Recharge Policy Analysis Money Facilities and Choices in

Recharge Policy Analysis Money, Facilities and Choices in the Tucson Active Management Area Kenneth Seasholes Assistant Area Director Tucson Active Management Area Arizona Department of Water Resources 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003 Tempe, Arizona 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Recharge Planning CAP Recharge Facilities Kai-Red Rock CMID Lower Santa Cruz USF BKW Avra USF ter a dw un ro G Clearwater flow Operational GSFs Operational USFs Central Arizona Project Pima Mine Rd. Service Areas/CC&Ns 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

AVID Proposal CAP Recharge Facilities ¨ AWBA would indirectly finance a CAP pipeline to the AVID GSF AVID • Mutually beneficial financing • Additional facility capacity Operational GSFs • Potential on-site recovery Operational USFs Central Arizona Project Service Areas/CC&Ns 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

AVID Proposal CAP Recharge Facilities Operational GSFs Operational USFs Central Arizona Project Service Areas/CC&Ns 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Analysis ¨ 1998 Regional Recharge Plan • Much of the report remains valid and useful • Scenarios are outdated and inadequate ¨ Updated analysis • More extensive physical & financial variables • Emphasis on AWBA activities 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Analysis Policy Variables Groundw ater Demand W Fe ithd e ra wa l Property Tax CAWCD Co W st o at er f AWBA Available Capacity $ GSF Recharge Facilities USF General Fund F 21/A USF its d re C 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge • Facility capacity • CAP availability Revenues • Tax • Fee • Fund Expenses • Water • Fee Credits Faci li Fees ty A CA va P ilab W le at er Physical • Firming • Water Management • Other June 5, 2003

Analysis =IF(N 3 -$F$14<=2001, ($I$14*1000)/$F$14, 0) 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Analytic Tool ¨ Series of linked, interactive spreadsheets • DEMAND by sector & provider • USF & GSF capacities & fees • AWBA funding & storage • STORAGE by facility, storer & year • SUMMARY 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Analytic Tool- Demand % CAP Sectors Time 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Facilities Analytic Tool- USFs Capacity Cost 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Analytic Tool- Storage Facilities Year Storers 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Analytic Tool- AWBA “Baseline” Assumptions • Cost of water: CAP advisory rates through 2007, 3% growth thereafter • Ad valorem tax: $1. 6 million base, 3% annual growth • Facility charge: flat $12, based on average cost at TAMA USFs and 2% GSF 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Scenario Testing ¨ Hypothetical Example • Lowering the cost of credits through buy-down of the $21/AF “Baseline” 98% USF 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Scenario Testing 80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down “Baseline” 98% USF 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Scenario Testing 30% USF; 70% GSF with $4/AF buy-down 80% USF; 20% GSF with $4/AF buy-down “Baseline” 98% USF 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Issue Identification ¨ The Tucson AMA’s firming target will not be met with projected revenue • 200, 000+ AF shortfall (30% below target) • Shortfall reflects revenue constraints and cost of credits • Will likely result in future groundwater mining 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003

Conclusions ¨ Recharge policy analysis is complex and multivariate ¨ Decision-support tools can provide insight and guidance ¨ The water management implications of recharge warrant rigorous analysis 11 th Biennial Symposium on Groundwater Recharge June 5, 2003