School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH ENVIRONMENT

School of Geography FACULTY OF EARTH & ENVIRONMENT Relationships between migration, commuting and household structure Oliver Duke-Williams o. w. duke-williams@leeds. ac. uk www. geog. leeds. ac. uk/people/. o. duke-williams/

Counting migrants and groups of migrants • Migrants move from origins to destinations • People may move singly or in groups • Up until the 2001 Census, migrants were counted (in the Census) in two ways • As individual migrants • As wholly moving households

A wholly moving household

Wholly moving households or not?

Counting migrants in the 2001 Census The 2001 Census introduced the concept of the moving group • Migrants within households are grouped on the basis of their common origins

Moving groups

Absolute numbers of migrants Migrants within UK, 2000 -1 Source: 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics

Migration rates Migrants within UK – rates per 1000 at destination, 2000 -1 Source: 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics

Absolute numbers of migrants by origin type Migrants within and into UK, 2000 -1 Source: 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics

Migration connectivity is a simple measure of how well places are connected to other places • It is affected by geography, but useful for comparing alternative characteristics given a fixed geography

Origin connectivity

Destination connectivity

About the BHPS The British Household Panel Survey • A multi-purpose panel survey • Interviews all adults in a set of representative households • First wave in 1991: 5, 500 households, 10, 000 individuals

BHPS: Migrants The BHPS is a useful source of information about migrants • Individuals are tracked over many years • The household context is clear • Respondents are asked about intentions to migrate, and about reasons for recent migration events Limitations • The sample size is small • The geography is limited • Migration tends to be a cause of attrition in longitudinal data sets

BHPS data studied Individuals from wave J (2000 -1) were studied • This roughly matches the transition period over which migration is recorded in the 2001 Census • The data were linked to the next wave, in order to identify those who had moved during the period

Characteristics of migrants in the BHPS Net balances by region, for movers within UK Region Inner London Outer London R. of South East South West East Anglia East Midlands West Midlands Conurbation R. of West Midlands Greater Manchester Merseyside R. of North West South Yorkshire West Yorkshire R. of Yorks & Humberside Tyne & Wear R. of North Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Total Outflo Net w Inflow gain 244 246 2 514 0 1736 1728 -8 846 852 6 395 402 7 794 811 17 348 489 380 177 429 235 315 352 483 376 180 434 229 314 4 -6 -4 3 5 -6 -1 324 222 362 2548 3010 146 323 226 365 2567 3026 146 -1 4 3 19 16 0 13633 0

Characteristics of migrants in the BHPS All respondents are asked when they moved to their present address • Data are highly dominated by recent moves • Other moves tend to be within last 10 years or so • The same pattern is apparent in other waves

Characteristics of migrants in the BHPS Age profile of migrants

Wishes to move Separate questions ask whether respondents would • prefer to move • expect to move within the next year Prefers to move? Frequen Perce cy nt Don't know 191 1% Stay here 9915 66% Prefer to move 4975 33% Total 15081 100% Expect to move in next year Don't know Frequen Perce cy nt 641 4% Yes 2073 14% No 12367 82% Total 15081 100%

Preference and expectation How to preference and expectation relate to each other? Expect to move Don't know Yes 19% 18% 63% 191 Stay here 2% 6% 91% 9915 Prefer to move 8% 29% 64% 4975 Prefer to move? Don't know No Total

Prefer to move Does preference vary by age or sex? Prefer to move Age group 16 -24 25 --44 45 -64 65+ Male Don't know 1% 2% 1% 1% Stay here 57% 54% 66% 78% Prefer to move 37% 40% 27% 18% Total 1071 2752 2119 1235 2% 1% 1% 1% Stay here 54% 58% 69% 79% Prefer to move 42% 39% 27% 17% Total 1213 3108 2417 1688 Female Don't know

Does preference vary by household Prefer to move? type? Age group 16 -24 25 -44 45 -64 65+ Single Non-Elderly Don't know 2% 2% 2% 0% Stay here 55% 50% 62% 67% Prefer to move Base 43% 148 48% 448 35% 486 33% 3 2% 1% Stay here 75% 84% Prefer to move 23% 15% 104 1133 Single Elderly Don't know Base

