ROGUE STATES IN THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

“ROGUE STATES” IN THE SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: SYRIA AND WEPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION Kudrin Egor The Urals A. M. Gorky State University, Ekaterinburg

International Situation of Syria within the frame of WMD «Syria presents a significant country of our concern» Secretary of State C. Powell «state-sponsor of terrorism» WMD programs

Geopolitical situation, and factor in the frame of WMD programs political contradictions with Israel practically since the first years of its existence water resources “updated” geopolitical situation in the region after Saddam’s regime collapse

Role of the WMD factor in the Asads’ political course priority: “fight for the Middle East”, mainly, in opposition with Israel short-and long-term objective: “strategic parity” mechanisms: Ø Technical-scientific potential mobilization; Ø Research Centre in Damascus (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques - CERS) Hafez al-Asad (1971 -2000) priority: modernization of Syria short-and long-term objective: maintenance of internal interests mechanisms: flexible political course Bashir al-Asad

Status of Syria in the Essential Non-proliferation Regimes Nuclear Weapon Syria does not possess the nuclear weapon or sufficient infrastructure for development in this area Chemical Weapon Syria possesses the most significant arsenal of warfare agents (including mustard gas, sarin, and other) in the Middle East and continues the further studies to achieve more “efficient” binary weapon (VX-gases). Biological weapon There is not any data on working out or stockpiling of biological agents.

Status of Syria in the Essential Non-proliferation Regimes Status of Syria in the Essential Nonproliferation Regimes International Atomic Energy Agency Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NTI) Additional protocol SYRIA Syrian Arabic Republic June 6, 1963 July 1, 1968 Ratified on September 24, 1969 May 18, 1992 CWC Syria denied to sign and ratify CWC BWC Signed on April 14, 1972 Not ratified

“Syrian Los Alamos” IAEA does not possess any information on the Syrian Nuclear program which would concern IAEA General Director El. Baradey BECAUSE OF - lack of competent specialists, infrastructure and technical basis, financial resources - stiffening of Control Regimes of Non. Proliferation - territorial compactness of the region and meteorological particularity

Chemical and biological weapon According to some experts Syria possesses the most developed and the most advanced program of the chemical weapon produce, in the Middle East. Regarding to estimation of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, the total volume of warfare agents works out 500 -1000 metric ton. The annual Syrian expenditures on realization of the program in the field of chemical weapon and delivery systems varies from $ 1 to 2 billion.

Saddam’s WMD is in Syria…? In December 2002 Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon in his interview had declared that “disposes of information on transfer of chemical and biological weapon from Iraq Syria”

It is considered… Syria indeed does not possess any type of WMD since it was transported into Sudan. The Western Intelligence services have revealed that in January 2004 delivery systems “Scud C” and “Scud D”, either as the WMD components were transported on civil plane, but under the direct control of Ministry of defense on military basis Hartum in Sudan. The president of Sudan Omar Bashir was not informed about the delivery of Syrian WMD