SEARCH Observing Change Accomplishments Activities Emerging Scientific

SEARCH Observing Change: Accomplishments & Activities, Emerging Scientific Needs, and Priorities for Coming Years • OCP Overview • Activities: AON implementation, coordination & gaps; UCP/RCP linkages; international coordination • Scientific needs: Implementation & gaps; coordination & synthesis; data archival & dissemination; partnering with agencies (stakeholder relevance) • Priorities for next years

SEARCH Observing Change Panel Charge: (i) Work with the broader scientific community to develop and at opportune intervals update SEARCH Arctic Observing Network (AON) Implementation documents, (ii) jointly with UCP & RCP oversee implementation of AON by (a) identifying unexplored or undeveloped synergies between individual AON projects and other ongoing national and international observation programs, (b) identifying gaps in the observation network relative to the goals of the SEARCH program, (c) outlining potential partnerships with other agency programs relevant to the SEARCH AON effort, (d) helping ensure a broader legacy of the AON that extends beyond IPY; (iii) provide feedback and advice as sought by the SEARCH SSC, Data Working Group, UCP, and RCP on relevant aspects of the science and methodology of observing change in the Arctic environment (iv) provide a link between the SEARCH observational programs and the broader scientific community to ensure flow of information and promote scientific exchange, promote international collaboration and coordination of Arctic observing system activities with complementary programs by colleagues in other countries. Members: Carin Ashjian (Biol. Oceanography), Hajo Eicken (Chair, Sea Ice), Larry Hinzman (Hydrology), George Kling (Terr. Biogeochemistry, now SSC Member), Craig Lee (Phys. Oceanogr. ), Maribeth Murray (Human Dimensions), Taneil Uttal (Atmosph. Science, NOAA)

Map of Arctic observing activities ARMAP, 2007

Physical & Chemical Oceanography; Sea Ice Bering Strait Aerial Hydrographic Surveys North Pole Environmental Observatory Seasonal Ice Zone Ps IT Beaufort Gyre Observatory & Deepest Waters Ice-Tethered Profilers & Ice Dynamics and Weather Buoys Davis Strait Switchyard & Seasonal Ice Zone M. Jeffries (NSF)

Map of AON activities (CADIS)

Existing AON projects: Arcticsystem perspective Is our perspective on the Arctic system changing? Atmospheric forcing & variability: Strato. Tropo. Obs, Cloud. Net, Eureka. Lidar, Snow/Surface Chem (OASIS), Surf. Obs Graphic from Overpeck et al. (2005) Ber. Str, Switchy, BG, NPEO, Air. O, Davis. Str, NOAA Chukchi IABP, SIZONet, Davis. Str, NPEO US-RUS PFO, CALM Flag. Obs, ITEX, LTERs Snow. Net, Summit, Runoff Network, Surf. Obs Summit Data management: CADIS, ELOKA (Paleo-obs. : Norse Societies) HDq, Ber Comm Obs, ELOKA HDq

Addressing SEARCH Science Questions: Gaps How are Priority 1 or other top priority questions (if <1) addressed through AON Projects? 1. Is the arctic system moving to a new state? A/B 2. To what extent is the arctic system predictable (i. e. , what are the potential accuracies and/or uncertainties in predictions of relevant arctic variables over different timescales)? A/B 3. To what extent can recent and ongoing climate changes in the Arctic be attributed to anthropogenic forcing, rather than to natural modes of variability? A/B (assuming 2 k BP paleo-reconstruction underway) 4. What is the direction and relative importance of system feedbacks? C 5. How are terrestrial and marine ecosystems and ecosystem services (i. e. , processes by which the environment produces resources that support human life) affected by environmental change and its interaction with human activities? C (terr. ) F (marine) 6. How do cultural and socioeconomic systems interact with arctic environmental change? A/C 7. What are the most consequential links between the arctic and the earth systems? A (heat/salt budget) D (glacial mass balance)

Addressing SEARCH Science Questions: Gaps 8. Data management: A/B (data management at project level with central exchange) 9. Education and outreach: through supported IPY activities

4. What is importance of feedbacks? • Characterize permafrost and hydrological controls of vegetation change and quantify resulting impact on freshwater fluxes and biogeochemistry: Initial observation programs to be put in place, what else is needed? Need for linkage between observations and modeling, further progress needed [further input needed] D+

