SCR 1284 and its implications Colin Rowat co-ordinator

SCR 1284 and its implications Colin Rowat, co-ordinator Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq 14 February 2000 Liberation & CLESIP meeting 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

About CASI n n a registered society at the University of Cambridge; narrow humanitarian mandate: u exclusively concerned with the humanitarian consequences of sanctions on Iraq; n n does not support Saddam Hussein's regime; does not take a position on: u military sanctions on Iraq; u US/UK bombing of Iraq. 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

Overview n n Context of SCR 1284 u Preamble u A. Unmovic u B. Kuwaiti claims u C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF u D. Sanctions’ suspension n Questions Conclusions n 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

Context: search for consensus? n US/UK bombing (12/98): u no UN authorisation, dubious motives u Unscom not allowed back to Iraq n Panel reports commissioned (1/99) u Humanitarian n report: Annex II of S/1999/356 (30/3/99) French proposal (13/1/99) + UK/Dutch proposal 17/12/99 SCR 1284 passed with 4 abstentions (intellectual context: these sanctions have failed) 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

SCR 1284: Preamble n commitment to, among other things: u "establishing in the Middle East a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery and the objective of a global ban on chemical weapons” u "sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of Kuwait, Iraq and the neighbouring States” n expressed since SCR 687 (3/4/91) but largely ignored 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

SCR 1284: A. Unmovic n Unmovic = Unscom + disarmament panel recommendations, “as appropriate” u greater independence from Member States (“International Civil Servants subject to Article 100” of UN Charter) n gives Unmovic up to 135 days to return to Iraq u behind schedule (Blix’s appointment) u approving “organizational plan” may be easy u getting into Iraq probably harder 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

SCR 1284: B. Kuwaiti claims n re-iterates Iraqi responsibility to return Kuwaiti and third country property and nationals u Kuwait claims 605 missing persons cases still open u Iraq continues to refuse to co-operate with the “Tripartite Commission” established to address these concerns 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

SCR 1284: C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF n Caveat: “Regardless of the improvements that might be brought about in the implementation of the current humanitarian programme … the magnitude of the humanitarian needs is such that they cannot be met within the context of the parameters set forth in resolution 986 (1995) and … resolution 1153 (1998). ” [Humanitarian Panel Report] 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

Selected measures in section C 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

SCR 1284: D. Sanctions’ suspension n n “intention” to suspend sanctions if Iraq co-operates “in all respects” for 120 days “fundamental objective” of the suspension is “improving the humanitarian situation in Iraq” suspensions “subject to the elaboration of effective financial and other operational measures” two fold uncertainty: u co-operate “in all respects” on undefined work plan u what sort of suspensions? 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

Questions n will Iraq co-operate? u France, China and Russia abstained u regime more stable than in 1991 u 1284 offers regime few carrots but asks it to trust US n will Iraq be back in the news in 2000? u getting Unmovic in risks tension u U. S. election year: avoid or play tough? n humanitarian consequences? u little 14/2/00 promise of more money v. lots already in account Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq

Conclusions n humanitarian possibilities real but less than Panel’s u does the FCO have projections for expected humanitarian outcomes of 1284. If not, unclear that 1284 can be regarded as a serious humanitarian initiative. n n sanctions’ suspension link to Go. I co-operation reaffirms failed 1991 formula failure to take trust building steps (i. e. can Go. I trust US? ) likely to hinder implementation 14/2/00 Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq