SEAN-CC Regional Training Workshop: Building Capacity on Access to Funds for Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives Climate change adaptation priorities in SEA countries Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change Coordinator Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ROAP) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Climate Change: reading the signs - temperature § Global mean temperature has increased 0. 76 o. C during. 1906 -2005 § The average temperature in Southeast Asia has increased 0. 1– 0. 3°C per decade over the last 50 years § Increase in temperature varies by countries – highest change observed in Singapore Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change: reading the signs – precipitation § Indonesia: decrease in annual rainfall during recent decades in some areas § Philippines: increase in annual rainfall and in the number of rainy days § Singapore: decrease in annual rainfall in the past three decades § Thailand: decrease annual rainfall for the last five decades § Viet Nam: decrease in monthly rainfall in July-August and Precipitation in Southeast Asia increase in September to trended downward from 1960 November to 2000. Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change: reading the signs – sea level rise § Sea level has risen at the rate 1. 8 mm/year since 1961 and 3. 1 mm/year since 1993. § IPCC estimated sea levels may rise 18 cm - 59 cm in the coming. century. § The Greenland ice sheet, which could raise sea levels by 6 m if it melted away, is currently losing more than 100 cubic km a yearfaster than can be explained by natural melting. § In SEA, sea levels have risen 1– 3 millimeters per year and projected to rise by 70 cm by 2100
Climate Change: reading the signs – extreme events Extreme Events Key Trends Heat waves Increase in hot days and warm nights, and decrease in cold days and nights between 1961 and 1998 Intense rains and floods Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Viet Nam; landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and floods in Cambodia in 2000, 2011 Droughts normally associated with El Niño years in Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam; droughts in 1997 and 1998 causing massive crop failures and water shortages as well as forest fires in various parts of Indonesia, Lao PDR, and Philippines Typhoons On average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippine, about eight or nine making landfall each year; an average increase of 4. 2 in the frequency of cyclones entering the Philippine during the period 1990— 2003 Source: IPCC, 2007
Climate Change: reading the signs – projection of temperature § Global mean temperature projected to be increased. by 1. 8 to 5. 4°C by 2100 § The mean surface air temperature in SEA would increase between 0. 75– 0. 87°C by 2039, 1. 32– 2. 01°C by 2069, and 1. 96– 3. 77°C by 2100 (IPCC, 2007) Source: IPCC, 2007
Reading the signs – projection of temperature § Indonesia: increase 2. 1°C and 3. 4°C by 2100 under the B 2 and A 2 scenarios, respectively. § Philippines: increase of 1. 2– 3. 9°C by 2080, . using all the IPCC emission scenarios. § Singapore: similar to the projected global mean temperature rise of 2. 5°C with a range of 1. 7– 4. 4°C. § Thailand: increase 2– 4°C by the end of this century § Viet Nam: increase in temperature of 2– 4°C by 2100 § Cambodia: increase in mean annual temperatures of 0. 3 -0. 6°C by 2025, 0. 7 -2. 7°C by the 2060 s and of 1. 4 -4. 3 °C by the 2090 s
Reading the signs – projection of temperature . Source: WB, 2013
4 o. C Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia Agriculture § Yields of cereals crops could decrease by up to 5% across South. East Asia (best-case scenario) and reduction in yield may be as much as 30% or higher. Any reduction in rice yield could be very significant for large rice producers such as Indonesia, Thailand Vietnam. Water Availability § Climate change may affect the Southeast Asian monsoon and the seasonal pattern of rainfall. Incidence of drought will increase but this does not mean decrease of average annual amount of rainfall.
4 o. C Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia Sea Level Rise § Highly populated and low-lying delta areas along the Southeast. Asian coast are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise such as Bangkok Manila, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City. Marine Ecosystem § Could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification and could have a significant impact on fisheries. § Many communities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and the Philippines rely on fisheries for their income
4 o. C Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia Health § More. incidences of heat-related illness, including heat stress, strokes and cardiovascular disorders. City populations (such as in Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok) may be particularly at risk from rising temperatures. § Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever may change in geographical spread, and the duration of the transmission seasons could lengthen.
4 o. C Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia Mekong Delta § The global average sea-level could rise by up to 80 cm by the end. of the century and such sea-level rises could submerge the lowest parts of the delta § It could also increase threat of saline intrusion and storm surge damage to rice crops across the region.
Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia . Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia (2000) . Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005) . Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia . Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009
Example of Vulnerability . (a) Myanmar’s overall climate change vulnerability index (taking into account areas and socio-economic sectors most at risk); and (b) climate change vulnerability index for Myanmar considering population density.
Example of Vulnerability .
SEA Countries Responses § Least Developed Countries: Formulated National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). § National Communication: All SEA Countries, except Brunei Darussalam § Technology Need Assessment: Most SEA Countries § Emergence of new institution: Setting up national institution at higher level to address climate change.
