Research in Post Conflict Nations MRIA Presentation June

Research in Post Conflict Nations MRIA Presentation June 18, 2008 These slides are part of a Navigator presentation and are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary.

Introduction Case studies West Bank Gaza Kosovo Challenges lessons for home and away Overview Research & training using projects as a teaching tool Emerging tools 2 Questions & answers

Research. Strategy. Results. Navigator 3 Research-based strategy firm that works with companies, organizations and governments to solve corporate and public affairs challenges. At Navigator, we believe research is fundamental to a winning result.

The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) a non-profit organization working to strengthen and expand democracy worldwide Our Partner works with democrats in every region of the world to build political and civic organizations and safeguard elections 3000+ employees in 60+ countries around the world 4 chaired by former US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright

Post conflict communities have taught us lessons. . . about reaching hard to access communities with severe socioeconomic challenges breaking down barriers of culture and language Our Belief innovative methodologies for quality control . . . that could apply to Canada 5 Aboriginal communities, new Canadians

"The increasing number of surveys and their frequency, I'd argue hasn't translated into a high quality of good understanding' of Muslims attitude and opinions. " The Environment David Pollock Washington Institute for Near East Policy Toronto Star, June 15 2008 6

"Autocratic regimes in [the Middle East] sometimes lean on surveyors and respondents to yield the results they want. " The Environment 7 Prof. Mahmoud Eid University of Ottawa Toronto Star, June 15 2008 10 years of field experience in Egypt

at the height of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal in 2006, U. S. political researcher Stan Greenberg was hired to do nationwide sampling by an agency of the U. S. government. His local staff were kidnapped by the guerillas The Environment 8 the ransom demand? his polling data. they paid, but only with summaries, not the original data or analysis

Case Study: West Bank/Gaza 9

test Palestinian leadership ballot test preferences for PLC and presidential elections Sample Research Objectives WBG explore legitimacy of PA, emergency government, Hamas implications of Hamas takeover of Gaza 10 strengths/weaknesses of Fateh and Hamas

The study 24 months, $750, 000 monthly quantitative, quarterly qualitative Most recent report study of Palestinian Youth conducted in May/June 2008 West Bank/Gaza Study Quantitative survey of 1200 respondents Qualitative 16 focus groups 11

Sample completion very difficult, especially in Gaza Respondent confidence peer approved response Methodological Challenges 12 Field reporting issues quality and speed

Only 17% employed 25% male, 8% female, Unemployment challenges 57% say 'few jobs’ 27% say discrimination 70% Politically inactive Findings [Quant] 13 47% do not read newspaper 43% do not use Internet 61% intend to vote 60% Connected to education 32% high school 23% university 5% other

88% Opposed to religion in politics Findings [Quant] 14 73% Opposed to politics in the mosque

Deeper examination of reasons for political alienation, potential motivating messages Focus Groups [Qual] Study of possible alternative communications channels, role models, and message delivery Consideration of believable 'life choices' messages 15

To be useful research needs to operate within a long-term structural framework Regular sweeps of the same audiences are essential to track a fast moving environment Discoveries 16 Quality assessment requires a professional accountable to NDI as well as a supporting local supplier Reporting to local partners on a timely and transparent basis is essential to credibility and acceptance

Case Study: Kosovo 17

Political party standings Favourability of leaders Sample Research Objectives: Kosovo Identify potential election issues Viability of various coalitions Final status of Kosovo Reconciliation 18

Annual qualitative review of issues, leaders and institutions Election year quantitative issues and leader surveys 2003 -2008 Kosovo Study 2005 & 2008 National election years No comparable study of public opinion 19 providers work for embassies, packaged goods and parties but do not publish

Data collection reports of fraud in previous studies perception of bias with local providers Ethnic divide Methodological Challenges 20 separate research project design for Albanian and Serbian communities Study timing significant international events impacting local public opinion happening on weekly basis

Intention to vote dropping turn out dropping 7 -10% each election President’s popularity overwhelming his party’s support decreasing Status quo will not hold Findings [Quant] significant tensions brewing, positive attitudes toward international presence softening Reconciliation 21 no identifiable space for agreement on future status

Leaders seen as corrupt but retained high favourability based on other criteria Corruption is local & int’l small scale in schools and hospitals due to underfunding, large scale by foreigners Findings [Qual] History of conflict role in the war dictates national importance Economics 22 the key to progress and reconciliation

Political party support frozen international administration means elections are ‘not real’ Massive change afoot significant urbanization and changing demography altering the values of the state(let) Discoveries Final status overwhelms no space for domestic issues with Final Status looming, political leaders off the hook 23 Quality control everything is political in Kosovo

The environment is politically unstable ? when the personal security risk is high ? when families and individuals might be displaced ? How do you do research when. . . 24 when national issues trump local and personal concerns ? when clients, media and society are skeptical of your research ?

Quality control coping with no street addresses, bad phone numbers, long collection periods and difficult samples Quantitative Technical Challenges finding partners and quality control measures to protect your data from collection to analysis Qualitative 25 identifying facilities, recruiters and moderators who can support your project

Language Cultural norms difficulty of dialogue, transparency Local custom and practice Project Challenges gender, clan/community, ethnicity hierarchy group dynamics Bias 26 researcher’s bias, actual or perceived

Donor strong point of view Political parties and government(s) hyper-sensitivity to criticism NGO’s, local media Audience(s) 27 multiple users with diverse agendas Society few established norms for debate introduce issues important to society, but not debated by elite(s)

Make key audiences your partners political leadership, NGO’s, media Observers Research as Training 28 to protect against bias to encourage the use of the data independently Training what are the limits of the tools ? how can they be used ?

Low cost + broad access Online Facebook in Egypt SMS Emerging Tools election observation tool dominant mobile phone presence dynamic social network Email 29 common use of ‘free mail’ access to IM and telephony applications

Lessons Learned 30

The truth hurts do they want to know ? Quality costs time & money redundancy and direct int’l participation needs to be built into your project plan 3. Scope & Scale Lessons for ‘Away’ 31 you will need to set a long baseline, use multiple methodologies and accommodate unusually large research objectives 4. Reporting is teaching role for media, NGO’s and clients

Special communities need a special approach balance of external and internal research team Training has a benefit Lessons for ‘Home’ improved confidence in results and the tool & a higher degree of ownership in the findings Sample design homogeneity of lifestyle over region or other cohort 32

Chad Rogers British Colonial Building, Third Floor Eight Wellington St. E. , Toronto, Canada M 5 E 1 C 5 direct 416 -642 -5000 email crogers@navltd. com fax 416 -642 -6435 web www. navltd. com Research | Strategy | Results