Realist Theories Realism Theoretical framework that

Realist Theories

Realism • Theoretical framework that has held a central position in the study of IR • Realism’s foundation is the principle of dominance. – School of thought that explains international relations in terms of power. The exercise of power by states toward each other is sometimes called realpolitik, or just power politics.

Realism • Realism developed in reaction to a liberal tradition that realists called idealism. – Idealism emphasizes international law, morality, and international organizations, rather than power alone, as key influences on international events. – Belief that human nature is basically good. – Particularly active between WWI and WWII • League of Nations – Structure proved helpless to stop German, Italian, and Japanese aggression. • Since WWII, realists have blamed idealists for looking too much at how the world ought to be rather than how it really is.

Realism • In 2002, 33 IR scholars signed a New York Times advertisement warning that “war with Iraq is not in America’s national interest. ” • Neoconservative influence in U. S. foreign policy has diminished and realist influence has increased. – Result of the problems faced in the war in Iraq.

Realist Tradition o Sun Tzu o Thucydides o Hobbes o Morgenthau • Realists tend to treat political power as separate from, and predominant over: – morality, – ideology, – and other social and economic aspects of life. • States pursue their own interests in an international system of sovereign states without a central authority.

Table 2. 1

Power is a central concept in international relations. It is the central concept for realists. Difficult to measure.

Defining Power • Often defined as the ability to get another actor to do what it would not otherwise have done (or vice versa). • If actors get their way a lot, they must be powerful. • Power is not influence itself, but the ability or potential to influence others. – Based on specific (tangible and intangible) characteristics or possessions of states • Sizes, levels of income, and armed forces – Capability: Easier to measure than influence and less circular in logic

Defining Power • The single indicator of a state’s power may be its total GDP (gross domestic product) – Combines overall size, technological level, and wealth – At best, a rough indicator – A state’s tangible capabilities (including military forces) represent material power. • Power also depends on nonmaterial elements. – National will, diplomatic skill, popular support for government (legitimacy), and so forth • Power can only explain so much. Real-world IR depends on many other elements, including accidents or luck. • Relational concept: Relative power is the ratio of the power that two states can bring to bear against each other.

Estimating Power • The logic of power suggests: – The more powerful state will generally prevail. – Estimates of the power of two antagonists should help explain the outcome. – U. S. and Iraq • Implications of the outcome -- GDP does not always predict who will win the war

Elements of Power • State power is a mix of many ingredients. – Natural resources, industrial capacity, moral legitimacy, military preparedness, and popular support of government • Long-term elements of power – Total GDP, population, territory, geography, and natural resources – Less tangible long-term elements of power include political culture, patriotism, education of the population, and strength of the scientific and technological base. – Credibility of its commitments (reputation for keeping word) – Ability of one state’s culture and values to consistently shape thinking of other states (power of ideas)

Elements of Power • Capabilities that allow actors to exercise influence in the short term: – – Military forces Military-industrial complex Quality of the state’s bureaucracy Less tangible: Support and legitimacy that an actor commands in the short term from constituents and allies – Loyalty of a nation’s army and politicians to its leader • Trade-offs among possible capabilities always exist. – To the extent that one element of power can be converted into another, it is fungible. Money is the most fungible. • Realists tend to see military force as the most important element of national power in the short term.

Elements of Power • Morality – States have long clothed their actions, however aggressive, in rhetoric about their peaceful and defensive intentions. • Geopolitics – States increase their power to the extent that they can use geography to enhance their military capabilities. – Location, location – Two-front problem: Germany and Russia – Insular: Britain and United States – In general, power declines as a function of distance from a home state.

The International System • States interact within a set of longestablished “rules of the game” governing what is considered a state and how states treat each other. • Together these rules shape the international system.

Anarchy and Sovereignty • Realists believe the international system exists in a state of anarchy. – Term implies the lack of a central government that can enforce rules. – World government as a solution? – Others suggest international organizations and agreements. • Despite anarchy, the international system is far from chaotic. – Great majority of state interactions closely adhere to norms of behavior

Anarchy and Sovereignty • Sovereignty: A government has the right, in principle, to do whatever it wants in its own territory. • Lack of a “world police” to punish states if they break an agreement makes enforcement of international agreements difficult. – North Korea and its nuclear facilities • In practice, most states have a harder and harder time warding off interference in their affairs.

Anarchy and Sovereignty • Respect for the territorial integrity of all states, within recognized borders, is an important principle of IR. – Impact of information revolution/information economies and the territorial state system • States and norms of diplomacy • Security dilemma – A situation in which states’ actions taken to ensure their own security threaten the security of other states. • Arms race • Negative consequence of anarchy in the international system

Balance of Power • Refers to the general concept of one or more states’ power being used to balance that of another state or group of states. • Balance of power can refer to: – Any ratio of power capabilities between states or alliances, or – It can mean only a relatively equal ratio. – Alternatively, it can refer to the process by which counterbalancing coalitions have repeatedly formed in history to prevent one state from conquering an entire region.

Balance of Power • Theory of balance of power – Counterbalancing occurs regularly and maintains stability of the international system. – Does not imply peace, but rather a stability maintained by means of recurring wars that adjust power relations – Alliances are key • Quicker, cheaper, and more effective than building one’s own capabilities – States do not always balance against the strongest actor. • “bandwagoning” versus balancing

Great Powers and Middle Powers • The most powerful states in the system exert most of the influence on international events and therefore get the most attention from IR scholars. – Handful of states possess the majority of the world’s power resources.

Great Powers and Middle Powers • Great powers are generally considered the halfdozen or so most powerful states. – Until the past century, the club was exclusively European. – Defined generally as states that can be defeated militarily only by another great power. – Generally have the world’s strongest military forces and the strongest economies • U. S. , China, Russia, Japan, Germany, France, and Britain • U. S. the world’s only superpower • China the world’s largest population, rapid economic growth and a large military, with a credible nuclear arsenal

Figure 2. 1

Figure 2. 2

Great Powers and Middle Powers • Middle powers – – Rank somewhat below the great powers Some are large but not highly industrialized Others may be small with specialized capabilities Examples: midsized countries such as Canada, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, Ukraine, South Korea, and Australia, or larger or influential countries in the global South such as India, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan

Power Distribution • The concept of the distribution of power among states in the international system – Can apply to all the states in the world or to just one region • Neorealism, or structural realism – 1990 s adaptation of realism – Explains patterns of international events in terms of the system structure (distribution of power) rather than the internal makeup of individual states. – Neoclassical realists

Power Distribution • Polarity refers to the number of independent power centers in the system. – Multipolar system: Has five or six centers of power, which are not grouped into alliances. – Tripolar system: Has three great centers of power – Unipolar system: Has a single center of power around which all others revolve (hegemony) • Power transition theory – Holds that the largest wars result from challenges to the top position in the status hierarchy, when a rising power is surpassing or threatening to surpass the most powerful state.

Figure 2. 3

Hegemony • Is the holding by one state of most of the power in the international system • Can dominate the rules and arrangements by which international political and economic relations are conducted • This type of state is a hegemon.

Hegemony • Hegemonic stability theory – Holds that hegemony provides some order similar to a central government in the international system: reducing anarchy, deterring aggression; promoting free trade, and providing a hard currency that can be used as a world standard. – After WWII – U. S. hegemony – Hegemons have an inherent interest in the promotion of integrated world markets. • U. S. ambivalence – Internationalist versus isolationist moods – Unilateralism versus multilateralism

The Great-Power System, 1500 -2000 • Treaty of Westphalia, 1648 – Rules of state relations – Originated in Europe in the 16 th century – Key to this system was the ability of one state, or a coalition, to balance the power of another state so it could not gobble up smaller units and create a universal empire.

The Great-Power System, 1500 -2000 • Most powerful states in 16 th-century Europe were Britain, France, Austria-Hungary, and Spain. – – – – – Ottoman Empire Hapsburgs Impact of industrialization Napoleonic Wars Congress of Vienna (1815) Concert of Europe UN Security Council WW II and after

Alliances • An alliance is a coalition of states that coordinate their actions to accomplish some end – Most are formalized in written treaties – Concern a common threat and related issues of international security – Endure across a range of issues and a period of time

Purposes of Alliances • Augmenting their members’ power – By pooling capabilities, two or more states can exert greater leverage in their bargaining with other states. – For smaller states, alliances can be their most important power element. – But alliances can change quickly and decisively. – Most form in response to a perceived threat. • Alliance cohesion – The ease with which the members hold together an alliance – Tends to be high when national interests converge and when cooperation within the alliance becomes institutionalized and habitual. • Burden sharing – Who bears the cost of the alliance

NATO • NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization • One of the most important formal alliances – – Encompasses Western Europe and North America Founded in 1949 to oppose and deter Soviet power in Europe Countered by the Warsaw Pact (1955); disbanded in 1991 First use of force by NATO was in Bosnia in 1994 in support of the UN mission there. • European Union formed its own rapid deployment force, outside NATO. • Biggest issue for NATO is its recent and eastward expansion, beyond the East-West Cold War dividing line. – Russian opposition

Figure 2. 5

Other Alliances • U. S. -Japanese Security Treaty – U. S. maintains nearly 50, 000 troops in Japan. – Japan pays the U. S. several billion dollars annually to offset about half the cost of maintaining these troops. – Created in 1951 against the potential Soviet threat to Japan. – Asymmetrical in nature • U. S. has alliances with other states: South Korea and Australia • De facto allies of the U. S. : those with whom we collaborate closely – Israel • CIS – Commonwealth of Independent States – In 2008, Georgia declared it would withdraw from the CIS, effective August 2010, over its conflict with Russia

Regional Alignments • In the global South, many states joined a nonaligned movement during the Cold War. – Stood apart from the U. S. -Soviet rivalry – Led by India and Yugoslavia • Undermined by the membership of Cuba • Organization of African Unity – NGO that reformed as the African Union (AU) – Stronger organization with a continent-wide parliament, central bank, and court.

Regional Alignments • China loosely aligned with Pakistan in opposition to India (which was aligned with the Soviet Union). – Relationships with India warmed after the Cold War ended. • Middle East: General anti-Israel alignment of the Arab countries for decades – – – – Broke down in 1978 as Egypt and Jordan made peace with Israel and war with Hezbollah and Hamas Israel and Turkey formed a close military alliance Israel largest recipient of U. S. foreign aid Egypt Iran Bush administration: emphasis on spreading democracy

Figure 2. 6

Strategy: Statecraft • The art of managing state affairs and effectively maneuvering in a world of power politics among sovereign states. • Key aspect of strategy: What kinds of capabilities to develop, given limited resources, in order to maximize international influence – Example of China

Strategy: Statecraft • Deterrence – Uses a threat to punish another actor if it takes a certain negative action. • Compellence – Refers to the use of force to make another actor take some action (rather than refrain from taking an action). • Escalation – A reciprocal process in which two (or more) states build up military capabilities in response to each other.

Rationality • Most realists assume that those who wield power while engaging in statecraft behave as rational actors in their efforts to influence others. • Two implications for IR: – Assumption implies that states and other international actors can identify their interests and put priorities on various interests. The unitary actor assumption or the strong leader assumption. Leads to the advance of the national interest. • But what are the interests of the state? – Also, rationality implies that actors are able to perform a costbenefit analysis calculating costs incurred by a possible action and the benefits it is likely to bring. • How does one tally the intangibles?

The Prisoner’s Dilemma • Game theory – Branch of mathematics concerned with predicting bargaining outcomes. – Game is a setting in which two or more players choose among alternative moves, once or repeatedly. – Each combination of moves (by all players) results in a set of payoffs (utility) to each player. – Game theory aims to deduce likely outcomes given the players’ preferences and the possible moves open to them. • Game theory first used in IR in the 1950 s and 1960 s – Focus on U. S. /Soviet relations

The Prisoner’s Dilemma • Zero-sum games versus non-zero-sum games • Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD) – Captures the kind of collective goods problem common to IR – All players make choices that in the end make them all worse off than under a different set of moves. – They could all do better, but as individual rational actors they are unable to achieve this outcome. – Bank robber story – IR example: the arms race

The Prisoner’s Dilemma • Other games: – Chicken and the Cuban Missile Crisis – Kennedy, some argue, “won” by seeming ready to risk nuclear war if Soviet Premier Khrushchev did not back down and remove Soviet missiles from Cuba. – There alternative explanations of the outcome as well.