Searching for the Big Picture: Systems Theories of Accelerating Change Stanford Singularity Summit May 2006 Palo Alto, CA (Minor Updates Mar 2007) John Smart, President, ASF Slides: accelerating. org/slides
A Story in Three Acts Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit We’ll consider: Framework, Picture, Painter With Correspondence to: Genes, Environment, Organism (in Organismic Biology) Development, System, Evolution (in ‘Evolutionary’ Biology) Rules & Limits, Observed, Observer (in Information Theory) Laws & Constants, Universe, Intelligence (in Cosmology) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Act I: The Framework Intelligence, MEST Compression, and Evolutionary Development
Intelligence: An Evolutionary Process The ‘Driver’ (Steering Mechanism) of Accelerating Change
Our Infopomorphic, Biofelicitous, Accelerating Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The universe is a physical-computational system. We exist for information theoretic reasons. We’re here to evolve and develop, To create, discover, and manage, To care, count, and act, To innovate, plan, profit, and predict. . . Los Angeles New York Palo Alto In a wondrously ordered, elegant, and surprising environment. © 2006 Accelerating. org
“Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of Science and the Microcosm (Wigner and Mead) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on simple universalities and symmetries in mathematical physics. F=ma E=mc 2 W=(1/2 mv 2) F=-(Gm 1 m 2)/r 2 Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm, ” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0. 15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biological-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Pierre Teihard de Chardin (1881 -1955) Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 © 2006 Accelerating. org
De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth Acceleration Studies Foundation "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic (mental) affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively. " A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition” © 2006 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Studies: Something Curious Is Going On Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Developmental Spiral An unexplained physical phenomenon. (Don’t look for this in your current Los Angeles New York Palo Alto physics or information theory texts…) © 2006 Accelerating. org
Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc. ) double their complexity every 12 -24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000 X (Ten doublings: 2, 4, 8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density). © 2006 Accelerating. org
Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0. 19 y 1960) Dickerson’s law predicted 14, 201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14, 250. Just 49 more. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent. © 2006 Accelerating. org
A Few Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Almost Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace… Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U. S. Great Depression of the 1930’s. Conclusion: Human-discovered, Not human-created complexity here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999 trajectory. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “MEST compression is a rigged game. ” © 2006 Accelerating. org
Henry Adams, 1909: Our First “Singularity Theorist” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Adam’s final Ethereal Phase would last about four years, and "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities. " (Singularity 1921 -2025) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Los Angeles Singularity 2130 ± 20 years New York Palo Alto Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2080 ± 30 years © 2006 Accelerating. org
Macrohistorical Singularity Books Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2050 ± 10 years The Singularity is Near, 2005 Singularity 2045 ± 20 years © 2006 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression: A Developmental Process The ‘Engine’ (Motive Force) of Accelerating Change
The MESTI Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Matter, Energy, Space, Time Information Increasingly Understood Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency is the ever decreasing MEST resources required for any standard physical process or computation. The engine of accelerating change. “More, Better, with Less. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression Creates a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Our machines are stunningly more MEST efficient with each new generation. Our main candidates for future computational technology (nanomolecular and quantum computing, reversible logic, etc. ) require little or no energy. We are all moving to increasingly energy efficient, sustainable, and virtual cities. Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service Economies. Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been flat for almost three decades in the developed world. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Apparent ‘Engine’ of Accelerating Change: l MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density of Information Emergent Properties: l Information Intelligence (World Models) l Information Interdepence (Ethics) l Information Immunity (Resiliency) l Information Incompleteness (Search) An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: ↑ Entropy = ↑ Negentropy Loss of Energy Potential fuels gain of Information Potential. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto A hidden metapotential may be conserved. © 2006 Accelerating. org
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: The Decelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The Accelerating Phase of Universal Development Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Big Bang Singularity Developmental Singularity? 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 100, 000 yrs: Matter 100, 000 yrs ago: H. sap. 1 B yrs: Protogalaxies Los Angeles New York Palo Alto 8 B yrs: Earth © 2006 Accelerating. org
Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Free Energy Rate Density Substrate Galaxies Stars (like our Sun) Planets (Early) Plants Animals/Genetics Brains (Human) Culture (Human) Int. Comb. Engines Jets Pentium Chips Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (ergs/second/gram) Ф 0. 5 2 (counterintuitive!) 75 900 20, 000(10^4) 150, 000(10^5) 500, 000(10^5) (10^6) (10^8) (10^11) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 time © 2006 Accelerating. org
Smart’s Laws of Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit 2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P 2 P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck, the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers). Los Angeles New York Palo Alto These are, of course, just rules of thumb. But the first reminds us we are no longer the fastest learning substrate on the planet (though we are yet the most complex, at present). The second reminds us that we don’t control where tech goes ultimately, we only control (guide consciously, or not) the course of its emergence. The third reminds us that we usually don’t get our tech right on the first generation. It is therefore incumbent on designers, and as the innovation-subsidizing public, to realize this and get us through the dehumanizing early versions as fast as possible. © 2006 Accelerating. org
“NBICS”: Five Domains for Strategic Technological Development Acceleration Studies Foundation l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications) It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A. I. , multimedia, internet, wireless It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies. Every technology has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion. Los Angeles First mover and second mover advantages. New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Recognizing the Levers of Nano and Infotech Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand I will move the world. " Archimedes of Syracuse (287 -212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world. ” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) © 2006 Accelerating. org
Disruptive MEST Compression in Nanospace: Holey Optical Fibers for Microlasers Acceleration Studies Foundation Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal, " can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable. A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (106) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw -dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the ICT and networking revolutions. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20 th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. © 2006 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression Regularly Disrupts Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Toshiba Li-Ion Nanobattery 80% recharge in 60 seconds Two orders of magnitude jump in capacity. 99% duty after 1, 000 cycles Reliable at temp extremes Cost competitive What Might This Enable? l New consumer wearable and mobile electronics l Military apps l Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“ 90% of an electric vehicle economy”) “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet. ” ― William Gibson Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen. , Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component. Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds, keep 99% of their duty after 1, 000 cycles. 180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only. Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Driving Toward an Electric Future, ” John Smart, 2006 © 2006 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression Implication: Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l Technological (dominant since 1920 -50) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed) l Economic (dominant 1800 -1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) l Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first. ” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Pluralism examples: 40, 000 NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Accelerating Ephemeralization and Our Increasingly ‘Weightless’ Economy Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization, ” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage. " (e. g. , sending virtual bits to do physical work) Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc. ) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity. In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto This trend has also been called “virtualization, ” “weightlessness, ” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density. © 2006 Accelerating. org
MEST Compression and Inner Space: The Final Frontier? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998. Real structures in spacetime (very large and very small) are: • Computationally very simple and tractable (transparent) • A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development • Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science • A “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of emergence of universal intelligence versus Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain © 2006 Accelerating. org
Evolutionary Development: In Physics, Biology, and Beyond A New Paradigm for Change
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Complex Environmental Interaction Evolutionary Development: The Left and Right Hands of Change Left Hand Los Angeles New York Palo Alto New Computat’l Phase Space ‘Opening’ Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence, Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Right Hand Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’ © 2006 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution Differential Multicellularity Discovered Complex Environmental Interaction Cambrian Explosion (570 mya) Bacteria Insects Invertebrates Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Vertebrates 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since. Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Los Angeles New York Palo Alto For more: Wallace Arthur, John Odling-Smee, Simon Conway Morris, Rudy. Raff © 2006 Accelerating. org
Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Replication, Variation Natural Selection Pseudo-Random Search Evolution Complex Interaction Memetic Evolutionary Development Selection, Convergence Convergent Selection MEST Compression Development Variations on this ev. dev. model have been proposed for: Neural arboral pruning to develop brains (Edelman, Neural Darwinism, ‘ 88) Neural net connections to see patterns/make original thoughts (UCSD INS) Neural electrical activity to develop dominant thoughts (mosaics, fighting for grossly 2 D cortical space) (Calvin, The Cerebral Code, 1996) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Input to a neural network starts with chaos (rapid random signals), then creates emergent order (time-stable patterns), in both artificial and biological nets. Validity testing: Hybrid electronic/lobster neuron nets (UCSD INS) © 2006 Accelerating. org
Evolution vs. Development “The Twin’s Thumbprints” Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Consider two identical twins: Thumbprints Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Brain wiring Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns. Development creates the predictable global patterns. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Channels (Evolution, Systems, and Development) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit The marbles roll around on the landscape (system), each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (“attractors”) at the bottom of each basin. MEST Los Angeles New York compression of interaction creates the attractors. Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Developmental Biogenesis Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Eric Smith, Santa Fe Institute l Potential prebiotic chemical reactions form a vast ‘possibility space’ in the energy landscape. l A subset of these make self-reproducing and self-varying chemical cycles, producing information and permanently modifying the selection environment (“niche construction”). l A series of low energy paths (“channels”) emerge, constraining the landscape. Q: “What was the problem with the prebiotic Earth that was solved by the appearance of life? ” © 2006 Accelerating. org
How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e. g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
How Many Wheels on an Automobile are Developmentally Optimal? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
“Convergent Evolution”: Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid forms as a standard attractor. A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed bipedalism, binocular vision, complex hands with opposable thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios equivalent to modern birds. They were intelligent pack-hunters of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both diurnally and nocturnally. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Evolution and Development: Two Universal Systems Processes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Evolution Development Creativity Chance Randomness Variety/Many Possibilities Uniqueness Uncertainty Accident Bottom-up Divergent Differentiation Discovery Necessity Determinism Unity/One Constraints Sameness Predictability Design (self-organized or other) Top-Down Convergent Integration Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The deepest question is when, where, and how they interrelate. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Evo vs. Devo Political Polarities: Innovation vs. Sustainability Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism). © 2006 Accelerating. org
Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs Development A Hierarchy of Technoeconomic Development? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Biological Learning Stages Self-transcendence (Religion & Death) Technological Learning Stages Biotranscension Society Valuecosm IT Society / Self-expression / Self-identity / Property Metaverse IT Society Network IT Society Manufacturing Society Agricultural Society Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Services/Network/Information Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”) Network 1. 0 “Mc. Jobs” & Service 65% of Jobs, 2000’s Network 2. 0 New Middle Class 40% of Jobs, 2030’s Network 3. 0 Consolidation Again 15% of Jobs, 2060’s Products/Manufacturing Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”) Manufacturing 1. 0 Exploitive Jobs 50% of Jobs, 1900’s Manufacturing 2. 0 New Middle Class 35% of Jobs, 1950’s Manufacturing 3. 0 Offshoring/Globalizing 14% of Jobs, 2000’s Resources/Agricultural Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Agriculture 1. 0 Subsistence Jobs 80% of Jobs, 1820’s Agriculture 2. 0 Family Farms 50% of Jobs, 1920’s Agriculture 3. 0 Corporate Farms 2% of Jobs, 1990’s See also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03 © 2006 Accelerating. org
Metaverse/Attention Economy: The ICT- and CI-Enabled Services Sector Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit An Emerging Fourth Global Economic Sector l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto US ICT sector was 8% of GDP in 1998, 11% in 2001, 14% in 2005. OECD ICT trade, GDP share, and employment grow 4 -10% a year. Service Sector is not yet Metaverse & CI-enabled, but after 2015, it will be. © 2006 Accelerating. org
The Framework Challenge Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Building Evo Devo Theory in an “Evolutionist vs. Creationist” World Finding globally predictable developmental attractors in a world of locally unpredictable evolutionary systems. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Act II: The Picture Acceleration Mechanics, Immune Systems, IA and AI
Acceleration Mechanics: Exp. Growth, S, D & J Curves, Punk Eek, and Phase Change Singularities The Anatomy of Accelerating Change
The “S” Curve (Phases BG-MS) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (Looks like a stretched “S”. Think “Saturation”. ) Example: Logistic Population Growth © 2006 Accelerating. org
A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit How S Curves Get Old Resource limits in a niche Material Energetic Spatial Temporal Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing No Known or Historic Limits to Computation Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time © 2006 Accelerating. org
Global Population Saturation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Global Energy Consumption per Capita Saturation (Energy Intensity) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto When per capita GDP reaches: • $3, 000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, • $10, 000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, • $15, 000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, • $25, 000 – economic growth requires little additional energy. Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001 © 2006 Accelerating. org
Terminal Differentiation: Evo Devo in Homo sapiens is a Saturated Substrate Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity – Biologically-inspired computing. Structural mimicry. But 21 st century neuropharm and neurotech won’t accelerate biological complexity – Neural homeostasis fights “top-down” interventions – Terminally differentiated and path dependent. We’ll never biologically “redesign humans” – No time, ability or motivation to do so. – Expect “regression to mean” (elim. disease) instead Cultural immunity to disruptive biointerventions Ingroup ethics, body image, personal identity © 2006 Accelerating. org
The “B” Curve (Phases BGM-SDR) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto (Looks like a lower case b. Think “biology”. ) Example: Impact of Single Individuals © 2006 Accelerating. org
Protected Germline, Disposable Somas, Protected Parameters, Disposable Universes Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Devo (Germline, Parameters) vs. Evo (Bodies, Universes) Protected Germline Cells, Protected Initial Parameters, Disposable Somas (Bodies) Disposable Universes (Kirkwood, 1999) (Smolin, 1999) © 2006 Accelerating. org
The “J” Curve (Phases LEH) DRIVER: Intelligence (Negentropy) Acceleration Studies Foundation ENGINE: MEST Compression A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Hyperbolic. Appearing Phase (Not to Scale) DYNAMIC: Evolutionary Development CONSTRAINT: First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves) Some aspects of post-emergent and post-limit systems can’t be understood or guided by presingularity systems HP = Emergence Singularities EP = Exponential Point (Knee) HP = Hyperbolic Point (Wall) Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Exponential-Appearing Phase with Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Examples: Chaisson’s Phi Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar EP Linear-Appearing Phase © 2006 Accelerating. org
World Economic Performance Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A. D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Punctuated Equilibrium in Biology, Economics, Politics, Technology… Acceleration Studies Foundation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) l A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Evo or Devo) 80% Equilibrium (Evo or Devo) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More © 2006 Accelerating. org
Bimodal Distribution: Two Stories of the Future Acceleration Studies Foundation “Never have so many known so little about so much (of our technological world). ” – James Burke World Knowledge A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Educational Percentile “Never have so few known (and taken) so much, and so many known (and had) so little. ” – Various Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Immune Systems: Universal, Biological, and Technological A Hidden Protector of Accelerating Change
Networks Breed Immunity Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003 Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003 © 2006 Accelerating. org
Network Economy 1. 0 Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America as of 2003, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column? Remittances (From Guest Workers in U. S. and Canada) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G 8, USAID) © 2006 Accelerating. org
Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future. ” Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000). © 2006 Accelerating. org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap: Our New Global Defense Paradigm Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto The Core Countries vs the Technologically, Culturally, and Economically Disconnected Gap Countries, which together form a socio-computational “Ozone Hole. ” © 2006 Accelerating. org
Humbot: The Sputnik (Robotic High Ground) of our Global Network Society Acceleration Studies Foundation Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Sputnik (1957) Humbot 0. 1 (2005) Humbot 1. 0 (2030) U. S. -Surpassing Space/Defense Tech A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit U. S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech Q: Will the U. S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1. 0? This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Accelerating Public Transparency: Privacy vs. Anonymity Acceleration Studies Foundation Wearcam. org’s first gen ‘sousveillance’ systems A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit David Brin’s “Panopticon” The Transparent Society, 1998 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency © 2006 Accelerating. org
Visual Transparency: Speed Cameras, Camera Traps and Mesh Networks Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Red light camera (Beaverton, OR) Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Woods. Watcher, $285 We can buy $200 surveillance cameras at Wal-Mart (2005). When are we going to see $20 camera traps for personal property? When in developing nations? Asiatic Cheetas (Iran, 2005) Rare and previously thought extinct animals are being discovered. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Digital Transparency: Gmail, Lifelogs/Glogs Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Gmail (2004) preserves every email we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it. Nokia’s Lifeblog (2004) (photos, movie clips, text messages, notes), Sense. Cam, What Was I Thinking, and My. Life. Bits (2003) are early examples of “lifelogs, ” (aka Cyborglogs or ‘glogs’), systems for recording, auto-archiving and autoindexing all life experience. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. All this storage, processing, and bandwidth makes us networkable in ways we never dreamed. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and all this data begins turning into wisdom. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Tomorrow’s Fastspace: User-Modified 3 D Persistent Worlds Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Global Collaboration and Coexperience Environments Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others Streaming video coming 2007. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Future Salon in Second Life Synthetic Worlds, 2005 © 2006 Accelerating. org
