Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 Presented by Magnus

Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 Presented by Magnus Ebo Duncan On 30 th April 2008

Outline of the presentation GDP and its importance Types of GDP estimation Compilation & Estimation of GDP by the Production Approach Schedule of updates Revised estimates for 2008 2

What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? The total value of the final goods and services produced in the country during a given period, usually one year 3

Importance of GDP To measure the performance of the economy in a given time period To compare the level of performance from year to year To assess the performance of the various sectors of the economy 4

Measurement Approaches Production Approach Expenditure Approach Income Approach 5

Generation and Use of National Income Factor Markets Factor cost Wages & rents Domestic private savings Gov’t savings Taxes Firms Intermediate demand Households Government Save/Invest Transfers Sales revenues Product Markets Private cons. Gov’t exp. Invest. exp. Domestic demand for final goods Import payments Export receipts Rest of world Foreign savings

Compilation & estimation of GDP by the Production approach

MAIN AND SUB SECTORS FOR THE GDP COMPILATION AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Electricity and Water Construction SERVICES Transport, Storage and Communication Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services Government Services Community, Social and Personal Services Producers of Private Non- profit Services 8 3/15/2018

Main and sub sectors for the GDP compilation 1. AGRICULTURE Crops and Livestock Cocoa Production and Marketing Forestry and Logging Fishing 2. INDUSTRY 2. 1 Mining and Quarrying 2. 2 Manufacturing 2. 3 Electricity and Water 2. 4 Construction 3. SERVICES 3. 1 Transport, Storage and Communication 3. 2 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 3. 3 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services 3. 4 Government Services 3. 5 Community, Social and Personal Services 3. 6 Producers of Private Non- profit Services

Sources of Data ü administrative records (Public and Private Enterprises, MDAs) ü Surveys (Households and Specific) ü Censuses 10

Sources of Data – Agricultural Sector 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 11 Data on crop production - Statistics, Research and Information Division (SRID) of MOFA Data on livestock production - Animal Health & Production Department Cocoa production & marketing - COCOBOD Data on forestry & logging - Forestry Commission Data on Fishing - Fisheries Department

Sources of Data – Industrial Sector Mining & Quarrying 1. Mines Department and Minerals Commission 2. Precious Minerals Marketing Company Electricity and Water 1. Electricity Company of Ghana Ltd 2. Volta River Authority 3. Ghana Water Company Ltd 12

Sources of Data – Industrial Sector (Cont. ) Manufacturing – a combination of 1. Information from the Ghana Living Standard Survey 2. VAT data 3. Financial Statements of Selected Establishments Construction 1. Ghacem Ltd and Diamond Cement 2. Imports 3. VAT data 13

Sources. Trade, Data. Restaurants of Hotels & – Services Sector Wholesale & Retail 1. 2. 3. Commodity flow VAT data Ghana Living Standard Survey (GLSS) Transport and Communication 1. Major transport companies 2. DVLA 3. Ghana Post, Vodafone, Scanscom, Millicom, Kasapa 14

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont. ) Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Banks 2. Insurance Companies 3. VAT 1. 15

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont. ) Government Services 1. Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning 2. Ministry of Local Government 3. Bank of Ghana 4. Controller and Accountant General’s Department 16

Sources of Data – Services Sector (Cont. ) Community, Social & Personal Service Ghana Living Standard Surveys (GLSS) VAT data Producers of Private Non-Profit Services (NPISH) 17 Religious Organizations Civil Society Organizations TUC

Valuation of GDP at Current Prices (Nominal GDP) GDP at Constant Prices (Real GDP) 18

GDP at Current Prices GDP computed at the prevailing market prices of the given year This is also referred to as the nominal GDP 19

GDP at Constant Prices The GDP at current prices deflated to a given base year prices Using the appropriate price indices (e. g. CPI, PPI, Exchange Rate Index, Minimum Wage Index etc. ) Currently, the base year for the constant estimates of Ghana’s GDP is 1993 20

TYPES OF ESTIMATES -Projected -provisional -Revised -final 21

Projected Estimates They are made for future periods where economic activities have not taken place or no data on activities are available The estimates are made based on • government policies and decisions • Trend analysis and other economic models • assumptions (eg. weather) 22

Provisional Estimates Any changes made to the projected estimates, using data which cover about half of the year under consideration Provisional estimates are normally ready by September 23

Revised Estimates Revision of the provisional figures is based on full year data for most of the sub-sectors. The revised GDP is normally ready by April of the subsequent year (for e. g. Revised GDP estimates of 2007 were generated in April 2008) 24

Final Estimates The estimates are designated final when data for all the subsectors for the year under consideration are used to make adjustments in the revised estimates. 25

REVISED ESTIMATES FOR 2008 26

Real GDP Growth Rate in the Agriculture Sector 2008 Activity Projected Provisional Intermediate Revision for Budget Revised Crops and Livestock 5. 5 5. 8 Cocoa Forestry and Logging 4. 0 5. 0 3. 5 Fishing Total Agriculture 27 5. 5 5. 0 3. 0 5. 0 4. 9 5. 14

Real Growth in the Industry Sector - 2008 Activity Projected Provisional Intermediate Revision for Budget Revised Mining and Quarrying 8. 0 14. 0 2. 1 Manufacturing 4. 0 4. 3 4. 5 Production and Distribution of Electricity and Water 12. 0 16. 3 4 Construction 13. 0 12. 0 14. 0 Total Industry 28 22. 0 9. 7 10 8. 3 8. 1 19.

Real Growth in the Services Sector - 2008 Activity Projected Provisional Intermediate Revision for Budget 2009 Revised Transport, Storage and Communication 10. 0 8. 0 10. 0 8. 9 Wholesale, Retail Trade, Hotels and Restaurants 10. 0 7. 0 10. 2 Finance, Insurance, Real Estates and Business Services 13. 0 9. 6 Government Services 2. 7 9. 7 Community , Social and Personal Services 6. 0 4. 5 Producers of Private Non-profit Services 6. 0 5. 0 7. 3 6. 4 6. 9 9. 3 29 Total Services

Revised GDP estimates - 2008 Indicator Projected Provisiona l Intermediate Revision for Budget Revised GDP at factor cost 6. 9 6. 5 7. 4 Net Indirect Taxes 6. 0 4. 6 6. 2 GDP at Purchasers’ Value 30 7. 1 7. 0 6. 7 6. 2 7. 3

Final GDP Estimates for 2007 (Millions of GH Cedis) Economic Activity Real GDP Nominal GDP Agriculture 4, 761. 6 Industry 190. 4 3, 552. 9 Service 231. 5 4, 503. 8 GDP (in purchasers’ value) 31 254. 0 741. 2 14, 045. 8

Revised GDP Estimates for 2008 (Millions of GH Cedis) Economic Activity Real GDP Nominal GDP Agriculture 5, 901. 1 Industry 205. 8 4, 442. 0 Service 252. 9 5, 740. 5 GDP (in purchasers’ value) 32 267. 1 795. 1 17, 617. 6

Major Indicators INDICATORS Nominal GDP (in Million GH₵) Real GDP (in Mill GH₵) ESTIMATES 17, 617. 6 795. 1 Real GDP growth rate (%) GDP per Capita ( in GH₵) 753. 5 GDP per Capita (in US$) 33 7. 3 712. 3

WAY FORWORD 34

Planned Activities Rebasing of the national accounts - Changing the base year from 1993 to a more recent year - Compilation of the GDP by Expenditure Approach Compilation of more national accounts aggregates Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly Economic Bulletin 35

Acknowledgement The Government Statistician wishes to extend her sincere thanks to all stakeholders, who in diverse ways, provide inputs for the compilation of the national accounts. THANK YOU 36

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