Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, Belgrade
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Verification n Atlantic SST/NAO n Overview of models n Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria and the SEECOF region n
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria +2 warm +2 +1 warm or normal 0 normal -1 cold or normal -2 cold no forecast n Baseline period 1980 -2009 0 normal dry or nor mal -2 all categories +1 wet or nor mal -1 wet dry
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Forecast Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Category June 0 1 0 July 0 1 August 1 Summer 1 Temperature Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 0. 44 4 3 4 0 0. 22 4 3 4 -1 1 1. 84 3 0 3 1 0 1. 22 4 4 2 Forecast Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Category June 0 -1 0 July 1 0 August 0 Summer 0 Precipitation n Skill Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 1. 28 2 0 2 1 0. 25 3 4 3 1 0 -1. 38 2 0 0 0. 30 4 4 4
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Forecast Score Temperature Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Index Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 December 0 0 0 -1. 29 2 2 2 January 1 1 0 0. 73 4 4 3 February 0 1 1 1. 47 2 4 4 Winter 1 1 1 0. 69 4 4 4 Forecast Score Precipitation Skill Month-2 Month-3 Index Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 December n Month-1 1 1 0 1. 63 3 3 0 January -1 -1 0 0. 59 0 0 3 February 1 -1 0 1. 63 3 0 0 Winter 0 0 0 1. 83 0 0 0
Winter Forecast NAO n How Bulgarian winters relate to NAO. CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 0 50 25 NAO- 25 50 0 25 CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 17 33 25 NAO- 25 33 17 25
Winter Forecast ENSO/NAO n How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO La Nina CD CW WD WW NAO+ 32 18 NAO- 32 32 18 18 El Nino CD CW WD WW NAO+ 18 18 32 32 NAO- 18 32
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 n North Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 n North Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 n North Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 n North Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 n North Atlantic SST
Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO) n NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable. n El. Nino/La. Nina – indifferent phase.
Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO) ENSO 0 CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 17 33 25 NAO- 25 33 17 25
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 n Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec 2013 -Feb 2014 for Bulgaria Temperature 2014 DJF Precipitation 2014 DJF EUROSIP ECMWF Met. Office NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis * * EUROSIP ECMWF Met. Office NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis *
Winter 2013/14 by Months Temperature Ibimet BCC Synthesis January February Synthesis of monthly predictions for the winter months in Bulgaria TCC December n NCEP Precipitation NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Синтез December January February
Winter 2013/14 Synthesis Temperature December January February Month Winter Precip itation Mont h Wint er Decem ber Januar y Febru ary
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region NW Balk NE Balk SW Balk Black Sea SE Balk Caucasus W Cauc Aegean Sea Greece NE Turk SW Turk Mediterranean NW Turk SE Turk Sea Israel E Cauc
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Temperature NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel BCC -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 2 TCC -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 ECMWF 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Met. Office -1 -1 -1 NCEP 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 IRI 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 0. 2 0. 0 0. 7 Synthesis EUROSIP -0. 2 -0. 2 0. 0
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Precipitaton NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel BCC -1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 TCC 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 1 ECMWF -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 Met. Office -1 -1 1 -1 -2 NCEP 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 Synthesis -0. 4 -0. 6 0. 25 0. 4 -1 0. 4 -0. 6 -1 EUROSIP 0. 25 -0. 6
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Temperature Blac Cau k casu s -0. 2 Sea 0. 2 -0. 2 Aeg ean 0. 2 Sea -0. 2 Me dite rran ean Sea 0 Isra el 0
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Precipitation -0. 4 -0. 6 0. 25 Aegean Sea Black Sea Caucasus -0. 75 Sea -1 0. 4 Mediterranean 0. 4 -0. 6 Israel -0. 6 0. 25
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region
Seasonal Forecasting at the Bulgarian Weather Service Ilian Gospodinov Ilian. Gospodinov@meteo. bg National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
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