Rotary Club of Norwich 17 th February 2011 BUILDING COMMUNITIES BRIDGING CONTINENTS To a Sustainable Future Getting the best out of FITs Save Money? and the Planet Is it as simple as that? Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) Presentation will be placed on WEB tomorrow at: http: /www 2. env. uea. ac. uk/energy/nbs-m 018. htm 1
Potentials for Saving Money and the Planet • In next 10 years there is a need to address the issues of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction of Energy Supply. • In Energy Efficiency Reduction in Energy Use • In Energy Management • In Electricity Production • Move from high carbon fuels: coal, oil, gas An important component to consider now to because of inaction on renewables and • Nuclear conservation in past - but not until 2019 at earliest • Renewables Available now but financial support needed for small scale and emerging technologies. • Carbon Capture and Sequestration Will not be available on scale required until 2025 at the earliest. 2
Wholesale Price of Electricity – weekly averages UK becomes net importer of gas Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway Oil reaches $140 a barrel Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. Announced 16 th February 2011 – Liquid Natural Gas Transportation rates are expected to double or triple in 2011 3
Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices Electricity Indicies: 2001 = 100 700 600 500 wholesale retail 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 • Electricity retail prices have risen by ~6. 0% over last 10 years, much less than wholesale electricity prices but 2. 2 times RPI • In 1990 s electricity retail prices rose by 1. 3% less than 40% of RPI. 4
Incentives for Non-Electricity Options Low Carbon Non-Electricity Options • Heating - [Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) – from June 2011] – – Heat Pumps Biofuel options for boilers Biomass Solar Thermal Opportunities for both Domestic and Businesses • Transport - [Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO)] – Biofuels: Biodiesel and Bioethanol – Electric Vehicles – Fuel Cells Obligation on all suppliers to include a given percentage of biofuels in petrol and diesel. 5
Renewable Energy Incentives in UK - Electricity • Non Fossil Fuel Obligation (NFF 0) - 5 separate tranches in 1990 s. Was a Feed in Tariff, but failed to deliver largely because of planning issues. Only suitable for large generators. • Renewable Obligation (RO) - from 1 st April 2002. Sets targets which all suppliers had to meet – otherwise they were fined for non-compliance (Buy Out). The fines were recycled to those bodies who held certificates (ROCs) of Renewable Generation. Currently worth around £ 0. 3 billion. These “Buy-out Fines” are inflating unit price of electricity by around 0. 1 p or 0. 5 -1. 0%. Used by both large scale and small scale generators • From 1 st April 2010 all small generators < 50 k. W were transferred to the Feed In Tariff (FIT) Scheme as were all new small schemes. Medium sized schemes can opt to be in FIT or RO scheme. Large schemes can only be in RO. 6
Renewable Obligation Certificates Notifies Regulator how much generated. ROC’s issued The Regulator OFGEM Notifies OFGEM of compliance -i. e. ROCs or pays FINES recycled to holders of ROCs in proportion to number of ROCs held. Renewable Generator Sells ROCs to Trader SUPPLIERS Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Trader and Brokers Supplier Buys ROCs from Trader Because of recycling, ROCs have value greater than their nominal face value 7
Incentives under the Renewable Obligation Several benefits to generator (e. g. wind) • Whole sale price of Electricity • Value of the Renewable obligation Certificate • Mark up price arising from Buy- Out Fines Recycled Fines 1. 0 – 1. 5 p ROC Certificate 3. 996 p • Other small benefits • BUT if target is met – ROC certificates become worthless • Overall value might be up to 10 p but could be much less • At highest level of incentive – i. e. actual current value of ROC ~ 5. 0 p cost for reducing 1 tonne of CO 2 ~ £ 95 per tonne Wholesale Price Jan 2011 4. 950 p cf Jan 2010 4. 521 p 8
Feed in Tariff • The Renewable Obligation encounters risk and much paperwork for small potential generator • Led to Introduction of Feed in Tariff from 1 st April 2010. • A fixed amount is paid per unit and guaranteed for up to 25 years. • BUT General Capital Grants no longer available • Payment is for electricity generated whether it is actually exported to grid on consumed on premises. A frequently asked Question • Will I have electricity when there is a power cut – assuming of course the sun is shining (if I have solar) or the wind is blowing (if I have a wind turbine)? • NO!! – unless you have facilities for both “Island Mode Operation” and Grid Connection which can be very expensive for the small generator. 9