AON PI Meeting (March 2007): Outcomes • Networked, established links, coordinated activities and prepared for cross-system collaboration • Stocktaking: - AON coverage very good, with few gaps (marine productivity, paleoclimate (but: Y 2 K program), meteorology, few geographic gaps - need to consider coverage within Russia as part of int’l coordination; coastal zone covered? Biodiversity/large animals? To be discussed w/in Panels) - for long-term observations currently lacking the balance between NSF-support and long-term sustaining agencies during the transition into “operational” mode - international coordination needs to be addressed at project-, program- and agency level - role of satellite remote sensing and NASA’s contribution to AON need to be reaffirmed

AON PI Meeting: Outcomes • Cyberinfrastructure: - CADIS and other data-related projects are in a good spot to implement proven approaches and help put down the foundation of the AON CI - role of CI has been clarified and potential contribution outlined - numerous models for success and failure exist and need to be considered as AON grows and matures - potential for CI to help guide system design needs further thought

Scientific needs: Implementation gaps and areas of need • Ecosystem services (marine biogeochemistry & production) • Paleo-perspectives (Y 2 K program provides limited set of data) • Terrestrial ice • Siberian shelves • Bering Sea: Coordination w/ BEST needed • Socio-economic components of observing system • Stakeholder-relevant data acquisition and dissemination (goal of HDq, more efforts needed? ) • How can these gaps & needs be addressed?

International coordination • SEARCH for DAMOCLES: Information exchange and joint planning; good coordination at project level • Sustained Arctic Observing Network: White paper on gaps and focal areas; coordination with broader *OOS and comparable efforts

Scientific needs: Data archival, dissemination & digestion • Currently resides at project level w/ information “exchange” (CADIS, ELOKA) • Coordination of efforts? SEARCH Data Working Group and OCP roles? Potential contribution by industry? • Mandate of stakeholder relevance: Guidance from RCP (and UCP) and agencies needed; emerging information needs and confluence of agency and scientific interests (e. g. : USCG, polar bear status etc. )

Recent NY Times Headlines: • New Task for Coast Guard in Arctic’s warming Seas • Russian Scientists say the Arctic is theirs • From the depths of the Arctic, gas to heat homes in the US • Grim outlook for polar bears • Arctic melt unnerves the experts Stroeve et al. , 2007

Priorities for coming years • What is role of SEARCH in regards to implementation & evolution of an Arctic Observing System (and how does this relate to AON)? • Integration of existing Arctic observing system components: scientific level, agency level, international level: Role of SEARCH as integrator? • (Re? )Defining and building partnerships with agencies • Need for integrating activities that feed back into observing system design (importance of model simulations in informing observing strategies) • Role of Cyberinfrastructure in data archival and dissemination: Open question

1. Is the arctic system moving to a new state? • Construct hi-resolution paleoclimate network: Partially underway, coordination needed • Enhance/stabilize distribution & continuity of upper-air/surface climate/weather obs networks, incl. integration of cryo/ocean/hydro variables: Underway, integration lagging • Initiate one intensive “flagship” site on land • Apply new technology, modeling & remote sens’g to extrapolate field measurements to gridded data sets: ? [Input needed] • Integrated observations of socio-econ. indicators of human subsystems that feed back into phys/biol. systems: biol. data avail. ? • Implement automated, coincident monitoring in ocean and sea ice of physical, chemical, biological variables over annual cycle at critical locations: Lacking for biological variables • Pan-arctic sea-ice/snow mass budget from remote sensing, buoys and surveys: Remote sensing potentially a concern • Water budget in flagship watersheds, incl. glaciers and ice sheet: Lagging in glaciers? B B- A [? ] BA [F] B+ B

2. To what extent is system predictable? • Repeat hydrographic sections across major frontal features of Arctic AOcean, relying on international collaboration & remote sensing: Coordination underway, remote sensing less clear • Determine spatio-temporal patterns of permafrost degradation, B glacier ablation and water resources: Lagging for glaciers [? ]

3. To what extent is change anthropogenic? • Construct decadal resolution multiproxy records from earlier warm periods (Holocene thermal max’m and last interglacial): 2 k Synthesis project on lake paleoclimate data [Input needed] • Coordinate atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observation efforts to significantly enhance understanding of regional differences: Very good coverage in space and time, with the exception of Siberian Arctic [update on ocean status needed from Damocles] [? ] A-

5. How are ecosystem services affected? • Determine abundance and distribution of marine animals and C[? ] communities: No efforts in US through AON (retrosp. analysis through HDq); need for coordination with federal agencies and comanagement administrations, in particular NOAA (and NPRB/BEST? ) [input needed] • Work with stakeholders and resource managers to implement local C monitoring networks: Potential for progress, unclear what is underway in US (Bering Network, some foundation work through HDq); other countries (such as Canada) have made significant progress [input needed]

6. How do cultural and socio-economic systems interact with Arctic environmental change? • Establish data outlets for near-real time observations relevant to C+ stakeholders: Currently only very limited, but potential and promising approaches exist, needs to be discussed by AON groups and in partnership with others that are leading such efforts • Develop pan-arctic database of key human dimensions indicators of A population, employment and subsistence: Baseline completed for indigenous populations (outside of Russia) with Survey of Living Conditions in Arctic (SLICA), cf. www. arcticlivingconditions. org, but updates and more detail needed

7. What are the most consequential links between the Arctic and Earth systems? • Enhance observations of heat, salt and volume fluxes through A+ straits connecting Arctic Ocean with lower latitudes: Excellent progress and coverage for IPY [Canadian Archipelago complete? ] • Integrate glacier and ice sheet mass balance measurements with climate dynamics observations: With glacier measurements D[? ] lagging, not clear how much progress possible [input needed] • Monitor perceptions of temperate zone residents of Arctic change and importance: While no monitoring underway [? ], at onset of A IPY public awareness appears to be at all-time high

8. Data management strategy • Form SEARCH Data Management Advisory group: Is in place and highly active (D. Mc. Guire, Chair) • Develop SEARCH data policy & management plan: Is in the works with draft plan in circulation, needs to be run by AON PIs and international partners (such as Damocles), in particular in regards to data format requirements etc. ; CADIS/ELOKA can provide linkage • Develop SEARCH data inventory: Current status of data archival and dissemination within Arctic community is under discussion (workshop in first week of April needs input from AON community!) and in flux; AON PIs and CADIS/ELOKA projects need to take active role in further discussion and planning (Arctic. RIMS? ) • Establish data management requirements for SEARCH investigators: De facto in place through RFP requirements, need to be harmonized with other activities underway • Create a central SEARCH data and information coordination service: CADIS assumes this role for AON, further evolution to be A+ A B- B- B+

9. Education and outreach • Develop E&O sections and activities on SEARCH website: Potential [? ] for effective E&O is great with IPY projects funded and public interest high [further input needed on what has been done specifically] • Develop comprehensive guide with information on ways in which [? ] individual SEARCH researchers & projects can participate in E&O efforts: [input needed]

AON PI Meeting: Action items • • • Integration of data management activities Clarify oversight of data management activities Creating central exchange (SPO web pages) for observation activities (incl. links to relevant sites); how do projects tie into international effort? Describe the scope of AON Create AON newsletter (incl other efforts) AON listserver SEARCH project catalog to be put online (ARCUS) and to be completed Meeting summary (& recommendations? ) with input from discussion leaders Use cases (a dozen) to be provided by AON PIs to CI team (through template) CI team provides examples (good & bad) and more information on specifics of CI (hajo. eicken@gi. alaska. edu; helen@arcus. org)

Existing components of an Arctic observing system: Broad & incomplete survey • WMO weather stations, radiation & climate variable monitoring stations, radiosonde programs etc. • River gauging stations • Terrestrial biogeochemical stations & flagship observatories (Toolik, Barrow, Cherskiy, Zackenberg, Svalbard, Abisko etc. ) • Circum-Arctic Active Layer Monitoring & Permafrost sites • Glacier & ice-sheet monitoring sites • International Arctic Ocean Buoy Program • North Pole Station Observatory, Damocles hydrographic surveys, passageway moorings (Bering, Fram, Nares Straits), etc. • Satellite monitoring of atmosphere, ice cover and surface ocean • Coastal observatories (sea ice, ocean, coastal dynamics, ecology etc. )

Not shown are international projects such as DAMOCLES, CFL and others Ber Comm Obs Snownet Bering. Str SIZONet Chuk. O BGO Hydro. Netw, CALM, Perma. Obs ITEX, , Flagship Cloud. Net Davis Str Obs IABP NPEO Aer. O Switchy Summit Rough sketch of AON geographic coverage

AON PI Meeting: Recommendations • Review of first year of measurements within a broader group of observation projects (interagency level) - early 2008 • Interagency coordination through IARPC and IPMC; example: Bering Sea region: Coordination with NPRB, NOAA, BEST, AK Ocean Observing System and other programs needs to be addressed • International coordination of activities (e. g. , consensus position on link to *OOS efforts? )

Scientific needs: Exchange w/ UCP & RCP • Is the Arctic system moving to a new state? Observations can be plotted in phase space, but what is our understanding of “state”, “new” and “move”? • Reanalysis & paleodata provide framework for examination of observed trajectories? • Role of SEARCH as an integrator