Renewable Energy: Overview Wim C. Turkenburg Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation Utrecht University The Netherlands Unicamp, Campinas, Brazil 19 February 2002
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
Renewable Energy & WEA • Chapter 5: Energy Resources (Hans-Holger Rogner) • Chapter 7: Renewable Energy Technologies (Wim C. Turkenburg) Lead authors chapter 7: - Jos Beurskens - André Faaij - Peter Fraenkel - Ingvar Fridleifsson - Erik Lysen - Davis Mills - Jose Roberto Moreira - Lars Nilsson - Anton Schaap - Wim Sinke
Advantages Renewables • • • Improving access to energy sources Diversifying energy carriers Balancing the use of fossil fuels Reducing dependence on imported fuels Reducing pollution from conventional energy systems • Suited to small and large scale applications
Disadvantages Renewables • • Technologies often capital intense Energy costs often not (yet) competitive Diffuse energy source: spatial requirements Environmental concerns (hydro, wind, biomass) • Intermittent character (wind, solar)
Present contribution Renewables World primary energy consumption in 1998 _______________________________________________ Fossil fuels: - oil - natural gas - coal 142 EJ 85 EJ 93 EJ 320 EJ (80%) _______________________________________________ Renewables: - large hydro - traditional biomass - ‘new’ renewables 9 EJ 38 EJ 9 EJ 56 EJ (14%) _______________________________________________ Nuclear: 26 EJ (6%) 402 EJ (100%) _______________________________________________ Total:
Technical Potential Renewables Supply in 1998 Biomass Wind Solar Hydro Geothermal Marine 45 ± 10 0. 07 0. 06 9. 3 1. 8 - EJ EJ EJ Technical potential 200 -500 70 -180 1, 500 -50, 000 50 5, 000 n. e. EJ/y EJ/y
Biomass energy conversion Sources: - plantations - forests residues - agricultural residues - municipal waste - animal manure - etcetera
Biomass energy conversion • Production of heat: improved stoves, advanced domestic heating systems, CHP. • Production of electricity: (co-)combustion, CHP, gasification (BIG-CC, engines), digestion (gas engines). • Production of fuels: ethanol, biogas, bio-oil, bio-crude, esters from oilseeds, methanol, hydrogen, hydrocarbons. Produced by: extraction, fermentation, digestion, pyrolysis, hydrolysis, gasification and synthesis.
Status biomass energy • Cost biomass from plantation already favourable in some developing countries (1. 5 -2 $/GJ). • Electricity production costs of 0. 05 -0. 15 $/k. Wh. • New technology (BIG-CC) needed to reduce electricity production costs to 0. 04 $/k. Wh. • Advanced technologies to produce bio-fuels (methanol, hydrogen, ethanol) at competitive cost (6 -10 $/GJ).
Biomass energy development strategies • More experience with, and improvement of, the production of energy crops. • Creating markets for biomass. • Development and demonstration of key conversion technologies. • Poly-generation of biomass products and energy carriers from biomass. • Policy measures like internalizing external costs and benefits.
Modern wind energy
Modern wind farms some key figures • On land wind farms: capacity varying from 1 MW to 100 MW (Spain even 1000 MW) • Typical ex-factory price : US$ 350 to 400 per m² rotor swept area • Installed power varying from 400 W/m² (low wind speed area) to 550 W/m² (high wind speed area) • Present most applied turbines: 0. 6 MW to 1. 5 MW (or approx. 43 m Ø to 60 m Ø).
Market development
Market development some key figures • Total installed power 23, 300 MW (end 2001, world). • 82% of power in only 5 countries (D, DK, E, USA, India) • Growth during last 5 years: > 30 %/year. • ‘Progress’ factor: 80 %. • Energy pay back time: 0. 25 - 0. 5 years. • Technical life time: 20 years.
Future development wind • • • Wind turbines become larger. Wind turbines will have fewer components. Special offshore designs. 10 percent grid penetration maybe around 2020. Installed capacity in 2030 could be 1, 000 – 2, 000 GW. • Potential development energy production costs: 0. 05 –> 0. 03 $/k. Wh (+ 0. 01 $/k. Wh for storage).
Solar PV stand-alone systems • • consumer products telecom leisure water pumping lighting & signalling rural electrification etc. Solar Home System (Bolivia) PV-pumped cattle drinking trough (NL)
Grid-connected PV systems • building- & infrastructure-integrated PV – roofs – facades – sound barriers – etc. • ground-based power plants “City of the Sun” 50, 000 m 2 PV (NL) PV sound barrier (NL) “PV gold” (Japan)
PV market growth shipments per year (MW) 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 3 4 4. 7 5 4. 6 4. 4 5. 6 6. 35 9. 75 9. 4 18. 7 20. 5 23. 42 Europe 6. 7 7. 9 10. 2 13. 4 16. 55 21. 7 20. 1 18. 8 30. 4 33. 5 40 60. 66 Japan 12. 8 14. 2 16. 8 19. 9 18. 8 16. 7 16. 5 16. 4 21. 2 35 49 80 128. 6 USA 11. 1 14. 8 17. 1 18. 1 22. 44 25. 64 34. 75 38. 85 51 53. 7 60. 8 74. 97 Total 33. 6 40. 2 46. 5 55. 4 57. 9 60. 09 69. 44 77. 6 88. 6 125. 8 154. 9 201. 3 287. 65 ROW
Status Solar PV • Conversion efficiencies of PV modules ranging from 6 -9% (a-Si) to 13 -15% (x-Si). • Many PV technologies under development. • Increase PV shipments (50 MW in 1991; 150 MW in 1998; 280 MW in 2000). • Continuous reduction investment costs (learning rate ~20%). • > 500. 000 Solar Home Systems installed in last 10 years.
