Red Balloon Project Constant Change: The Challenging Context of The 21 st Century University of Missouri, St. Louis George L. Mehaffy 13 November 2014
Red Balloon Project In fifty years, if not much sooner, half of the roughly 4, 500 colleges and universities now operating in the United States will have ceased to exist. “The End of the University as We Know It. ” Nathan Harden. The American Interest. January/February 2013. http: //www. the american interest. com/article. cfm? piece=1352
Red Balloon Project
Red Balloon Project Technology Changes Everything
Red Balloon Project Think about the impact of technology: On journalism… On photography On the music business… On the book publishing/selling business… The Long Tail. Chris Anderson (Hyperion, 2006)
Red Balloon Project One of technology’s impact on business: store closings Abercrombie and Fitch 180 Barnes and Noble 223 Aeropostale 175 JC Penney 33 Radio Shack 1, 100 Staples 225 Sears 500 Family Dollar 370 By 2015 Over 9 years Next few years By mid 2014 Just announced By 2015 Going Forward 2014 http: //247 wallst. com/special report/2014/03/12/retailers closing the most stores/
Red Balloon Project Robert Darnton Four Great Information Ages • Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4, 000 BC • Moveable type • Mass steam powered presses, Industrial Age • Internet, after 1993 Now You See It: Attention and the Future of Learning. Cathy N. Davidson, http: //chancellor. ucdavis. edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium 11 12/ccvol 2_cathy_davidson. pdf
Red Balloon Project Eight Challenges to Public Higher Education
Red Balloon Project 1. State Expenditures for Higher Education (as a percentage of all expenditures: local, state, federal, personal) 1975: 60% 2010: 34% But huge variations in states: From 1980 to 2011 Colorado 69 % decline Minnesota 56 % decline North Dakota 1 % increase Wyoming 3 % increase Based on the trends since 1980, average state fiscal support for higher education will reach zero by 2059. State Funding: A Race to the Bottom. Thomas G. Mortenson http: //www. acenet. edu/the presidency/columns and features/Pages/state funding a race to the bottom. aspx
Red Balloon Project 2. Cost Model
350% 300% Cumulative growth since 1988 Red Balloon Project The Rising Cost of College, 1988 -2008 (based on increases in current dollar amounts) 250% Public Four-Year Private Four-Year Public Two-Year 200% Median Family Income CPI-U 150% Prescription Drugs Household Energy 100% New Vehicle 50% 0% 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Sources: College Board, “Trends in College Pricing, 2008”; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009, www. bls. gov ; U. S. Census, Current Population Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project. Courtesy Jane Wellman
Red Balloon Project Simple Numbers: Median inflation adjusted 7% household income, 2006 – 2011 Tuition at public four year 18% Institutions, 2006 – 2011 http: //www. nytimes. com/2013/02/01/opinion/my valuable cheap college degree. html? _r=0 Public higher education – an historic threshold: Students about to pay a higher percentage than the state. 2012 – net tuition 47% of public colleges’ costs. http: //chronicle. com/article/Students. States Near a/137709/
Red Balloon Project 3. Business Model Higher education is a set of cross subsidies: graduate education subsidized by undergraduate; upper division subsidized by lower division Jane Wellman, Delta Project http: //www. deltacostproject. org/ We also have cross subsidies by disciplines.
Red Balloon Project Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public four Year Averages, 4 state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) % of all credits taken Lower Division 36% % of total spending on instruction 23% Avg weighted cost/credit 1. 00 Upper Division 48% 44% 1. 42 Grad 1 12% 23% 2. 88 Grad 2 4% 9% 4. 00 100% 1. 55 SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman
Red Balloon Project NCES, BPS, undergraduates only Courtesy Jane Wellman
Red Balloon Project Moody’s Inventor Services Report January 23, 2012 “Tuition levels are at a tipping point” Higher education must innovate to remain viable • Collaborations between colleges • More centralized management • More efficient use of facilities • Reduction in number of tenured faculty • Geographic and demographic expansion of course offerings http: //chronicle. com/article content/130434/
Red Balloon Project Moody’s Report, August 2013 In 2012: • enrollment at public colleges was essentially flat • revenues grew less than 2 percent • expenses increased more than 3 percent “…political pressure to limit tuition increases and little expectation for big improvements in state spending mean that public colleges will have to continue to cut costs for the foreseeable future. ” http: //chronicle. com/blogs/bottomline/moodys report forecasts a gloomy future for public universities/
Red Balloon Project 4. Evidence of Success 2006 American Institutes for Research (AIR) 20% of U. S. college graduates only have basic quantitative literacy skills… …unable to estimate if their car has enough gasoline to get to the next gas station. More than 50% of students at 4 yr colleges lack the skills to perform complex literacy tasks, such as comparing credit card offers or summarizing the arguments of newspaper editorials. http: //www. air. org/news/index. cfm? fa=view. Content&content_id=445
Red Balloon Project Academically Adrift R. Arum & J. Roksa Study has indicated that 36% of students did not show any significant improvement in Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over four years.
Red Balloon Project Graduation Rate, 2010 Study 63. 2% of 2003 students who began at a 4 year college earned bachelor’s degree by 2009. Beginning Postsecondary Survey, National Center for Education Statistics, U. S. Department of Education. http: //www. quickanded. com/2010/12/u s college graduation rate stays pretty much exactly the same. html New Study 2012 Full time students: 75% in 6 years Part time students: 32% in 6 years New National Tally of College Completion Tries to Count All Students. http: //chronicle. com/article/New National Tally of College/135792/
Red Balloon Project 5. Public Opinion *** 60% (six out of ten) of Americans in 2010 said that colleges today … focused more on the bottom line than on the educational experience of students. http: //www. highereducation. org/reports/squeeze_play_10. p df *** In a recent survey, 80% said that at many colleges, education received is not worth the cost. Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37 *** Lumina survey in November/December 2012, three quarters (3/4) of respondents said that college is unaffordable. http: //chronicle. com/article/Americans Value Higher/137023/
Red Balloon Project 6. The Role of Venture Capitalists New Start Ups Udacity Udemy University Now Coursebook Coursekit Courseload Course. Rank http: //chronicle. com/article/A Boom Time for Education/131229/
Red Balloon Project 7. Debt Student loan debt outpaced credit card debt for the first time last year. More than $ one trillion dollars this year Seven in 10 college seniors (71%) who graduated last year had student loan debt, with an average of $29, 400 per borrower. http: //projectonstudentdebt. org/state_by_state data. php
Red Balloon Project 8. Inequality 1996 2012, public colleges and universities gave a declining portion of grants—as measured by both the number of grants and the dollar amounts—to students in the lowest quartile of family income. The task of educating low income students has increasingly fallen to community colleges and for profit colleges. http: //chronicle. com/article/Public Colleges Quest for/141541/
Red Balloon Project Who Receives Merit Aid? 1 in 5 students from families with income over $ 250, 000 1 in 10 students from families with income under $ 30, 000 Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees 1970 2011 Top income quartile: 40% 70% Bottom income quartile 6% 10% http: //www. nytimes. com/2013/09/29/magazine/freebies for the rich. html? _r=0
Red Balloon Project “The higher education system is more and more complicit as a passive agent in the systematic reproduction of white racial privilege across generations. Since 1995, 82 percent of new white enrollments have gone to the 468 most selective colleges, while 72 percent of new Hispanic enrollment and 68 percent of new African American enrollment have gone to the two year open access schools. ” http: //cew. georgetown. edu/separateandunequal/
Red Balloon Project Are we vulnerable to disruption? Christensen and Eyring argue that disruption comes from cheaper and simpler technologies that are initially of lower quality. Over time, the simpler and cheaper technology improves to a point that it displaces the incumbent. The Innovative University. Clayton Christensen and Henry J. Eyring. 2011
Red Balloon Project The challenge is enormous. We have a confusion of purposes, distorted reward structures, limited success, high costs, massive inefficiencies, and profound resistance to change.
Red Balloon Project Clay Shirky “The biggest threat those of us working in colleges and universities face isn’t video lectures or online tests. It’s the fact that we live in institutions perfectly adapted to an environment that no longer exists. ” http: //www. shirky. com/weblog/2014/01/
Red Balloon Project The greatest challenge to our survival and success is our inability and/or unwillingness to change.
Red Balloon Project Churchill House of Commons
Red Balloon Project “The Chamber should be oblong and not semi circular; there should not be room for all its Members; it should be designed to preserve that intimacy of debate and discussion, freedom and sense of urgency and excitement…” http: //hansard. millbanksystems. com/commons/1945/jan/25 /house of commons rebuilding "We shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us. ” House of Commons (meeting in the House of Lords), 28 October 1943.
Red Balloon Project Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs; Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts
Red Balloon Project The Key Issue How do we educate more students, with greater learning outcomes, at lower costs?
Red Balloon Project What should a 21 st century university look like? (we’re only slightly more than 1/8 of the way into this new century, so let me describe some emerging characteristics of 21 st century universities not the final product)
Red Balloon Project Core Commitments
Red Balloon Project Commitment to Access Mission Statement: Arizona State University “measured not by who we exclude, but rather by who we include and how they succeed” “I don’t think the taxpayers of Florida voted to tax themselves to build a university that their children could not attend. ” John Hitt, President The University of Central Florida (UCF)
Red Balloon Project A commitment to ACCESS: Multiple entry points Make every effort to get students into the university: • early college programs in high school • summer preparatory academies • testing in 11 th grade and using 12 th grade for remediation, etc. • community college pathways And then make sure they succeed!
Red Balloon Project And challenge old assumptions: who’s college ready? A simple example: college mathematics Are students not prepared? Or are we the ones who are not ready? Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching: Statways and Quantways
Red Balloon Project Success for At Risk Students University of Texas Chemistry 301 David Laude Took 50 students with risk indicators: Low SAT, low income, first generation (200 points lower on SAT) Separate class, special interventions: Extra class hours, mentors…and high expectations. Outcome: Same grades as large section Higher overall graduation rate 3 years later http: //www. nytimes. com/2014/05/18/magazine/who gets to graduate. html
Red Balloon Project Two key ideas: Belonging and Ability One 45 minute intervention for first year students resulted in an 86% completion rate (completing 12 hours of credit in first semester) for disadvantaged students (black, Latino, first generation) …cutting in half the gap between advantaged students (90%) and disadvantaged students (82%)
Red Balloon Project Commitment to Student Success A set of studies by AASCU, Ed Trust, and the National Association of System Heads (NASH)
Red Balloon Project Commitment to Learning Outcomes • New Tools (CLA, CAAP, and MAPP) • New Organizations (NILOA, New Leadership Alliance, etc. ) • New Initiatives (Degree Qualifications Profile DQP) • New Pressures (Academically Adrift) • New Expectations (business, parents and students, government, accreditors)
Red Balloon Project What Learning Outcomes? What are the key work attributes of the 21 st century? Solving unstructured problems Working with new information Carrying out non routine tasks Complex communication Expert thinking The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane. 2005
Red Balloon Project Teaching As Valued As Research Comparing Teaching Effectiveness: Tenure and Non Tenure Faculty Ac a dem ic per form ance, 8 co horts of freshmen: 15, 662 students, from fall 2001 to fall 2008. Taking a course from non tenure track fac ul ty mem bers: • In creases the like li hood that a stu dent will take an oth class in the sub ject • In creases the grade earned in that sub se quent class • Produces the greatest gains for weakest students Northwestern University Study http: //chronicle. com/article/Ad juncts Are Bet ter/141523/
Red Balloon Project Commitment to be Stewards of Place For the 21 st century university, a focus on citizenship preparation, P 12 education, health care, economic and community development, and internationalization. AASCU published a second and third volume in the Stewards of Place series in August 2014
Red Balloon Project Commitment to Reducing Costs • Time to Completion • 120 hours for all majors • Reducing bottlenecks in completion • Charging out of state for 30+ credits beyond graduation requirements • Intrusive advising and early remediation • Flat rate for summer courses
Red Balloon Project Commitment to the Right Incentives What counts in the new university? What really matters? What are the metrics of success? Who gets rewarded / recognized?
Red Balloon Project Perverse Incentives Cardiac surgeons turned away the sickest and most severely ill patients after adopting performance based health report cards. Health disparities widened among White, Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing physician report cards. http: //www. learningoutcomesassessment. org/documents/Hillman. Viewpoint. pdf
Red Balloon Project Commitment to Rethinking Status and Prestige Our institutions were created as teaching institutions, instead of learning institutions. From Teaching to Learning A New Paradigm for Undergraduate Education. Robert B. Barr and John Tagg. Change Magazine. Nov. /. Dec. , 1995.
Red Balloon Project Key Changes
Red Balloon Project Changes in Academic Structures • Multiple institutional Courses • Course (set of competencies) • Credit Hour (based on seat time) • Semester (unlike Facebook) • Curriculum (interdisciplinary, community linked) • Degree (competency, certificates, etc. ) • Capstone Courses/Experiences
Red Balloon Project Changing Administrative Practices • Outsourcing • Campus Consolidation and Expansion • Strategic and Corporate Partnerships • Contingent and Flexible Workforce • Alterations in Benefits
Red Balloon Project Changing Administrative Structures • Organization design for optimal student outcomes • Multidisciplinary units • Units organized around problems, not disciplines
Red Balloon Project Changes in Physical Space • Classrooms • Library • Bookstore • Office Space • Campus
Red Balloon Project Changes in Student Services One example: Coaching Percent First Year Student Retention (2006 2011) Increase 2006 2011 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Points Percent Latino 65% 70% 72% 78% 84% 81% 16 25% First Generation 52% 69% 72% 75% 79% 81% 29 56% Low Income 69% 70% 74% 75% 79% 83% 14 20% Overall 65% 67% 71% 76% 78% 79% 14 22% Source: CSUMB University Factbook, CSUMB Office of Institutional Assessment and Research
Red Balloon Project Changing Faculty Work and Culture Faculty will work in a networked world in a collaboration of faculty, other experts, and students across time and space. “As individuals we will have to abandon that sense of ourselves as independent actors and agents. ” Checklist for Change. Robert Zemsky. http: //chronicle. com/article/How to Build a Faculty Culture/141887
Red Balloon Project The comparison of the work of physicians and university faculty members is striking: “Big Med. ” Atul Gawande. The New Yorker. http: //www. newyorker. com/reporting/2012/08/13/120813 fa_fact_gawand e? current. Page=all
Red Balloon Project In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes “An Emerging Culture for Health Care” 1. Hierarchal to Collaborative 2. Autonomous to Team Based 3. Competitive to Service Based 4. Individualistic to Mutually Accountable 5. Expert centered to Patient centered “Higher Education and the Future of American Health Care” by Darrell G. Kirch, M. D. , President and CEO, Association of American Medical Colleges (Washington, D. C. , November 2, 2010).