Prefer to move? Age group 16 -24 25 -44 45 -64 65+ Couple No Children Don't know Stay here Prefer to move Base 2% 53% 45% 251 1% 59% 40% 1073 1% 73% 26% 1725 1% 79% 20% 1357 Couple: dep children Don't know Stay here Prefer to move Base 1% 60% 39% 738 1% 60% 39% 3054 1% 70% 29% 751 0% 90% 10% 20 Couple: non-dep children Don't know Stay here Prefer to move Base 2% 57% 41% 450 1% 56% 42% 344 1% 71% 28% 910 0% 82% 18% 135

Prefer to move? Age group 16 -24 25 - 4544 64 65+ Lone par: dep children Don't know 2% 2% 2% 0% Stay here 53% 52% 57% 64% Prefer to move 45% 46% 41% 36% Base 220 460 104 11 Lone par: non-dep children Don't know 1% 2% 1% 1% Stay here 66% 50% 69% 85% Prefer to move 33% 48% 30% 14% Base 127 122 183 104

Prefer to move? Age group 25 - 4516 -24 44 64 65+ 2+ Unrelated adults Don't know 2% 3% 5% 0% Stay here 58%54%52% 80% Prefer to move 40%44%43% 20% Base 208 112 21 15 0% 0% 0% 2% Other Households Don't know Stay here 47%50%68% 72% Prefer to move 53%50%32% 26% Base 58 64 87 53

Is expectation realised? How well does an expectation of a move predict an actual move? • Link waves • Compare expect to move vs. actual move status • Can look at: Individual Preference mover status Non-mover Total Mover within GB Don't know 86% 14% Stay here 95% 5% 9068 Prefer to move Total 82% 91% 18% 4395 9% 13627 • Preference to move • Expecting to move Individual mover Expectation status Total Non. Mover mover within GB Don't know 86% 14% 561 Yes 53% 47% 1679 No Total 97% 91% 3% 11387 9% 13627 164

What about a year later? Preference • Are expected moves deferred? Individual mover status Non-mover Mover within GB Total Don't know 84% 16% 116 Stay here Prefer to move 95% 5% 7150 88% 12% 2916 Total 93% 7% 10182 Individual mover status Total Expectation Non-mover Mover within GB Don't know 84% 16% 385 Yes 73% 27% 696 No 95% 5% 9101 Total 93% 7% 10182

Reasons stated for moving 1. Those who expected to move and did move 2. Those who did not expect to move, but did move

Reasons for moving Stated reasons for an actual move incude employment reasons (various) and non-employment related Moved for employment reasons Expected to move Yes No Total Yes 20% 80% 257 No 10% 90% 100 Preference Moved for employment reasons Yes No Total Don't know Stay here 24% 10% 76% 90% 21 383 Prefer to move 11% 89% 761

Non-employment reasons Look at reasons for moving amongst those who expected to move and did move Reason Frequency Percent Other 34 14% Mve to college 33 14% Mve in wth partn 30 13% Evicted, reposs 19 8% Split from partn 15 6% Larger accom 12 5% Smaller accom 11 5% Better accom 10 4% Job reasn, self 9 4% Closr fam, friend 8 3% Own accom 8 3% Mve from family 7 3% Wants change 6 3% To specfc place 6 3% Job reasn, othr 5 2% Mve in wth family 4 2% Area unsafe 4 2% Area unfriendly 4 2% Buy accom 3 1% Left college 2 1% Dislkd area 2 1% Mve in wth friend 1 0% Retirement 1 0% Health reasons 1 0% To rural envirn 1 0% Total 236

