RISK ASSESSMENT OF AFLATOXIN M 1 IN THE MILK AND DAIRY PRODUCTS OF KAZAKHSTAN ORYMBETOVA GULBAGI Tutor: Dr. ir. prof. Liesbeth Jacxsens
Table 1. Quantitative risk assessment models for mycotoxins Mycotoxin Fumonisins B 1 and B 2 Food commodity Corn (location-USA) Reference Humphreys S. H. , Carrington C. , Bolger M. 2001 ochratoxin A grapes, cereals, beans and dried fruits China main dairy products (milk, cheese and yoghurt) (Spain) Zheng Han, Dongxia Nie et al. 2013 aflatoxin M 1 Ochratoxin A Aflatoxin M 1 Deoxynivalenol (DON) Fusarium cereals, coffee, fruit juices, pork, poultry, raisins, dried fruits (France) Raw milk (Italy) German Cano-Sancho, Sonia Marin et al 2010 Jean-Pierre Gauchi and Jean-Charles Leblanc, 2002 Trevisani M. , Serraino A. and Boscolo D. 2004 wheat and maize Zheng Han, Dongxia Nie et al. 2014 fiber-enriched bread, bran- Marthe De Boevre, Liesbeth Jacxsens, Carl enriched bread, breakfast Lachat et al. 2013. cereals, popcorn, oatmeal Aflatoxin B 1 and ochratoxin nuts and dried fruits A Evelien Van de Perre, Liesbeth Jacxsens et al. 2015
Table 2. Calculations of concentration of the aflatoxin M 1 in milk (μg kg-1) and consumption milk and dairy product, kg/day bw AF B 1 g/kg Concentration AF Consumption milk and M 1 in milk, g/kg dairy product, g/day (bw, dairy product, kg/day kg) bw 2. 3 0. 013 50 (88) 0. 000568 4. 9 0. 026 150 (19) 0. 007895 5. 1 0. 027 250 (69) 0. 003623 7. 0 0. 037 200 (33) 0. 006061 13. 1 0. 067 180 (58) 0. 003103 17. 0 0. 087 220 (15) 0. 014667 49. 0 0. 247 270 (24) 0. 01125 68. 0 0. 342 150 (49) 0. 003061 … … 98. 0 0. 492 390 (66) 0. 005909
Table 3. Deterministic risk analysis for consumption milk with aflatoxin M 1 (μg kg− 1 bw day− 1) for upper bound Upper bound μg kg− 1 bw day− 1 Mean Max 50 Percentile 75 Percentile 95 Percentile Consumption 0. 0052 0. 0181 0. 00402 0. 00555 0. 01313 AFM 1 0. 1398 0. 4920 0. 087 0. 237 0. 339 0. 00073 0. 00892 0. 00035 0. 00131 0. 00445 0. 0025 0. 29 3. 57 0. 14 0. 52 1. 78 Exposure TDI Risk
Table 4. Probabilistic analysis of estimated aflatoxin intake milk (mean, standard deviation and percentiles, gkgbwd-1) by population of Kazakhstan (c. Shymkent) ALL Intake (for consumer) ALL Intake (for population) LB ALL Intake (for population) MB ALL Intake (for population) UB Min 0. 000016 0. 000000 0. 000027 0. 000014 SD 0. 000952 0. 000793 0. 000739 0. 000871 Mean 0. 000925 0. 000451 0. 000691 0. 000931 Max 0. 025926 0. 029248 0. 010505 0. 040164 Med (P 50) 0. 000684 0. 000000 0. 000514 0. 000753 P 90 0. 001934 0. 001375 0. 001419 0. 001875 P 95 0. 002474 0. 001877 0. 001915 0. 002215 P 99. 9 0. 008088 0. 005528 0. 005777 0. 006871 P(X
Figure 1. Cumulative distribution of the risk analysis of exposure to AF M 1 intake consumption
Sampling plan of milk and milk products Table 5. Selection of products included in the sampling plan Type product Milk and cream Cheese and curd Butter Condensed milk Dry milk The volume of production in Kazakhstan for a year, ton 466 302 21 899 15 701 9 157 2 987 Control (selection risk) Coliform bacteria, yeast, mold number of mesophilic aerobic and facultative anaerobic microorganisms, lactic acid bacteria, pathogens, incl. Salmonella S. aureus L. monocytogenes Pesticides Alfatoxine M 1 Antibiotics Toxic elements (lead, arsenic, cadmium, Hg) Physical and chemical parameters Visuele controle
Table 6. The calculation of the number samples of each product type according to criteria 1, 2 and 3 Product Hazard Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Milk and cream Pathogens and bacteria Mycotoxines Pesticides Visuele controle Physical and chemical parameters Pathogens and bacteria Mycotoxines Pesticides 3 Cheese and curd Butter Condensed milk Dry milk Total score 3 Criterion 3 ( total number from table 1, ton) 4 (466 302) 10 The calculation of the number of samples 147 4 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 11 8 7 8 147 147 3 3 3 (21 899) 9 147 4 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 10 7 6 7 147 113 147 3 3 3 (15 701) 9 147 4 2 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 (9 157) 10 7 6 8 147 113 147 4 2 1 1 3 2 2 3 9 6 5 6 147 113 113 3 3 1 (2 987) 7 147 4 2 3 2 8 5 147 113
Quantity analysis calculated according to the following Cannon & Roe formula n = [1 – (1 -α)1/D] x [N – (D-1)/2] n=(1 -(1 -0. 95)^(1/200))*(10000 -(200 -1)/2)=147 In total 147 samples were calculated for 5 products
Conclusions and Recommendation - Decreasing the amount of aflatoxin in milk (AFM 1<0. 05 kg/kg) by reducing their content in feed (AFB 1<20 kg/kg) - - Optimal harvest time so that crops are not left in the field exposed to environmental factors that predispose crops to pathogen infection. Harvesting immediately after physiological maturity is recommended since aflatoxin level can increase with delayed harvest interval Farmers training on good agriculture practice Use of mobile lab (Rapid aflatoxin testing) Reduction of moisture in grains is very important (≤ 13% moisture). - Remove moldy corns. This will halt growth of fungi in the product. Products stored with high moisture increase growth of fungi in the stored product and this leads to increase of aflatoxin in the product - Corns are stored in a well aerated store under monitored conditions to control mold growth - Quality management systems for Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point (HACCP) should be
Acknowledgment Prof. Dr. ir. Liesbeth Jacxsens Thank you for attention