The Technologies - Solar Photo. Voltaic (Electricity) 2. 16 k. Wp ~ 16 sqm (Suffolk) Estimated output ~ 1650 k. Wh/annum 3. 70 k. Wp - ~ 25 sqm (Wales) Estimated output ~ 3000 k. Wh/annum Most electricity generators provide DC power and inverters are needed to convert to AC with connection to the GRID – such inverters consume some electricity ~ seasonal efficiency ~ 92%. 10
The Technologies – Micro Wind Building Mounted - ~ 1 k. W machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence Mast mounted away from buildings - 6 k. W Potential output 6000 – 12000 k. Wh depending on location 11
Other Technologies generating Electricity Replaces normal boiler Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas Micro CHP Micro-Hydro (Itteringham Mill) 5. 5 k. W annual output depends on flow 12000 – 18000 k. Wh 12
Feed in Tariff • Payments range from 4. 5 p per k. Wh to 41. 3 p per k. Wh depending on technology and capacity of generator. – e. g. for small scale retro-fitted solar, the payment would be 41. 3 p for k. Wh generator and guaranteed for 25 years, but new entrants from 1 st April 2012 will get 37. 8 p • An additional 3 p per k. Wh is paid for any electricity surplus to demand which is exported. ~44. 3 p per k. Wh for PV • This amounts to a renewable incentive of ~39 p per k. Wh and £ 742 per tonne of CO 2 ( assuming a wholesale price of ~ 5 p) • Nearly 8 times the subsidy for wind generation under the ROC scheme 13
Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1 st April 2010 Generation Tariff (p/k. Wh) Duration < 31/03/2012 > 01/04/12 (years) Anaerobic digestion ≤ 500 k. W 11. 5 20 Anaerobic digestion >500 k. W 9 9 20 Hydro ≤ 15 k. W 19. 9 20 Hydro >15 - 100 k. W 17. 8 20 Hydro >100 k. W - 2 MW 11 11 20 Hydro >2 k. W - 5 MW 4. 5 20 Micro-CHP***** <2 k. W 10 10 10 Solar PV ≤ 4 k. W new 36. 1 33. 0 25 Solar PV ≤ 4 k. W retrofit 41. 3 37. 8 25 Solar PV >4 -10 k. W 36. 1 33. 0 25 Solar PV >10 - 100 k. W 31. 4 28. 7 25 Solar PV >100 k. W - 5 MW 29. 3 26. 8 25 Solar PV Standalone 29. 3 26. 8 25 Wind ≤ 1. 5 k. W 34. 5 32. 6 20 Wind >1. 5 - 15 k. W 26. 7 25. 5 20 Wind >15 - 100 k. W 24. 1 23. 0 20 Wind >100 - 500 k. W 18. 8 20 Wind >500 k. W - 1. 5 MW 9. 4 20 Wind >1. 5 MW - 5 MW 4. 5 20 to 2027 Existing generators transferred from RO 9 9 ***** for first 20000 installations Energy Source Scale 1
Feed in Tariffs – Example for PV Payment for tariffs will be from a levy on Utility Companies which MAY see a cumulative rise in bills of around £ 1 billion or more. In addition there will be a payment of 3 p per k. Wh for any electricity exported as opposed to consumed on premises. BUT an export meter is needed to identify this. Householder will save on imported electricity at ~ 11 – 12 p per k. Wh, so optimum financial model may not be to generate as much as possible i. e. for each unit generated and consumed it is worth 41. 3+ 12 = 52. 3 p /k. Wh for each unit exported it is worth 41. 3 + 3 = 44. 3 p/k. Wh If no export meter is fitted : Transition arrangement of assuming (deeming) that 50% of generation will be exported will be made - that may well not be as attractive to consumer. Link to Example http: //www. decc. gov. uk/en/content/cms/what_we_do/uk_supply/energy_mix/renewable/feedin_tariff. aspx 15
Solar Rosette Diagram for East Anglia 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Tilt 90 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340 345 350 355 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 N NE SE SW NW N Azimuth Colour key: Figures show percentage output in particular orientation relative to maximum Optimum orientation is 35 degrees tilt and Azimuth 190 i. e. 10 degrees west of South <20 20 -30 30 -40 40 -50 50 -60 60 -70 70 -80 80 -90 90 -100
Renewable Heat Incentive: The Technologies • Biomass boiler - most convenient if running on pellets • Cheaper with wood chip but difficult to automate • Pellets ~ probably comparable in price with gas, but Renewable Heat Incentive would pay for heat generated Solar Thermal – example 2. 6 sqm in Norwich – generates 826 k. Wh/year (average over 7 years). The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! Note: Unlike FITs, the present proposals are for amount generated to be estimated and may be very different from actual – could be open to abuse and legal challenges. 17
Renewable Heat Incentive: The Technologies Ground Source: Heat Pumps Typically twice floor area of house is required for heat collection. Best performance with under floor heating – i. e difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible Zones of house can be controlled via a manifold 18
Renewable Heat Incentive: The Technologies Heat pumps run off electricity For a well designed ground source heat pump system: Typically 3. 5 – 4. 5 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP). If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity. Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed. Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank 19
