Restricted Opening markets through a bond fund The

Restricted Opening markets through a bond fund: The Asian Bond Fund II Guonan Ma Bank for International Settlements Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC Seminar Developing Asian Bond Markets: from Investors‘ perspective 4 -6 November 2005, Shanghai 1

Restricted The issues at stake I. What is Asian Bond Fund II (ABF 2)? II. Why was ABF 2 launched? III. How is ABF 2 structured? IV. What are the advantages of ABF 2? V. How has ABF 2 performed so far? 2

Restricted I. What is ABF 2? Ø ABF 2 is the second stage of the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) initiatives and invests in EMEAP local currency bond markets. Ø ABF 2 investment is initially funded by international reserves pooled from the EMEAP central banks. Ø It complements other parallel regional initiatives to promote bond market development in Asia. 3

Restricted ABF and EMEAP q First initiatives in which a regional 1. Reserve Bank of Australia organisation has contributed financial resources to setting up actual bond funds in Asia. 2. The People’s Bank of China 3. Hong Kong Monetary Authority 4. Bank Indonesia 5. Bank of Japan 6. The Bank of Korea 7. Bank Negara Malaysia 8. Reserve Bank of New Zealand 9. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas q This organisation is a central bank forum called EMEAP (Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks) with 11 members: 10. Monetary Authority of Singapore 11. Bank of Thailand 4

Restricted Two stages of ABF: ABF 1 and ABF 2 l ABF 1: § launched in June 2003; § US$1 billion pooled from the 11 EMEAP central banks only; § investing in dollar bonds issued by 8 EMEAP sovereign and quasi sovereign borrowers. l ABF 2: § launched in Spring 2005; § initial seed money of US$2 billion by the 11 EMEAP central banks; § investing in local-currency bonds issued by 8 EMEAP sovereign and quasi sovereign borrowers. 5

Restricted The catalyst role of ABF l ABF 1 allowed EMEAP central banks to work together and build trust. l Importance of the size of the funds – not so big as to influence markets but big enough to signal serious intent. Ø The combined foreign reserves of the 11 EMEAP central banks exceed US$2 trillion Ø The aggregate outstanding domestic debt securities of the 8 EMEAP markets approach US$1. 4 trillion Ø RBA, Bo. J and NZRB pure investors l Process more important than size: Learning by doing an important advantage. l Aim of ABF 2 is to reduce market impediments. 6

Restricted Initiatives in Asian regional cooperation l Various regional initiatives to promote Asian domestic bond markets under three banners => 1. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) 2. The Association of South East Asian Nations Plus China, Japan and Korea (ASEAN+3) 3. The Executives’ Meeting of East Asia and Pacific (EMEAP) l They tend to supplement and complement each other. l ABF was unique as the only initiative involving actual bond funds 7

Restricted The role of BIS in ABF l BIS is a cooperative organisation of central banks. l BIS has been working closely with the EMEAP group as well as other regional central bank fora. l Upon invitation, the BIS plays an important role in the ABF exercises => • Fund manager for ABF 1 • Administrator for ABF 2 8

Restricted II. Why ABF 2? Ø Asian domestic bond markets have advanced but remain underdeveloped. Ø Learning by doing: impediments are more appreciated in the process of actually setting up bond funds. Ø Market reform as a public good: ABF 2 accelerates bond market development. Ø Asian local currency bonds are becoming a more important asset class in investors’ global portfolio. 9

Restricted Domestic debt market development 10

Restricted Asian bond markets advance … l Local currency bond markets in Asia has expanded considerably since 1998: Ø Total domestic debt securities of the 8 EMEAP markets have almost tripled. Ø Domestic private debts outstanding also more than doubled. l Economic consequences of the Asian crisis themselves added impetus to market development: Ø It brought home the lessons of currency mismatch due to a weak domestic debt market. Ø Budget deficits widened amid economic contractions. Ø Large-scale bank recapitalisation added to public financing needs. 11

Restricted Domestic debt securities (% of GDP, 2004) Sources: national authorities and BIS. 12

Restricted … but remain underdeveloped l Despite expansion, Asian local currency bond markets are still well below their potential to intermediate. l Capital flows show that much of financial intermediation is being carried out abroad => q Asians investing in low-yielding foreign assets and foreigners in higher-yielding Asian assets. l To bring such intermediation home, Asian policymakers perceive a need for deeper and more liquid local bond markets. 13

Restricted Share of non-intermediated debt (% of total domestic debt, 2004) Note: Domestic debt is the sum of domestic debt securities and domestic credit. Non-intermediated debt is domestic debt securities. Sources: BIS and IMF. 14

Restricted Impediments to market development l Cross-border impediments: Ø Capital controls and FX regulations Ø Excessive regulatory hurdles to non-resident issuers/investors Ø Cross-border delivery and settlements l Local market impediments: Ø Taxes Ø Regulatory fragmentations and inconsistency Ø Insufficient market development Ø Inadequate market infrastructure 15

Restricted ABF 2: Learning by doing l Learning: impediments encountered and better understood by policymakers in setting up of actual bond funds. • Direct participation as an investor offers fresh perspectives. l Doing: overcoming these impediments directly by policymakers benefits broader market development. • Reducing regulatory impediments can be seen as providing public services. • Private-sector approach via circumventing or lobbying may not be the most efficient. 16

Restricted Asian bonds as an asset class l From USD, yen and euro investors’ perspectives, low correlations between an EMEAP basket and their home currency bond returns make a strong case for diversification. Ø Even among components within the Asian basket, there is a good case for diversification via capital flows across the region. l For a dollar or yen investors’ perspective, the ABF 2 basket offers higher risk-adjusted returns. Ø Moreover, the Asian index has higher risk-adjusted returns than most of its individual components. 17

Restricted Annualised 3 M USD returns of 5 Y bonds over the past five years 18 Source: Martin Hohensee, “An Introduction to ABF 2”, June 2005. The EMEAP basket includes HK, MY, PH, KR & TH.

Restricted Annualised 3 M USD returns of 5 Y bonds over the past five years Source: Martin Hohensee, “An Introduction to ABF 2”, June 2005. The EMEAP basket includes HK, MY, PH, KR & TH. 19

Restricted III. How is ABF 2 structured? Ø ABF 2 has nine funds in two phases: q Phase One: 11 EMEAP central banks invest $2 bn in 8 EMEAP markets via 9 separate private bond funds. q Phase Two: these 9 bond funds will be open up to all investors via listing in exchanges. Ø All nine funds are index funds tracking benchmarks provided by International Index Company (IIC). Ø One of these nine bonds funds directly covers the eight EMEAP markets. 20

Restricted Nine bond index funds under ABF 2 l ABF 2 comprises nine separate bond funds: • 1 Pan-Asia Index Bond Fund (PAIF); • 8 single-market bond index funds. l All 9 ABF 2 funds are bond index funds: • Passively managed against (tracking) benchmark indices; • International Index Company is the third-party benchmark index provider. l So far, the PAIF, Hong Kong Fund and Malaysia Fund have already been listed. 21

Restricted Structure of ABF 2 22

Restricted Two phases of ABF 2 l Phase 1: investments of some $2 billion in the nine ABF 2 funds are confined to EMEAP central banks (already fully operational). l Phase 2: the nine ABF 2 funds are to be gradually opened up to other institutional and retail investors, both within and outside the EMEAP region (so far, four funds have been listed on exchanges). l A staged approach: each fund could proceed at its own pace and timing to accommodate differences. 23

Restricted More on the PAIF l A single-index fund covering all eight EMEAP markets. l Domiciled in Singapore and initially listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. l Quoted in USD on an unhedged basis and tracking the total returns of the Pan-Asia Index. l Starting with an initial equal weight, the market weights of the “i. Boxx Pan Asia Index” are determined by four factors: 1. Bond market size (20%) 2. Turnover (20%) 3. Sovereign rating (20%) 4. Market openness (40%) 24

Restricted Market weights for the PAIF Based on market capitalisation alone Based on four factors Note: Others comprise the remaining four EMEAP markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Sources: International Index Company (2005 b, right-hand panel); BIS calculations (left-hand panel). 25

Restricted A new family of indices by IIC (i. Boxx) l A family of Asian bond indices, known as i. Boxx ABF, serve as the benchmarks for the ABF 2 funds. l These indices include sovereign and quasi-sovereign local currency debts, with the latter subject to credit rating criteria. l Bond prices for index constituents are provided daily by leading international investment banks and local institutions. l A useful addition to market infrastructure. 26

Restricted Two ways to trade the PAIF 27

Restricted IV. What are the advantages of ABF 2? Ø Market impediments were encountered in the setting up of ABF 2 … Ø … but peer encouragement “fast-tracks” market reforms Ø and promotes central bank cooperation and public-private sector cooperation. Ø Mechanisms have been built to offer incentives to further reduce impediments. Ø More product innovations and broader investor base. 28

Restricted Peer encouragement to fast-track market reforms l Working as a group, EMEAP central banks benefited from peer encouragement => q Better appreciating more their divergent regulatory frameworks. q Seeing that neighbouring countries have already instituted market reforms helps in “fast-tracking” your own initiatives. q Central bank officials worked with their counterparts at the Mo. F or securities regulator to deal with impediments. q Building confidence and rapport for central bank cooperation. 29

Restricted Some impediments are already removed…. l Relaxing capital controls: Ø Malaysia announced significant measures to liberalise FX controls on the eve of launching ABF 2. Ø ABF 2 is the first foreign institutional investor gaining direct access into China’s inter-bank bond market. l Withholding taxes and other taxes: Ø Thailand Malaysia have already granted non-resident investors withholding tax exemption; Ø So far, five of the eight EMEAP member markets have offered some sort of exemptions; Ø In the Philippines, the documentary stamp duty will be removed. 30

Restricted An example of public-private cooperation l Seed money: EMEAP central banks. l Initial mandates: EMEAP central banks. l PAIF fund manager and custodian: SSg. A and HSBC. l Single market funds: prominent local fund managers. l Index provider: IIC. l Investors: ABF 2 will eventually be open to retail or institutional investors, both within and outside the EMEAP. l Administrator of EMEAP investments: BIS. 31

Restricted ABF 2 broadens both investment menu and investor base l ABF 2 brings new investment vehicles to local bond markets. q Five of the eight single-market funds are expected to be exchangelisted, and another may join their ranks soon. l PAIF is relatively low-cost, low-denomination and transparent, appealing to a broad spectrum of retail and institutional investors. q PAIF is passively managed – leaving open the possibility of active management for other asset managers. q PAIF allows for diversification both into and across Asia in a simple and cost-efficient manner. 32

Restricted Dynamic incentives for further reforms l Market weights determining ABF portfolio allocations will be reviewed annually. l Market openness is the single most important adjustment factor in market weights. l Portfolio allocation for a particular market may adjust upward upon further deregulation. l Incentives to continue reforms are thus built into the mechanism of ABF 2 annual portfolio weighting reviews. 33

Restricted V. How has ABF 2 performed so far? l ABF 2 was first launched in March 2005. l So far, four of the nine-fund family have been listed. l Sizable investment from outside the EMEAP. l Liquidity varies across markets and over time. 34

Restricted The launch of ABF 2 l ABF 2 was fully launched by June 2005: • EMEAP seed money was invested in the nine funds. l Four of the ABF 2 family have been listed as ETF: • The Hong Kong Index Fund (Hong Kong, 21 June) • The Pan Asia Index Fund (Hong Kong, 7 July, Lo. F) • The Malaysia Index Fund (Kuala Lumpur, 18 July) • The Singapore Index Fund (Singapore, 31 August) l Work under way to list two other funds as ETF. 35

Restricted Outside investment into ABF 2 l The four listed funds are open to non-EMEAP investors. l Interest shown by both institutional and retail investors. l All four listed funds registered growth (as of Sept 2005): • The PAIF: 13% • The HK Index Fund: 44% • The MY Index Fund: 26% • The SG Index Fund: 36% 36

Restricted ABF 2 trading l Liquidity in the secondary markets for the four listed funds was good initially … l … but trading decline somewhat lately. l Trading activities vary across markets. l One way to measure market liquidity is the tightness of bid-ask spreads. l The PAIF and HK Index Funds appear to be deeper and more liquid by this score. 37

Restricted Bid-ask spread of listed ABF 2 funds (% of bid-ask average) Source: Bloomberg 38

Restricted Progress in ABF 2 l Net asset value declined by 2% since launch … l … mostly due to changing interest rate and currency cycles: • Higher local interest rates (ID, HK, KR and TH) • Weaker regional currencies (ID, KR, PH and TH) • The July renminbi move was initially a boost to the PAIF • US interest rate cycle and dollar strength 39

Restricted PAIF Closing NAV/unit (US$) Source: State Street Global Asset Management. 40

Restricted PAIF weighted average yield vs. yield on comparable US Treasury Sources: Bloomberg; SSg. A. 41

Restricted Summary l ABF 2 is a learning-by-doing exercise by EMEAP central banks through actually setting up bond funds investing in local -currency bond markets. l ABF 2 initially invests $2 bn international reserves pooled from 11 EMEAP central banks in 8 EMEAP markets and eventually will be open to all other investors. l ABF 2 has helped already reduce market impediments and built a mechanism for further market reforms. l The four listed funds of the ABF 2 family so far have grown in size, with liquidity varying across markets. 42

Restricted If later you have questions or comments, please email guonan. ma@bis. org Thank you! 43