Security of Supply for Smart Economies or Delivering

Security of Supply for Smart Economies or Delivering the Digital Dividend September 2009

IRELAND

“A goal without a plan is just a wish” Antoine de Saint-Exupery

“It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do so in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years……” Arthur C. Clarke

The Centre for Future Studies

CHINA ICELAND EUROPE FINLAND NORWAY SWEDEN Heilongjiang RUSSIA Jilin Xinjiang Tibet Liaoning Beijing Gansu Inner Tianjin Mongol Ningxia Hebei Shanxi ia Shandong Qinghai Jiangsu Henan Shaanxi Shanghai Hubei Anhui Sichuan Chongqing Zhejiang Hunan Jiangxi Guizhou Fujian Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan Hainan DENMARK IRELAND UNITED KINGDOM PORTUGAL SPAIN ESTONIA LATVIA LITHUANIA BELARUS NETH. POLAND GERMANY BELGIUM LUX. UKRAINE CZECH SLOVAKIA FRANCE AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND MOLDOVA HUNGARY SLOVENIA CROATIA ROMANIA BOSNIA and. SERBIA HERZ. and ITALY MONT. BULGARIA MACEDONIA ALBANIA GREECE MALTA AUSTRALIA SINGAPORE

An Operator A Regulator £ An Advisor A Politician

The Public/Private Divide Time-lines Due Process The Metrics “Two Countries Divided by A Common Language” Key Jurisdictions Contribution Measures Consistency & Privacy Media Influence

The Strategy Dilemma Countries NRA’S Institutions Corporates

The Eight Truths 1. DEMAND & TRAFFIC VOLUMES (IP) ARE X 2 EVERY X 2 2. ROBUST, RELIABLE FIXED TELCO NETWORKS ARE ESSENTIAL 3. DEBT, CAPITAL & EQUITY MARKETS ARE CHALLENGING 4. THE COSTS, THE BENEFITS AND THE REVENUES FROM NGA INVESTMENT FALL IN DIFFERENT PLACES 5. OPERATORS SHORT-TERMISM BREACHES TRUST & CLOSES THE PUBLIC DEAL SPACE 6. POLITICS IS AT BEST A BLEND OF TACTICS & VISION 7. POLICY MAKERS CAN CONFUSE PROCESS WITH PROGRESS 8. THE BURDEN OF PROOF ON MARKET INTERVENTION/FAILURE HAS SHIFTED

The U. K. Backdrop STRUCTURAL VS OPERATIONAL SEPERATION FIXED VS MOBILE VS CABLE FIBRE VS COPPER/CABLE/LTE BUSINESS VS RETAIL CAPITAL VS PROFIT/REVENUE POOL SOFT VS HARD POWER

Digital Britain The Background & The Objectives 1. ACHIEVING UNIVERSAL CONNECTIVITY 2. WIRED & WIRELESS NGA CAPABILITY 3. A DIGITAL ECONOMIC ECOLOGY 4. UK ORIGINATED CONTENT & PROTECTED PUBLIC CONTENT 5. DIGITAL SWITCHOVER OF PUBLIC SERVICES 6. ENHANCING PUBLIC PROCUREMENT & SAFETY/SECURITY

DIGITAL BRITAIN DELIVERY • • • • UNIVERSALITY SPECTRUM MODERNISATION NGA DEPLOYMENT INFRASTRUCTURE IMPORTANCE DIGITAL RADIO • FISCAL INCENTIVES FOR CONTENT • ANTI-PIRACY MEASURES • BBC REVIEW CURRICULUM REVISION PROCUREMENT UPDATE CYBER SECURITY NETWORK RESILIENCE PUBLIC DATA ACCESS PROGRAMME DEBATE FUNDING MECHANISM FOR NGA BBC REACH & REMIT PIRACY LIABILITY

DIGITAL IRELAND “The Innovation Ireland/Island” • • • LANGUAGE, LOCATION, SIZE FISCAL POLICIES AND CONSUMER CONTRIBUTION RESEARCH TECH CAPABILITIES GOVT COMMITMENT NEW OWNERSHIP/NEW MANAGEMENT/NEW OPPORTUNITIES • EUROPEAN FLEXIBILITY/FRAMEWORK

DIGITAL IRELAND SOME QUESTIONS 1. WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE INCUMBENT FIXED LINE TEL COMPANY? 2. ARE/IS FIBRE/UPGRADED FIXED ACCESS NETWORK DEPLOYMENT ESSENTIAL? 3. WHAT IS THE CURRENT & LIKELY COST OF CAPITAL/DEBT/EQUITY? 4. WHAT ARE THE PRICE/INNOVATION/COMPETITION TRADE-OFFS? 5. WHAT FREEDOM/INDEPENDENCE/POLITICAL SUPPORT DOES THE REGULATORY REGIME HAVE? 6. WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF COMPLIMENTARITYY/COMPETITION & CONVERGENCE BETWEEN FIXED & MOBILE? 7. IS THERE POLITICAL/COMMERCIAL/PERSONALITY CONVERGENCE TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY?

DIGITAL EUROPE