: Future tasks – Seismic Risk Assessment of Selected Areas of the GVRD 21 Source: GVRD

Seismic Risk Assessment of Vancouver Building Damage - Preliminary Results 22 Seismic Risk Assessment of Vancouver Building Damage - Preliminary Results 22

Building Structural Damage 23 Building Structural Damage 23

Building Monetary Losses 24 Building Monetary Losses 24

Building Structural Damage and Monetary Losses 25 Building Structural Damage and Monetary Losses 25

Conclusions n The research is ongoing, therefore some of the results shown in this Conclusions n The research is ongoing, therefore some of the results shown in this presentation are preliminary and subject to further change n Vibration test will help to confirm the damage relationships and seismic behaviour n JIIRP is a very important study which will help us prepare for and understand disaster scenarios in a holistic way 26

Thank you 27 Thank you 27