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Science Committee Presentation to NAC Plenary February 5, 2009 Jack Burns Brad Jolliff Mark Science Committee Presentation to NAC Plenary February 5, 2009 Jack Burns Brad Jolliff Mark Robinson Byron Tapley Michael Turner Charles Kennel 1

Hubble Space Telescope Directly Observes Planet Orbiting Fomalhaut First visible-light snapshot of a planet Hubble Space Telescope Directly Observes Planet Orbiting Fomalhaut First visible-light snapshot of a planet orbiting another star. Fomalhaut b orbits the bright southern star Fomalhaut, located 25 lightyears away in the constellation Piscis Australis (the Southern Fish). 2

The Pulsing Sky Pulses at 1/10 th true rate 3 The Pulsing Sky Pulses at 1/10 th true rate 3

Methane on Mars Strong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003 Mumma, Methane on Mars Strong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003 Mumma, M. J. , et al. , Science, Jan. 15, 2009 • Methane varies with location, source strength rivals terrestrial gas seeps. • Methane and water are sometimes correlated, but not always so. • Lifetime of methane is <4 years o o R 1 &R 0 methane lines are detected and mixing ratios vary from <3 ppbv – 60 ppbv Methane lifetime from photochemical destruction is ~350 years Need new model for its destruction, perhaps oxidants on airborne dust Is methane produced biologically or geologically? Either way, Mars must be active today! 4

MESSENGER 2 nd Mercury Flyby True Color Enhanced Color 5 MESSENGER 2 nd Mercury Flyby True Color Enhanced Color 5

THEMIS Satellites Discover What Triggers Eruptions of the Northern Lights What causes the shimmering, THEMIS Satellites Discover What Triggers Eruptions of the Northern Lights What causes the shimmering, ethereal Northern Lights to suddenly brighten and dance in a spectacular burst of colorful light and rapid movement? The culprit turns out to be magnetic reconnection, a common process that occurs throughout the universe when stressed magnetic field lines suddenly "snap" to a new shape, like a rubber band that's been stretched too far. Scientists directly observe the beginning of substorms using five THEMIS satellites and a network of 20 ground observatories located throughout Canada and Alaska. 6

NASA-Observed Polar Region Changes • Reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Extent - Dramatic reduction NASA-Observed Polar Region Changes • Reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Extent - Dramatic reduction in 2007 followed by little recovery in 2008 measured by Japanese AMSR-E instrument on board the NASA Aqua Satellite and the US Air Force SSM/I on board the DMSP satellite - Julienne C. Stroeve (Univ. Colorado & NSIDC) • Reduction in Ice Mass in Greenland - Seasonal changes and overall trend in ice mass associated with winter precipitation and summer melting measured from the US-German GRACE satellite pair. The mass loss corresponds to about 50 mm/century of sea level rise - Scott B. Luthcke (Goddard Space Flight Center) • Ice Mass Loss in Antarctica - Accelerating ice mass loss data observed in West Antarctica between 1974 and 2007, using LANDSAT, RADARSAT, ERS-1 and -2, and PALSAR data - Eric Rignot (JPL and UC Irvine) 7

Science Committee Agenda Topics • SMD Overview with Ed Weiler • Mars Science Laboratory Science Committee Agenda Topics • SMD Overview with Ed Weiler • Mars Science Laboratory rescheduling impacts and options • Review of large mission cost growth • Planning a lessons learned task group on mission cost estimation • Planetary Protection (joint with Exploration Committee) • Science Subcommittee reports • Status of NRC decadal surveys and other studies • Status of international collaboration in space missions • Results of Earth and Space mission cost comparison study 8

NASA Science Mission Launches (CY 08 -CY 17) NASA Mission on US ELV International NASA Science Mission Launches (CY 08 -CY 17) NASA Mission on US ELV International Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution Reimbursable for NOAA For planning purposes only Joint NASA - International Partner Mission Do. D Mission with Substantial NASA Contribution As of 1/29/09 NASA Mission on STS LRO/LCROSS ESMD mission with SMD participation Ö= Successfully launched to date OCO * = Early science flight Glory SDO WISE ESDS-3 Kepler Venture 1 GLAST SOFIA* GOLD MMS Discovery-13 IBEX HST SM-4 LADEE MAVEN GPM Const New Frontiers OSTM GOES-O NPP Juno LDCM ILN 1/2 Discovery-12 Ö CINDI NOAA-N’ Aquarius MSL RBSP SMAP SMEX-13 TWINS-B Herschel GOES-P Nu. STAR SMEX-12 GPM Core Chandrayaan Planck ST-7 GRAIL LWS SET-1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Venture 3 Ex. EP-M 1 ICESat-II ILN 3/4 EX-2 JWST JDEM EX-1 GOES-S Astro-H GOES-R Venture 2 Exo. Mars Solar Orbiter 2013 9 Mars 2016 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mars Science Laboratory has high science value for Planetary Exploration Mars holds keys to Mars Science Laboratory has high science value for Planetary Exploration Mars holds keys to understanding early solar system processes - whether life existed in early habitable zones - planetary climate change in the first billion years - whether life exists in the subsurface today Critical step toward learning if Mars had an environment capable of supporting microbial life. Will land in a well chosen site with clear evidence for hydrated minerals and evidence of former interaction with water. Investigation will result in a better understanding of whether life could have existed on Mars and, if so, where to look for it in the future. 10

