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Regional Air Access Presentation to NESTRANS February 2013 Laurie Price Aviation Consultant Regional Air Access Presentation to NESTRANS February 2013 Laurie Price Aviation Consultant

The issues 1) Air access to Heathrow. Implication to: • Help the NE Scotland The issues 1) Air access to Heathrow. Implication to: • Help the NE Scotland economy • UK economy • The threat to regional links 2) Airport Charges and the CAA remit: • Heathrow • Gatwick • Implication to travellers, the regions and NE Scotland 3) The EU role and UK policy 4) Night movement policy 5) The Davies Airports Commission

Heathrow Movement Allocation Arrivals Summer (Typical Week) Source: Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) Heathrow Movement Allocation Arrivals Summer (Typical Week) Source: Airport Coordination Limited (ACL)

Heathrow Movement Allocation Departures Summer (Typical Week) Source: Airport Coordination Limited (ACL) Heathrow Movement Allocation Departures Summer (Typical Week) Source: Airport Coordination Limited (ACL)

LGW – Summer 2013 LGW – Summer 2013

Df. T estimates of key airport capacity Capacity Available: Heathrow 4000 ATMs - under Df. T estimates of key airport capacity Capacity Available: Heathrow 4000 ATMs - under 1% Gatwick 15, 000 ATMs - circa 6% Source : Hansard

London airport ranking – by type of airline operation Legacy 1. Heathrow 2. Gatwick London airport ranking – by type of airline operation Legacy 1. Heathrow 2. Gatwick 3. Stansted 4. Luton LCC / Leisure 1. Gatwick 2. Stansted 3. Luton Primary Connectivity = London Heathrow

Market - Total terminal passengers at UK airports 1971 - 2011 1995 Introduction of Market - Total terminal passengers at UK airports 1971 - 2011 1995 Introduction of Low-Cost Airlines 2003 Iraq War / SARS 1985/86 Libya/Chernobyl 1983 Europe Deregulation 1979 US Deregulation 1988 Lockerbie 1974 Fuel Crisis 2001 Terrorist Attacks 1991 Gulf War 2008/9 Economic Crisis 1982 Falklands War 1977 Bermuda II 1981 Fuel Crisis + Recession Source: CAA Airport Statistics , OPEC 8

Terminal Passengers at UK Airports Annual Growth Rates 1971 -2011 1985/86 Libya/Chernobyl 1983 Europe Terminal Passengers at UK Airports Annual Growth Rates 1971 -2011 1985/86 Libya/Chernobyl 1983 Europe Deregulation 1988 Lockerbie 1979 US Deregulation 1995 Introduction of Low-Cost Airlines 2003 Iraq War / SARS 1977 Bermuda II 1974 Fuel Crisis 1982 Falklands War 1981 Fuel Crisis + Recession 1991 Gulf War 2001 Terrorist Attacks Note: Historic oil price shown in US$ and the exchange rates between USD and GBP were not considered 9 Source: CAA Airport Statistics , OPEC

Global propensity to fly UK Source: Airbus 10 Global propensity to fly UK Source: Airbus 10

Department for Transport: Constrained Demand Forecast Latest Traffic Projections : 2030 320 M – Department for Transport: Constrained Demand Forecast Latest Traffic Projections : 2030 320 M – 345 m. 2050 480 m – 520 m Source: Df. T UK Air Passenger Demand CO 2 forecasts

Aberdeen London Links • • Heathrow – 8 services a day - BA Gatwick Aberdeen London Links • • Heathrow – 8 services a day - BA Gatwick – 2 services a day – EZY London City – 3 per day (Mon – Fri) – BA Luton – 1 per day - EZY Only the Heathrow link offers the frequency and global connectivity that Aberdeen needs to sustains its economic development Before Virgin competing service of 3 per day introduced which will reduce BA frequency. Virgin service has only 6 year slot protection at Heathrow

London Airports achieve the highest passengers per movement in Europe Passengers per ATM at London Airports achieve the highest passengers per movement in Europe Passengers per ATM at major European airports 150 London Heathrow 140 Paris CDG 130 Frankfurt Amsterdam Passengers per ATM 120 Madrid Munich 110 Rome FCO Istanbul 100 Barcelona London Gatwick 90 Paris ORY Moscow DME 80 Zurich London Stansted 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Achieved at the expense of regional air service links and frequency

Lack of Capacity in London Source: Mott Mac. Donald Analysis of Df. T forecasts Lack of Capacity in London Source: Mott Mac. Donald Analysis of Df. T forecasts

Runway capacity: London and UK regions • London has insufficient runway capacity to meet Runway capacity: London and UK regions • London has insufficient runway capacity to meet demand – 6 operational runways – 130 million passengers – 21. 7 million passengers per runway • Regions have excess runway capacity to meet demand – 23 operational runways – 88 million passengers – 3. 8 million passengers per runway • But peripheral regions need London access, specifically to the Hub Source: Analysis of CAA Statistics,

Slot shortage implication to UK regional links • 20 UK regional points lost access Slot shortage implication to UK regional links • 20 UK regional points lost access to Heathrow in last 30 years • Frequency and competition on other UK regional routes to Heathrow reduced • Only 7 UK points served to Heathrow – Leeds Bradford precarious. • All remaining regional routes into Heathrow vulnerable to service / frequency reduction due slot shortage and increased airport charges • Using scarce slot for an A 380 is 4+ times more valuable than A 319 • Aberdeen very valuable for long haul connectivity and yield – Middle East and Houston key connections • Government refusal to use EC Public Service Obligation protection • Plymouth Airport closed due lack of PSO. Other airports and routes vulnerable • 40+ French domestic routes slots protected by PSO

Airport Charges 1 • UK major airport charges regulated by CAA. • But subject Airport Charges 1 • UK major airport charges regulated by CAA. • But subject to Government Policy : “Better not Bigger” • Charges regulated against set criteria and allowing Return on Investment to efficient operator • CAA allowed: – 62% increase in Gatwick charges – 3 x Inflation increase at Heathrow – Minimum per passenger fee £ 22 by 2014. Add APD means £ 35 of charges plus the fare to ABZ! • Fly. Be already pulled off routes due increased charges including ABZ – LGW. • Fly. Be blame current losses on APD and airport charges

Airport Charges 2 • At Heathrow short haul / UK regional passengers paying increased Airport Charges 2 • At Heathrow short haul / UK regional passengers paying increased charges to pay for facilities terminal facilities when they need runways and guaranteed connectivity • CAA accept that following Government Policy means they discriminate against regional access • CAA has no remit to encourage or recognise air service impact on: – Economic development – Employment – Peripherality

EU Aviation Policy and Regional Access • • • EU responsible for setting broad EU Aviation Policy and Regional Access • • • EU responsible for setting broad policy including aviation and the regions Economically, EC keen to see greater economic and social convergence between periphery and centre Key issues for air transport and the regions The Airports Package and EC Slot Regulation Slot regulation currently being debated in European Parliament Debate over: – “Use it or lose it “ percentage of use proposals – Length of slot series Possible opportunity for Regional lobby? UK odd man out in Europe in not using PSO protection for regional services to key hub airports EC has confirmed that PSO protection is “Airport to Airport” not City to City as Df. T has maintained; fundamental to ABZ connectivity

Df. T Night Movement Consultation • • Df. T Issued 70 question consultation on Df. T Night Movement Consultation • • Df. T Issued 70 question consultation on Night movement policy in January 2013 Deadline for response 22 April 2013 Focus on Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted and impact of night flights on sleep disturbance Will establish policy for night flying, feed into broader aviation policy and Davies Commission Initial response from industry and of relevance to NESTRANS • Royal Mail and DHL need night flights to meet their service guarantees • The Royal Mail used to operate from Gatwick but were forced out due to noise. • The same could happen at Stansted, if the offset for more runways is a reduction in night time operations. • The key is access time from the sorting centres in London. Move further out and the cut off and delivery times and guarantees worsen. • Using East Midlands would add an hour both ways. • Serious implication to Scottish business and commerce if night flight regime changed

Davies Airports Commission – Questions on Regional Connectivity Impacts on access to aviation connectivity Davies Airports Commission – Questions on Regional Connectivity Impacts on access to aviation connectivity • Changes in access to aviation from key business districts and other areas reliant on international connectivity. • Changes in access to aviation from major population centres, and areas of expected population growth. • Improvements in access to international connectivity from areas previously poorly served. • Changes in the overall numbers of people and businesses with access to international aviation services by public transport and by private transport. • Impacts upon internal connectivity within the UK, and consequent access to international aviation services, including specific social and economic impacts on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Source: Airports Commission Discussion Paper February 2013 Page 19

Possible actions by NESTRANS • Brief MPs, MEPs and MSPs and Lords • Seek Possible actions by NESTRANS • Brief MPs, MEPs and MSPs and Lords • Seek parliamentary questions / debates on – Air Services access to the hub and slots – PSO protection for UK regions – Airport charges and implication to regions • Use EC Transport Commission contact / visit to influence airport policy at EU level and to pressurise UK Df. T. • Respond to Df. T Night Noise Consultation • Invite Sir Howard Davies to visit NE Scotland the Highlands to see problem at first hand register that NESTRANS will respond to the Commission Consultation • Consider affiliation with Airports Regions Conference to gain European peripheral region support