Red Balloon Project Focus on Innovative Teaching
Red Balloon Project Flipped Courses The “flipped” course. You do homework by watching lectures. You go to class to work on problems together. Khan Academy: 2, 400 videos covering everything from arithmetic to physics, finance, and history. Khan lessons viewed by more than 4 million people a month. http: //www. khanacademy. org/
Red Balloon Project Open Learning Initiative (OLI) Carnegie Mellon University http: //oli. web. cmu. edu/openlearning/index. php Team: content specialist cognitive scientist instructional designer graphic designer OLI Statistics students learned a full semester’s worth of material in half as much time and performed as well or better than students learning from traditional instruction over a full semester. http: //oli. web. cmu. edu/openlearning/publications/71 effectiveness statistics 0
Red Balloon Project Science Classes The Carl Wieman Science Education Initiative Three strategies: 1. Reducing cognitive load 2. Addressing beliefs 3. Stimulating and guiding thinking http: //www. cwsei. ubc. ca / Experiment produced two times the learning outcomes Deslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman. Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 – 864.
Red Balloon Project Math Emporiums “Higher Education’s Silver Bullet” Carol Twigg http: //www. changemag. org/Archives/Back%20 Issues/2011/May June%202011/math emporium full. html 3 Keys To Success: 1. Interactive computer software 2. Personalized on demand assistance 3. Mandatory Student Participation
Red Balloon Project Blended Courses Blended (hybrid) courses combine fact to face classroom instruction with online learning and reduced classroom contact hours (reduced seat time) Charles Dziuban, Joel Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning. EDUCAUSE. 2004 http: //net. educause. edu/ir/library/pdf/ERB 0407. pdf SRI Study http: //www 2. ed. gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence based practices/finalreport. pdf Ithaka Study http: //www. sr. ithaka. org/research publications/interactive learning online public universities evidence randomized trials
Red Balloon Project Broad Course Re Design George Kuh High Impact Practices • First-year seminars and experiences • Common intellectual experiences • Learning communities • Writing-intensive courses • Collaborative assignments and projects • Undergraduate research • Diversity/global learning • Service learning, community-based learning • Internships • Capstone courses and projects George Kuh. High Impact Educational Practices: What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why They Matter. AAC&U, 2008. Ensuring Quality & Taking High Impact Practices to Scale. AAC&U, 2013.
Red Balloon Project Prior Learning and Competencies Prior Learning Assessments: Council on Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL) New Competency based Degrees: Southern New Hampshire University Northern Arizona University Western Governor’s University Competency based Hybrid Degrees Badges: Khan Academy Certifications: Cisco Mozilla CLA Pearson
Red Balloon Project Personalization The capacity of software and systems to tailor course materials, learning processes, and approaches to the unique circumstances of individual learners. • Individual characteristics Learning style Memory decay Pacing • Obstacles or misunderstandings
Red Balloon Project 70 New Personalization Providers: Some Examples • • • Adapt Courseware A New Spring Cerego Global Cogbooks Jones and Bartlett Learning Knewton Loudcloud Systems Mc. Graw Hill Learnsmart Advantage Suite Open Learning Initiative Quantum Simulations Smart Sparrow Learning to Adapt. 2013 http: //edgrowthadvisors. com/research /
Red Balloon Project So what are the take aways from this set of ideas? What are some lessons for UMSL?
Red Balloon Project In a world of constant change, it seems to me that you must: • Embrace change • Challenge every practice • Provide a safe environment for experimentation and failure
Red Balloon Project This is not simply a difficult moment for higher education: it is the dawn of a very different era. The institutions that will succeed—indeed, thrive—in this era will be those that constantly innovate.
Red Balloon Project
Red Balloon Project Further Readings: “Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs; Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts. ” Gardner Institute: Academic Affairs/Student Affairs Conference. Orlando, Florida. January 17, 2014. “Challenge and Change. ” EDUCAUSE Review. (vol. 47, no. 5. September/ October 2012). http: //www. educause. edu/ero/article/challenge and change. Medieval Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21 st Century Imperatives. Teacher Scholar. Volume 2: Number 1 (Fall 2010).
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