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Agriculture: § Promotion of locally relevant technologies, climate-resilient rice. crop varieties, crop diversification, improvement of technologies and ex/in-situ conservation of plant genetic resources - rural and subsistence farmers (Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand) § Development and improvement of small-scale aquaculture ponds, promotion of household integrated farming, community irrigation systems, soil conservation (Cambodia) § Promote secondary professions to improve the livelihoods of farmers affected by climate change induced natural disasters (Lao PDR)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Agriculture: § Development of milkfish farming technology, cultivation. engineering of beef cattle (Indonesia) § Precision farming technology (Thailand) § Plant genetics/plant breeding, shifting from rice to upland grains, and shifting from triple cropping to double cropping and a shrimp/fish/poultry crop (Vietnam) § Precision water management and drainage to ensure sufficient water availability for both agriculture and other uses, precision farming technology (Malaysia, Thailand)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Agriculture: § CC resilience of agriculture and fisheries production and. distribution systems, and communities (Philippines) § Climate-sensitive agriculture and fisheries policies, plans and programs formulated. § Enhanced capacity for CCA and DRR of government, farming and fishing communities and industry.
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Water Resources: § Constructing small-scale water reservoir (flood control and increasing water supplies for local communities) (Myanmar, Cambodia) § Rehabilitation/construction/improvement of a multiple-use reservoir, dam, flood protection dikes, waterways, drainage and water gates (Cambodia, Singapore, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Vietnam) § Rainwater harvesting, wells for domestic water supply, household water treatment and safe storage (Cambodia, Vietnam) § Enabling policy, knowledge and capacity for IWRM, water supply and demand management of water improved (Philippines, Malaysia)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Water Resources: § Awareness raising on water and water resource management, strengthen institutional and human resource capacities related to water and water resource management (Lao PDR) § Water resources model - Groundwater flow modeling with MODFLOW and related programs (Indonesia) § Networking (via pipes or canals) and management of infrastructures (Malaysia)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Forest: § Reforestation in degraded/sensitive forest areas, degraded watershed areas for ecosystem resilience and rural livelihoods (Myanmar) § Continue the slash and burn eradication programme and permanent job creation program (Lao PDR) § Strengthen capacity of village forestry volunteers in forest planting, caring and management techniques as well as the use of village forests (Lao PDR) § Plant science/plant genetics and agroforestry
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Biodiversity: § Buffering marine habitats and sustaining fish populations through community-based MPA management and ecosystem sensitive fishery practices (Myanmar) § Mainstreaming ecosystem-based climate change adaptation for buffering rural communities into policy, planning and relevant projects (Myanmar) § Management and conservation of protected areas and key biodiversity areas (Philippines) § Capacity for integrated ecosystem-based management approach in protected areas and key biodiversity areas (Philippines)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Coastal Zone: § Adaptation to climate change through Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) (Myanmar, Vietnam) § Mangrove reforestation, restoration for resilient ecosystems and rural livelihoods (Myanmar, Cambodia) § Community and household water supply in coastal provinces (Cambodia) § Rehabilitation of multiple-use canals, coastal protection infrastructure, reclamation (Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam)
Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies § Cross Cutting - Early Warning System: § Improving weather observation capacity - weather radar system (Myanmar, Lao PDR) § Developing (flood and drought) early warning system - local communities (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam) § Vegetation planting for flood and windstorm protection (Cambodia) § Strengthening of community disaster preparedness and response capacity (Cambodia) § Strengthen the capacity of the National Disaster Management Committees (Lao PDR)
Multiple sector and issues: responses inter-linkage Environmental Sustainability sustaining the provision of ecosystem services (provision of food water, fuel, climate regulation) Climate Change (temperature rise; variation in rainfall and precipitation; changes in sea level; salinity intrusion) Alam, M. , 2011 Disaster Risk Reduction (natural e. g. flood, drought, cyclone and storm surges, earthquake etc; man-made e. g. oil spillage, nuclear etc. ) • Ecosystem based adaptation (coastal, mountain, dry land, river basin); • Reduction of emission from deforestation and forest degradation; • Management of marine ecosystem (blue carbon) • Multi-hazard and risk mapping; • Local level capacity building for disaster preparedness and environmental management • Improvement of systematic observation and monitoring; • Improve local level plan, design and implementation; • Information and communication; • Integrated coastal zone management; • Integrated watershed management; • Conservation, protection and management of ecosystems and services. • Improvement of early warning systems; • Improvement of modeling and forecasting of short-term and longterm phenomenon; • Development of drought, flood, salinity resilient crop variety
Adaptation: Estimated costs per sector Study UNFCCC (2007) Parry et al (2009) World Bank (2010)a Agriculture, forestry, fisheries $7 $7 $6 Water resources $9 Much higher than other two studies $11 Human health $5 At least $10 $3 Coastal zones $5 $10 $29 Infrastructure $22 -41 $65 -154 $29 Extreme events $2 $2 $7 Fisheries $2 $2 $2 Ecosystems $2 $33 -40 a $2 $54 -73 >$129 -225 $80 -90 b Total
Adaptation: Distribution Source: Climate Funds Update 2012
THANK YOU ! For more information: Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change Coordinator United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Email: mozaharul. alam@unep. org Web: www. unep. org/climatechange
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