Scenario Thinking in Industrial Innovation Ian Osborne Principal, Osborne Associates www. osborneassociates. com 10/2/2004 Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 1
Agenda • Two case studies drawn from personal experience at HP/Agilent Technologies • Demonstrate the power of Scenario Analysis in strategic planning • Technology Strategy • Business Strategy • Beneficial side-effects 10/2/2004 Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 2
Industrial Innovation and Strategy • Innovation is a renewable source of competitive advantage • Hewlett-Packard differentiates itself and creates value through innovation – Product – Process • The ability to innovate reflects an understanding of customer needs, technology and markets • The development of markets is not easily predicted 10/2/2004 Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 3
HP Corporate Research & Development • HP Labs charged with leading technological innovation • Legacy of breakthroughs: Atomic Clock; Laser & Inkjet Printers; HP-PA; Itanium; Navigator Chip • Develop technology for transfer to operating divisions for commercialisation • Maintain technological competencies in key areas of HP business. 10/2/2004 • Key tasks: – Assess technology needs of company businesses – Align research areas to those of high uncertainty and greatest benefit – Develop forward looking view of technology and market – Identify key areas of uncertainty/opportunity – Address key points of influence Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 4
Pervasive Computing • Initiative pursued over several years • Looking at convergence of computing, communications and information • At heart of future of HP computer business • Key questions: – What will happen when? How? – What are the opportunities that are presented? 10/2/2004 • Inputs required: – technology roadmaps – understanding of evolution of user needs – potential for innovation • Reasoned about future of computer “packaging” in connected world – – Information Utility Information Appliance Smart packaging “Everyone is connected” Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 5
Formulating Strategy • Emphasis on incorporating “expert” inputs and perspectives • Use scenario analysis to formulate and test breakthrough ideas – I. e. In this context what happens to this idea? • More organic and exploratory than practically focused • Process can lead to breakthrough thinking 10/2/2004 • For example: – What if you could walk up to any device and communicate with it? – What if your car is able to monitor its operation and advise the garage of an emerging problem? – What if you buy processing capacity by the unit in realtime? – What if you could order up a video link for the lowest cost over your phone line in real time? Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 6
Results • Formulated strategies to underpin: – – Move to Internet based communications Move to information appliances (e. g. PDA) Move to infra-red inter device communication Move to digital imaging • Understanding of breakthroughs required to realise potential in: – Wearable computing (e. g. Virtual Reality) – Personal area networks (e. g. Blue Tooth) • Developed a long term strategic competence at heart of HP Research & Development – Influence present today in product successes. 10/2/2004 Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 7
Telecom Systems Division, Agilent Technologies Ltd. • HP/Agilent Operating Division – commercial business unit • Focus: Operational Support Systems in Telecoms • Market comprises: – Fixed and Mobile – Incumbent and Competitive Suppliers – Government Regulated • Organisation: – R&D, Marketing, Manufacturing 10/2/2004 • Key Tasks: – Market Analysis – Product Definition – Product Development – Operations – Sales/Delivery partner management – Services Support • Product: – Large, distributed systems – Hardware, software and services Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 8
1999 Scenario Planning Exercise • Objectives: – Assess impact of Mobile and Internet technologies on traditional telecom market – Identify opportunities and threats emerging – Revise strategies for addressing opportunities – Embrace new management team in division and representatives from partner organisations – Lay foundations for FY 2000 -03 Business Plan 10/2/2004 • Programme – Solid preparation led by Marketing Manager and me – Engaged strategic marketing team from Business Unit – Substantial engagement with facilitation team – preparation on process and content – 2 day offsite event including dinner exercise – Broad representation from senior/middle management, plus selected experts Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 9
Results • Energetic and enthusiastic meeting, helped by pleasant surroundings, good facilitation • Good team work, many new players • Opportunities and threats assessed – partitioned • Foundations laid for broader understanding of business • Identified major areas of uncertainty, i. e. When? How fast? On what basis? 10/2/2004 • Realisation that business plan vulnerable to changes in underlying technology and business patterns • Developed a new strand of business aimed at Internet based telecommunications (e. g. Vo. IP) • Encouraged team to explore these changes with customers • Identified triggers : enabled scanning for evidence of trends emerging Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 10
Scenario Analysis • Essential Tool in process of planning • Build and sustain a capability for the organisation to imagine the future … • and the paths that might lead there. • Structured and disciplined methods available • Developing the competence takes careful preparation and sustained activity • Benefits from a diversity of inputs – Customer, Supplier, Technologist, Marketer, … 10/2/2004 Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 11
Thank you! 10/2/2004 Copyright Osborne Associates (Scotland) Ltd 12
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