Reasons for moving What about those who moved, but had not expected to do so? Reason Frequency Percent Other 11 12% Split from partn 10 11% Larger accom 10 11% Evicted, reposs 9 9% Smaller accom 9 9% Better accom 9 9% Mve in wth partn 7 7% Mve to college 6 6% Own accom 6 6% Mve in wth family 3 3% Mve from family 3 3% Health reasons 3 3% Other aspects 2 2% To specfc place 2 2% Closr fam, friend 1 1% Job reasn, self 1 1% Dislkd prev acc 1 1% Area unfriendly 1 1% Dislkd area 1 1% 95 95 Total

Reasons for moving Are reasons for moving different for those who do / do not move? • If respondents indicated that they would like to move, they were asked for reasons why • Did those who followed through on this wish quote different reasons? Reason to move Larger accom Other Dislikes area Own accommodation Feels isolated Other aspects To specific area Area unsafe Family reasons To buy somewhere Smaller/cheaper acc Unfriendly area Wants a change Another type Better accom Reduce travelling Occupation reasons To rural environ Noise No stairs Dislikes accom For childs education Traffic From urban environ Health reasons Retirement More privacy No reason Total Individual mover status Non-mover Mover within GB 16% 5% 9% 10% 8% 3% 6% 5% 5% 8% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 1% 5% 3% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 6% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3590 794

Reasons for moving Do stated reasons for moving vary by household type? Household type Reasons Single Nonelderly Mve to college • Look at most commonly cited reasons by individuals in different household types Percent 17% Other 11% Split from partn 11% Base Single-elderly 160 22% Closr fam, friend Health reasons 16% Evicted, reposs Base 11% 37

Reasons for moving Household type Couple No Children Reasons Mve in wth partn Buy accom Percent 20% Reasons Percent Split from partn 25% 11% Smaller accom Other 340 Larger accom 13% Base 28% Other 13% Evicted, reposs 8% Base Couple: dep children Household type Lone par: dep children 12% Mve in wth partn 9% Lone par: non-dep Base 364 children Split from partn 20% Evicted, reposs 20% Smaller accom 15% Mve in wth family Other Couple: non-dep children 55 12% Base Split from partn Base 10% 41 20

Household type Reasons Evicted, 2+ Unrelated adults reposs Percen t 23% Mve to college 21% Better accom 11% Base 22% 17% Mve in wth partn Other Evicted, reposs Other Households 73 17% Base 23

Effect of migration To what extent has migration been associated with a change in circumstances?

RG Social class Do migrants experience a change in Registrar General’s Social Class? RG Social Class Professional occ Wave J Wave K Change 46 50 9% Managerial & technical occ 233 252 8% Skilled non-manual 177 170 -4% Skilled manual 146 137 -6% Partly skilled occ 110 105 -5% Unskilled occ 26 25 -4% Armed forces 1 0 -100%

Tenure Change in tenure • Using all persons • Use person 1 only Tenure Wave J Wave K Change Owned Outright 140 145 4% Owned with Mortgage 502 529 5% Local Authority rented 171 142 -17% Housing Assoc. rented 49 62 27% Rented from Employer 18 18 0% Rented private unfurnished 132 127 -4% Rented private furnished 186 174 -6% Tenure Owned Outright Wave J Wave K Change 97 91 -6% Owned with Mortgage 325 319 -2% Local Authority rented 123 98 -20% Housing Assoc. rented 35 40 14% Rented from Employer 13 13 0% Rented private unfurnished 89 93 4% 121 148 22% Rented private furnished

Change in household type • Select movers in wave K • Compare household type in wave K with household type wave J • Fluctuations to household type due to age of children • Moves out of families into households of unrelated adults Household type Single Non-Elderly Wave J Wave K Change 971 986 2% Single Elderly 1115 1150 3% Couple No Children 2077 2163 4% Couple: dep children 1926 1931 0% Couple: non-dep children 617 547 -11% Lone par: dep children 554 479 -14% Lone par: non-dep children 262 255 -3% 2+ Unrelated adults 133 15% Other Households 100 91 -9%

Conclusions • BHPS permits detailed analysis of relationships between migrants and their household context • Demonstrates changes in household structure associated with migration events • Motivations for moving are many and varied