Скачать презентацию Risk Environment for Agriculture Ag Credit School Ames Скачать презентацию Risk Environment for Agriculture Ag Credit School Ames

ec950ed0ca446b038c85bdc13d3c228b.ppt

  • Количество слайдов: 28

Risk Environment for Agriculture Ag. Credit School Ames, Iowa June 4, 2013 Chad Hart Risk Environment for Agriculture Ag. Credit School Ames, Iowa June 4, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist [email protected] edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Population 2013 2020 (billion) World 7. 095 2050 (billion) World 7. 628 (billion) World Population 2013 2020 (billion) World 7. 095 2050 (billion) World 7. 628 (billion) World 9. 383 China 1. 350 China 1. 385 India 1. 657 India 1. 221 India 1. 326 China 1. 304 U. S. 0. 423 0. 317 0. 337 Indonesia 0. 251 Indonesia 0. 267 Nigeria 0. 402 Brazil 0. 201 Pakistan 0. 214 Indonesia 0. 300 Pakistan 0. 193 Brazil 0. 212 Pakistan 0. 291 Nigeria 0. 175 Nigeria Bangladesh 0. 164 Bangladesh Brazil 0. 183 0. 232 Russia 0. 143 Russia 0. 142 Ethiopia 0. 228 Japan 0. 126 Philippines 0. 172 Japan 0. 127 0. 208 0. 250 Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics GDP Growth Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Meat Consumption Source: USDA-PSD Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Meat Consumption Source: USDA-PSD Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Veg. Oil Consumption Source: USDA-PSD Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Veg. Oil Consumption Source: USDA-PSD Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Liquid Fuel Usage 2007 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 2015 2020 2025 2030 Liquid Fuel Usage 2007 (Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per Day) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 United States 20. 6 98% 100% 102% 104% 107% Canada 2. 3 96% 96% 100% 104% Mexico 2. 1 105% 110% 114% 129% 138% Europe 15. 3 92% 88% 89% 90% Japan 5. 0 84% 86% 84% 82% China 7. 6 132% 153% 178% 201% 222% India 2. 8 114% 129% 139% 154% 168% Africa 3. 1 113% 116% 126% 135% 148% Central and South America 6. 0 110% 112% 117% 125% 133% World 86. 1 103% 107% 113% 121% 128% (Percent of 2007 Value) Source: DOE-EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Crude Oil Prices Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U. S. Crude Oil Prices Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7. 6 bil. gal. 7. 4 bil. gal. Source: U. S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7. 6 bil. gal. 7. 4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Government Debt Source: Fed. Res. Bank of St. L, FRED Extension and Outreach/Department of Government Debt Source: Fed. Res. Bank of St. L, FRED Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Employment Source: Fed. Res. Bank of St. L, FRED Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Employment Source: Fed. Res. Bank of St. L, FRED Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Real GDP Source: Fed. Res. Bank of St. L, FRED Extension and Outreach/Department of Real GDP Source: Fed. Res. Bank of St. L, FRED Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Budget Projections by Title 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) Title I – Commodity Budget Projections by Title 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) Title I – Commodity -17, 639 Title II – Conservation -6, 374 Title III – Trade 0 Title IV – Nutrition -4, 024 Title V – Credit 0 Title VI – Rural Development 0 Title VII – Research 645 Title VIII – Forestry 9 Title IX – Energy 0 Title X – Horticulture 359 Title XI – Crop Insurance 2, 748 Title XII – Miscellaneous -466 Total -24, 747 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Budget Projections by Crop Corn Soybean Wheat 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) -5, Budget Projections by Crop Corn Soybean Wheat 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) -5, 752 1, 459 -6, 409 Cotton Rice Sorghum Barley Oats Peanuts Dairy -6, 077 -2, 842 -505 -615 -11 -314 -59 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Commodity Title Changes 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) End Direct Payments -44, 622 Commodity Title Changes 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) End Direct Payments -44, 622 End Countercyclical Payments -1, 008 End ACRE -4, 615 Adding Popcorn 91 Ag. Risk Coverage 29, 240 Marketing Loans 35 Sugar Program 0 Dairy Program -59 Disaster Assistance 3, 297 AGI Limits -95 Implementation 100 Total -17, 639 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Insurance Title Changes 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) Supplemental Coverage Option 682 Crop Insurance Title Changes 2013 -2022 Budget Change ($ million) Supplemental Coverage Option 682 CAT Rerating -437 Enterprise Units 506 APH Adjustment 855 Stacked IP for Cotton 3, 224 Peanut Rev. Insurance 239 Implementation 85 Index-Based Weather Ins. 50 Beginning Farmer Provisions 192 Ag. Mng. Assistance 6 Crop Prod. on Native Sod -167 Participation Effects from ARC -2, 487 Total 2, 748 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Free Trade Agreements • With South Korea, Colombia, and Panama • Previously, with Israel, Free Trade Agreements • With South Korea, Colombia, and Panama • Previously, with Israel, Jordan, Singapore, Chile, Australia, Morocco, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Bahrain, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Oman, and Peru • Most famous: NAFTA, with Canada and Mexico Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soy Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics