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Residential Broadband Group A John Chuang Tushar Dani Ilin Tsai Ilya Bagrak Alexandra Fedyukova Residential Broadband Group A John Chuang Tushar Dani Ilin Tsai Ilya Bagrak Alexandra Fedyukova

Residential Broadband n n n Introduction Market and competition Technology Economics Policy and regulation Residential Broadband n n n Introduction Market and competition Technology Economics Policy and regulation Conclusion

What is Residential Broadband n n n Technologies that provide a high-bandwidth connection to What is Residential Broadband n n n Technologies that provide a high-bandwidth connection to the Internet for residential consumers Replacement for the now fading residential dial-up technology Entirely new online experience Ø Ø Ø Watching a video stream, Downloading music in seconds, Video and voice chats Real-time gaming This presentation is limited to US residential Broadband market

Growth and Penetration n Fast growth, 11% increase per year Reached more than 50% Growth and Penetration n Fast growth, 11% increase per year Reached more than 50% penetration already across internet households Several competing broadband service providers n Telephone companies, wireless carriers, cable TV service providers and satellite providers

Players DSL n n SBC Verizon Bellsouth Quest New technologies: Cable n n n Players DSL n n SBC Verizon Bellsouth Quest New technologies: Cable n n n Comcast Time Warner Brothers Cox Charter Cablevision • Wi-Fi (Google cloud in San Francisco, hot spots) • Satellite Signals • Wi-Max • BPL (broadband over power lines)

Market segments & Prices: 1 n Competition for Broadband subscribers is bifurcating n n Market segments & Prices: 1 n Competition for Broadband subscribers is bifurcating n n n DSL companies primarily target low price segment n n n Low end emphasizing price High end emphasizing speed Started penetrating into high end market, Verizon’s Fi. OS (15 mbps) Cable companies have elected to stay exclusively at the high end Bundling as a way to reduce churn rate & attract new customers n Triple and even quadruple play

Market segments & Prices: 2 Market segments & Prices: 2

DSL Technology n n Limited distance to central office (CO) Dedicated line from CO DSL Technology n n Limited distance to central office (CO) Dedicated line from CO to home Asymmetric flow Typical speeds up to 1. 5 Mbits/s downstream

Cable Technology n n n Shared lines to the nearest splitter Generally higher speeds Cable Technology n n n Shared lines to the nearest splitter Generally higher speeds Reaches more households since distance limitation is removed Typical offering 4 Mbits/s Last Mile advantage

Future Technology n Wi. Max n n n Metropolitan Area Networks (MANs) 3 -5 Future Technology n Wi. Max n n n Metropolitan Area Networks (MANs) 3 -5 miles range, no direct line of sight required 2 Mbits/s practical limit Can use existing cell towers Broadband over Power Lines (BPL) n n More pervasive infrastructure, but requires extra equipment Up to 2. 7 Mbits/s Superimposing analog signal over AC Small deployments in operation (e. g. Manassas, Virginia 10 MBits/s for $30. 00 a month)

Porter's Five Forces Model • Broadband over power lines • Wi-Fi free internet (Google) Porter's Five Forces Model • Broadband over power lines • Wi-Fi free internet (Google) • Municipal utility internet • Wi-Max New entrants • Large number of equipment suppliers are available Suppliers e. g. Nortel, Lucent, Cisco, Nokia etc. • Limited companies actually own network lines, and heavily depend on network owners Cable and DSL Co. • “cut-throat” competition • Trend to provide a bundle of services • Cable companies converging from video to telephony - Cox, Comcast • Telecom companies converging from telephony to video - SBC, Bellsouth, AOL Substitutes • TV, Music • Newspapers • Telephone etc Source: Michael E. Porter Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors, (The Free Press, 1980) Buyers • Broadband as a Commodity. • Some people have 3 to 4 providers to buy from • Tend to buy bundled services • Switching costs are low, unless annual contracts

Policy and Regulation Existing situation n n US is 16 th in the world Policy and Regulation Existing situation n n US is 16 th in the world in broadband penetration (ITU 2005 report) Why is US so far behind? n n n “monopolistic structure, entrenched management, and political power of incumbents” failure of effective policy and regulation for broadband industry (e. g. , FCC regulation on spectrum allocation policy) Legislative tug-of-war n n Preserving Innovation in Telecom Act of 2005 Community Broadband Act of 2005

Policy and Regulation n n Need for national broadband strategy Continue to encourage highly Policy and Regulation n n Need for national broadband strategy Continue to encourage highly successful open access model in Japan n Regulations for emerging technologies n n n competitors may use existing residential telephone infrastructure for a modest fee competition and innovation cheap, high-speed broadband access FCC: better allocation of wireless spectrum Municipal Wi. Fi usage Mixture of legislative, regulatory, and investment initiatives

Conclusion n Market & Players n n n Technology n n New technologies such Conclusion n Market & Players n n n Technology n n New technologies such as BPL, Wi-Max, Satellite are emerging, but are not great threat to existing Cable & DSL Economics n n n Broadband will replace dial-up The Battle is still pretty much between Cable and DSL companies Bundling as a way to keep existing and attract new customers Segments based on Price and Speed Regulation n Need for national broadband strategy, open access, economic incentives

Conclusion n Cable companies have advantage due to their infrastructure and “quadruple play” n Conclusion n Cable companies have advantage due to their infrastructure and “quadruple play” n They will be top player in coming years n No winner take all conditions, Cable companies, DSL companies, and new technologies will co-exists

Thank you Clap & Questions Thank you Clap & Questions