Offensive to Defensive Asset Conversion: Convergent Technology in a Network Society Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Analog FDR mandated 1958 (5 parameters) Tape CVR mandated 1965 (last 30 mins) Solid state FDR 1990, CVR 1995 (last 2 hours) Next Gen: Video recording. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Networked Transparent Weapons (NTWs) convert security systems from intrinsically offensive intrinsically defensive assets. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Intelligence Amplification (IA) and Autonomous Intelligence (AI): From Writing to the Digital Twin, or from the Plow to the Self-Repairing Robot Collective Bio-Technological Development
The IA-AI Convergence of ‘Metahumanity, ’ a Human-Machine Superorganism Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, ants, and other social animals are parts of “superorganisms. ” Increasingly, they can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Their developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994 © 2006 Accelerating. org
Coevolutionary Ideal: Choosing “Plural Positive” Futures Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Pluralistic Positive-Sum Differentiated “Both/And” versus Examples: Calculator Use AND Computer/TV Use AND Metaverse Use AND Automated Cars AND Digital Twins AND Plutocratic Zero-Sum Homogeneous “Either/Or” Math Skills Social/Study Skills Reading Skills Driving Skills Self-Empowerment © 2006 Accelerating. org
Understanding Process Automation Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend, not the arms we bend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “ 7/8 comes from technical progress. ” Human contribution (20%? ) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound © 2006 Accelerating. org
The Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015 Developmental Attractor Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Codebreaking follows a logistic curve. Collective NLP may as well. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Date Avg. Query Platform 1998 1. 3 words Altavista 2005 2. 6 words Google 2012 5. 2 words Google. Help 20132019 10. 4 words Average spoken human-to-human sentence length is 11 words. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Why Will We Want to Use An Avatar/Agent Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a more efficient communication modality. Ananova, 2002 Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 © 2006 Accelerating. org
Post 2015: The Symbiotic Age Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit A Coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: l A time when computers “speak our language. ” l A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. l A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. l A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes. ” Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Personality Capture Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic. ” (Brian Arthur, SFI) © 2006 Accelerating. org
Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine. ” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children. ” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “ 50% her. ” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “ 80% him. ” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto We wouldn’t have it any other way. Greg Panos (and Mother) Persona. Foundation. org © 2006 Accelerating. org
Valuecosm 2040: Our Plural-Positive Political Future Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto l Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2040’s Recording and Publishing DT Preferences Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) Early Examples: Social Network Media © 2006 Accelerating. org
The Picture Challenge Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Getting Acceleration and Development Studies (ADS) Funded and Used Globally There are components (operations research, network theory, roadmapping), but no formal programs anywhere. © 2006 Accelerating. org
Act III: The Painter Living With Forces and Choices in an Accelerating World
We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit “We need a pragmatic optimism, a cando, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo. ” ― David Brin Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Three Types of Foresight Studies: Futures, Development, and Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Futures Studies (Evolutionary Possibility) – “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives) Development Studies – “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase changes) Acceleration Studies – “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous) Each is seeing a resurgence of interest in today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
Wikipedia breeds Futurepedia: ASF’s Vision for the Future of Foresight Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto For Every Major Subject Area: Prediction Markets, Delphi, Polling Schools of Thought (So. T) and Beyond… © 2006 Accelerating. org
Where are the U. S. College Courses in Foresight Development? Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit l l l Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Tamkang University 25, 000 undergrads Top-ranked private university in Taiwan Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995. Why not here? © 2006 Accelerating. org
The Painter Challenge Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto Waking Up to the Accelerating ‘Promise and Peril’ Ahead We all face the choice of becoming acceleration aware (“accelaware”). Or not. Future Shock or Future Shaping. © 2006 Accelerating. org
A Closing Visual: Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not. Acceleration Studies Foundation A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating. org
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