Potential development Solar PV • Investment costs grid-connected PV-systems may come down from 5 -10 $/W –> 1 $/W. • Energy payback time may come down from 3 -9 years –> 1 -2 years (or less). • Electricity production costs may come down from 0. 3 -2. 5 $/k. Wh –> 0. 05 -0. 25 $/k. Wh. • PV can play a major role in rural electrification.
Future of PV: some conclusions • PV technically sufficiently mature for largescale use. • large room for improvement in cost (x 1/5) and performance (x 2). • major contribution (EJ, CO 2) from PV requires long-term approach, but: • great commercial, economic, and development opportunities.
Solar Thermal Electricity • Production of high temperature heat, using concentrating systems, to generate electricity • Applicable in sunnier regions • All technologies rely on four basic elements: - collector / concentrator - receiver - transport / storage - power conversion
Solar Thermal Electricity Single Axis Tracking: Through system - commercial available since 1980’s - current energy costs 0. 12 -0. 18 $/k. Wh - potential energy costs 0. 06 $/k. Wh
Solar Thermal Electricity Two Axis Tracking: Solar Tower - started 1980’s, several built - Illustration: Solar One 10 MW plant (Barstow, California, 1982 -1988) - Solar Two recently demonstrated molten salt heat storage, delivering power to the grid on a regular basis
Solar Thermal Electricity Two Axis Tracking: dish / heat engine power plant - several prototypes operated successfully in last 10 years. - size prototypes: ~ 400 m 2; 10 k. We. - 2 -3 MWe dish plant under development, attached to existing power plant.
STE: some conclusions • Installed STE capacity about 400 MWe (1 TWh/y) may grow to 2000 MWe in 2010. • Solar fields can be integrated into fossil fuel power plants at relatively low cost. • STE conversion efficiency may increase from 13 -16% in near term to 16 -20% in long term. • Electricity production costs may come down from 0. 12 -0. 18 $/k. Wh today to 0. 04 -0. 10 $/k. Wh in long term.
Low Temperature Solar Energy • World’s commercial low-temperature heat consumption: 50 EJ/y for space heating and 10 EJ/y for hot water production. • Low and medium temperature process heat consumption (up to 200 °C): 40 EJ/y. • Demand can be met partially with solar energy. • Mismatch between demand supply requires heat storage.
Low Temperature Solar Energy Solar Domestic Hot Water system (SDHW) - Collector area per system 2 -6 m 2. - Energy cost 0. 03 -0. 25 $/k. Wh. - Solar fraction 50 -100%. - Collector area installed is about 30, 000 m 2, equivalent to 18, 000 MW, generating 50 PJ heat per year.
Low Temperature Solar Energy Large water heating system - Around one-tenth of total installed area. - Wide spread use in swimming pools, hotels, hospitals, … - Cost per k. Wh somewhat less than for SDHW systems
Low Temp. Solar Energy Technologies Other options: • • Solar space heating (solar combi-systems). District heating (central collector area). Heat Pumps (tens of millions installed). Solar cooling (poor economics today). Solar cooking (over 450, 000 box-cookers in India). Solar crop drying (over 100, 000 m 2 installed). Passive solar energy use (new building design).
Hydro-electricity Salto Caxias hydro plant. More than 30% of total investment budget allocated to 26 socio-environmental projects
Electricity from hydropower Large-scale systems: - 640 GW installed PRIMARY SOURCES OF ENERGY FOR WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION - 2, 510 TWh/year _______________________ Small-scale systems: - 23 GW installed - 90 TWh/year Figures 1997 Coal Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil based
Hydropower: some conclusions • Production may increase to 6000 TWh in 2050. • Technologies available to reduce social and ecological impacts. • Hydropower plants are capital intensive. • Large scale systems: mature technology, unlikely to advance. • Electricity production costs 0. 02 -0. 10 $/k. Wh. • Additional advantages: operating reserve, spinning reserve, voltage control, cold start capability.
Geothermal Energy • Used for bathing and washing for thousands of years. • Used commercially for some 70 years • High temperature fields in more than 80 countries. • Low temperature resources found in most countries.
Geothermal electricity production Some conclusions: • 45 TWh produced in 1998 • Electricity production cost: ~ 0. 04 $/k. Wh • Efficiency power plant: 5 -20 % • Accessible potential: 12, 000 TWh/year • Annual growth installed capacity: ~ 4 % Installed capacity in 1998: 8, 240 MW USA: 2, 850 Philippines: 1, 848 Italy: 769 Mexico: 743 Indonesia: 590 Japan: 530 New Zealand: 345 Iceland: 140 MW MW
Direct use of geothermal heat: some conclusions • • • Utilization in 1998: 40 TWh Production cost: 0. 005 -0. 05 $/k. Wh Conversion efficiency: 50 -70 % Accessible resource base: 600. 000 EJ Annual growth installed capacity: ~ 6% New challenge: geothermal heat pumps
Marine energy technologies • • • Tidal barrage energy Wave energy Tidal / marine currents Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) Other options
Potential contribution renewables
Potential contribution renewables Shell scenario
Potential contribution renewables Potential contribution in second half of the 21 th century: 20 - 50 % of total energy consumption. Transition to renewables-based energy systems relies on: - Successful development of renewable energy technologies that become increasingly competitive. - Removal of barriers to the deployment of renewables. - New policy instruments to speed-up the diffusion. - Political will to internalise environmental (external) costs that permanently increase fossil fuel prices.
Policy options: cost-buy-down and dissemination • • Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Concessions Green electricity market Carbon dioxide tax Subsidies with “sunset” clauses Retail financing Clean Development Mechanism
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS
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