Renewable Heat Incentive Small Scale Installations – Table of Tariffs Scale Solid biomass Bioliquids Biogas on-site combustion Ground source heat pumps Air source heat pumps Up to 45 k. W Proposed Tariff (p/k. Wh) 9 6. 5 5. 5 Deemed/or metered Deemed lifetime (years) 15 15 10 Up to 45 k. W 7 Deemed 23 Up to 45 k. W 7. 5 Deemed 18 Solar thermal Up to 20 k. W 18 Deemed 20 Tariffs for Large Installations are less. Awaiting response from Government following Consultation – information above may well change. Original target date for implementation – 1 st April 2011 Now targeted for June 2011
The Future of Incentives: From the National Infra-Structure Plan 2010 following Comprehensive Spending Review • The Government will reform the electricity market, so that it attracts the private sector investment necessary to meet the UK’s energy security and climate change objectives, including the investment in nuclear, carbon capture and storage and renewable technology. • In addition to supporting the carbon price, this will also assess the role that revenue support mechanisms (such as Feed-In Tariffs), capacity mechanisms and emission performance standards could play. • For complete information see Section 4 of http: //www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/d/nationalinfrastructureplan 251010. pdf 21
From the National Infra-Structure Plan 2010 following Comprehensive Spending Review The Government will • maintain the Feed-In-Tariffs to support investment in emerging small-scale generation technologies in electricity, saving £ 40 M by improving their efficiency, and complement this with • the Renewable Heat Incentive to reward ground-source heat pumps and other renewable heat sources, while making efficiency savings of 20% by 2014 -15 compared with the previous government’s plans. For complete information see Section 4 of http: //www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/d/nationalinfrastructureplan 251010. pdf 22
From the National Infra-Structure Plan 2010 following Comprehensive Spending Review The Government will (para 4. 18): • Support investment in low carbon energy supply by: maintaining Feed-In Tariffs for small-scale generation, funded through an obligation on electricity suppliers equating to a levy of almost £ 900 million over the period to 2014 -15. At the same time, the efficiency of Feed-In Tariffs will be improved at the next formal review [2012], rebalancing them in favour of more cost effective carbon abatement technologies. Equivalent to £ 36 per household May be an issue for PV as carbon abatement using PV is >£ 700 per tonne saved way above many other strategies cf ~£ 95 for wind, ~£ 20 for cavity insulation For complete information see Section 4 of http: //www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/d/nationalinfrastructureplan 251010. pdf 23
Who really pays for Electricity Incentives? • For Renewable Obligation: there is a small levy ~ 1% on all bills meaning that those who use most pay most – • For Feed in Tariff: there is also a levy on all electricity consumed. – Those with capital to pay for installation will be paid and will save on electricity consumed and will benefit more than any rise in tariffs. – Those who do not install will see their bills rise and will be subsidising those who have installations. • Is it fair to all concerned: • Does it pass the Rotary Four Way Test? • Current Proposals for Renewable Heat Incentive will pay an estimated amount. – What is to stop a person not using a Solar Water Heater and still receive the incentive? ? ? 24
Conclusions (1) • Current Renewable Electricity in UK is saving around 12 Mtonnes of CO 2 a year. • The Renewable Obligation is increasing electricity bills by around 1%, levied on all consumers. • The Feed in Tariff will see a further increase in bills, and will provide an income for those installing PV, etc as well as reduced electricity consumption. • BUT those not installing will see their bills go up disproportionately. • There is a greater return on capital if size of scheme is matched with demand 25
• Conclusions (2) The Feed in Tariff for PV is a costly way to reduce carbon ~£ 750 per tonne compared to ~ £ 95 for large scale wind, and ~£ 20 -£ 30 for cavity insulation. • The Renewable Heat Incentive has yet to be finalised • Following the Comprehensive Spending Review a review of incentives in 2012 may well significantly reduce benefits for PV, but increase those for other strategies – e. g. insulation, micro-CHP? ? ? • Previous experience suggests that existing Rights to tariffs will be “Grandfathered” • Finally: If you want to take advantage – do so before 1 st April 2012. http: //www 2. env. uea. ac. uk/energy/nbs-m 018. htm 26
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