Mars Science Laboratory Update • • • In December, NASA decided to move the Mars Science Laboratory Update • • • In December, NASA decided to move the MSL launch from October 2009 to Oct-Dec 2011 – Motivated by schedule pressures in meeting delivery dates for actuators, avionics; assures time for adequate testing – Avoided substantial new budgetary requirements in FY 2009 – Results in additional MSL cost increase of up to $400 M Budget impacts to be borne primarily by moving funds from future Mars programs – Reduce funds available to begin Mars 2016 mission; explore a joint mission with ESA – Reduce technology development funds for a future Mars Sample Return mission – Other sources within the Planetary Science Division The Science Committee, building on the recommendation of its Planetary Science Subcommittee, endorses the continuation of the MSL project and SMD’s plan to fund the cost of completion – If the cost exceeds the $400 M estimated by NASA, NASA should return to the PSS 11

International Lunar Network (ILN) • Science Definition Team completed study Jan. ‘ 09 • International Lunar Network (ILN) • Science Definition Team completed study Jan. ‘ 09 • First new implementation of landed network science desired by science community for Moon and other planetary bodies • Nine nations engaged in dialog with NASA. – Four U. S. “anchor nodes” • Planning use of Stirling power generation capabilities to achieve required mission longevity • Synthetic resolution tests are needed for ILN scientific objectives to determine optimal network configuration. • Realistic cost estimate needed for U. S. “anchor node” missions before committing further resources. 12

Planetary Protection • Joint Science Committee and Exploration Committee session on Planetary Protection • Planetary Protection • Joint Science Committee and Exploration Committee session on Planetary Protection • Planetary protection (for both Earth and other planetary bodies) has been important to NASA since its founding – International obligations created by 1967 Outer Space Treaty • NASA has traditionally led the way in development of international standards (set by the Committee on Space Research - COSPAR) • NASA has a Planetary Protection Officer located in SMD to assure NASA missions comply with planetary protection requirements • This week’s meeting was the first detailed review of this subject at the level of the NAC Committees; will continue to monitor and bring issues to the NAC as needed 13

Comparison of Earth and Space Mission Costs • Study conducted in response to a Comparison of Earth and Space Mission Costs • Study conducted in response to a 2007 NAC recommendation • Database of 30 recently completed missions (with 162 instruments) • Among the key findings: – Found no correlation between mission cost growth and SMD mission division, acquisition mode, contractor type, Phase B investment or cost reserve. – Cost shows good correlation to a multi-variate instrument Level-of-Difficulty measure – Earth science missions do not show a systemic difference in cost or cost growth compared to other SMD missions 14

Phase BCD Cost vs. Mission Complexity By SMD Science Area (Division) 15 Phase BCD Cost vs. Mission Complexity By SMD Science Area (Division) 15

Earth Science Decadal Survey Implementation • The NRC’s Earth Science decadal survey was published Earth Science Decadal Survey Implementation • The NRC’s Earth Science decadal survey was published in January 2007. Since then… – NPOESS “de-manifested” climate sensors (some of which found other homes) – Detailed mission concept studies showed some recommended missions will cost substantially more that the NRC estimated – House and Senate ‘Economic Stimulus’ bills propose additional funds for decadal survey missions • 2008 NASA Authorization Act requires NASA to provide a report to Congress on plans to implement decadal survey missions by July – NASA’s plan should incorporate the recent changes listed above • 2005 NASA Authorization Act requires the NRC to conduct performance assessments on NASA’s implementation of decadal surveys – Earth science assessment will begin in 2010 16

Progress On 2009 Operations Plan 2009 Work Plan Elements Feb Apr Jul Oct Comments Progress On 2009 Operations Plan 2009 Work Plan Elements Feb Apr Jul Oct Comments Lessons Learned on Large Mission Cost Growth Recommendation in Feb mtg for NASA compilation of lessons learned Review Balance in SMD Portfolio No SC action yet; NRC study on Mission-enabling program elements due in mid-2010 NAC recommendation in Oct. ‘ 08; NASA has requested a Minotaur IV for launch of LADEE Review plans for use of new ELVs for science missions Requirement & Plans for Space Communications Joint session with SOC in Oct resulted in request for more info; potential April agenda item Advise on Portfolio Mgmt for Advanced Technology No SC action yet. Work with EC on science enabled by or enabling human exploration Joint session in Feb mtg on Planetary Protection Monitor progress on Earth Science decadal survey implementation In work by ESS; following NASA’s preparation of an implementation plan due in July Monitor and advise NASA on NPOESS evolution & long-term data records In work by ESS; requesting that NASA factor this into decadal survey implementation plan Monitor Lunar Science Plan development and LEAG/OSEWG Workshop planning First draft of LEAG Lunar Goals Roadmap expected this Summer; considering workshop in conjunction with NLSI workshop 17

Recommendations 18 Recommendations 18

Recommendation • Short title of proposed recommendation: Communicate lessons learned on large mission cost Recommendation • Short title of proposed recommendation: Communicate lessons learned on large mission cost drivers to the Science Committee and to decadal survey committees. • Short Description of Proposed Recommendation: – Compile lessons learned on pre-phase B cost estimation for large missions, including influence of interactions among the science community, the NRC, and NASA HQ & Centers. Provide initial product to the Science Committee in its July meeting prior provision to the NRC committees undertaking the new round of decadal surveys in the space sciences. 19

Recommendation • Short title of proposed recommendation: International collaboration in space and Earth science. Recommendation • Short title of proposed recommendation: International collaboration in space and Earth science. • Short Description of Proposed Recommendation: – NASA should continue planning the implementation of decadal survey recommendations by considering the plans of other nation’s space agencies. Where strategic interests align, NASA should work with foreign partners to collaborate in program architecture development, including coordinated mission commitments with shared data as well as joint missions. 20