Recent/current crises: LIBIA, SYRIA, UKRAINE Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 21 May 2014, 15. 00 – 19. 00
THE LIBYAN CRISIS (2011)
1 st precedent: War between Italy and the Ottoman Empire, 1911 n n n n Casus belli: humanitarian reasons (slavery) True reason: preventing a German intervention (France occupying West, UK East) 29 Sept. 1911: war declaration without informing the Parliament Collateral damages: civilians killed at Sciara Sciat Mercenaries, arms trafficking, guerilla warfare Air bombing Consequences: balkanic wars and WW 1
2 nd precedent: Suez crisis, 1956
2 nd precedent: Suez crisis, 1956 n n n Nasser: nationalization of the Canal London, Paris: occupy the Canal No consultation within NATO Casus belli: Israeli intervention, ultimatum to Israel and Egypt USA irritated (colonialist enterprise)
3 rd precedent: Lockerbie n 21 Dec 1988: Flight Pan Am 103 Frankfurt. Detroit. 259+11=270 victims (terrorist attack organized by the Libyan Government)
4 th precedent: Italy-Libia agreement, 2010
Italy-Libia agreement, Bengasi, 30 August 2010 n n n n n End of post-colonial contentious Advantages for the Italian enterprises in Libia Selex: satellitar system (border control) Cooperation between Civil Aviations Building new railways Building new electric nets Building a new subway in Tripoli Fighting illegal immigration Energy (gas, oil)
5 th precedent: FR-UK agreement, 2010
Lancaster House Agreement 2 Nov 2010 n n n Common expeditionary Corps Mutual support with 2 aircraft carriers Joint maintenance of Air Force Cooperation (military technologies) Common Center for nuclear tests
5 precedents + energy resources _______ = WAR
“Odissey Dawn” “Harmattan” “Ellamy”
Ineffective sanctions: -individual resources blocking, -oil export embargo, -naval embargo, -NFZ
n “Europe is a nation composed of many nations: the state who wants to improve its strength at the expenses of neighbouring states, usually becomes weaker itself” (Charles de Montesquieu, 16891755)
May 2014 n n n n 14 May: Valentine’s coup 17 May: Disorders in Benghazi, Tripoli: Parliament attacked by the militias of Gen. Khalifa Haftar, anti-Islamist 80 dead KH: former Cin. C Libyan Army (vs Chad) Government: it’s a coup, Haftar is a CIA agent! Militias: never disbanded
THE SYRIAN CRISIS
Latin Eastern Kingdoms: Tortosa
TORTOSA, today TARTUS 1099: conquered by the Crusaders, capital city of the Tripoli County 1183 -1291: Logistic naval base of the Templar Knights
Alawites: minoritarian religious faction Majority: Sunni Muslims Other religious/ethnic minorities: Shi’a, Christians, Druse, Kurds…
Regime: supported by Iran (Shi’a country) Opposition: supported by Turkey and Sunni Muslim countries
Intervention of international community: Libia yes, Syria not. Why?
Oil and gas: in Libia yes, in Syria not
-Libia internationally isolated, -Syria: involvement of Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah…
-Libia: no strategic importance -Syria: yes (bordering with Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel)
Kurdish problem, like in Turkey, Iran and Iraq
UNSC: consensus about Libia possible, about Syria impossible
Russia: Tartus naval base
30 April 2013: “USA has evidence of use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime”
Chemical Weapons (WMD? ) n n Who assisted Syria’s regime in developing chemical weapons? Russia, Egypt, Iran? 21 Apr 2013: 1. 000 civilians killed in Damascus suburb of Ghouta (the regime denies responsibility)
Chemical Weapons (situation) n n OPCW transporting toxic materials from 23 sites to Latakia (22 Apr: 86, 5%) Next destination: Gioia Tauro (IT), then MV Cape Ray, equipped with 2 hydrolysis units for neutralizing the stuff in international waters (60 days of work) Deadline: 30 June 2014 Hidden stocks? (to be used in order to blame the rebels)
SO FAR: 160. 000 VICTIMS
3 June: presidential elections n n Organized by the regime Who will oppose Mr Assad? With one third of Syrians displaced? Smart Crisis Management!
THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS
Historic cornerstones: n n n n 1917: WW 1, a separated peace treaty Germany-Russia gives Ukraine to Germans (Soviet Republic of Donetsk. Krivoy Rog), 1918: WW 1, the American intervention defeats the Germans and Russia regains Ukraine, 1919: Ukraine becomes part of Soviet Union 1921 -1939: part of Poland 1954: Kruscev, an ethnic Ukrainian, gives Krimea to Ukraine, 1991: Ukraine independent (Sevastopol naval base with special status), communist party illegal, 2004 -2010: Yushenko, Yanukovic, Timoshenko… Orange revolution
Principle of nationality Movement of populations / boundaries
Role of IOs n n UN: absent (Russia: P 5 member) OSCE: absent (contrasting principles) NATO: July 1997, NUC EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy
Role of IOs n n UN: absent (Russia: P 5 member) OSCE: absent (contrasting principles) NATO: July 1997, NUC (COOPERATION) EU: June 2003, European Neighboring Policy (SEPARATION) n Risk: balkanization
Suggestion for the final thesis: n The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine)
Suggestion for the final thesis: The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) n A new tool of Crisis Management: Ineffective Sanctions n
Suggestion for the final thesis: The role of IOs in solving today’s crises (Libia, Syria, Ukraine) n A new tool of Crisis Management: Ineffective Sanctions n The importance of Russian Naval Bases in recent crises (Syria and Ukraine) n
Recent/current crises: LIBIA, SYRIA, UKRAINE Giovanni Marizza gianni. marizza@yahoo. it 21 May 2014, 15. 00 – 19. 00
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