Rail Investment and Public Private Partnerships September 2014 David

Rail Investment and Public/Private Partnerships September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Rail Investment and Public Private Partnerships Can states be more than observers to the process? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Discussion Sequence • • • Who are the players? What do we know about them? What are the dimensions of the issue? Hotels, apartments or condos? Next steps – building a business model that works! September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Who are the players? • • State DOT’s FHWA / FRA MPO’s (Large Cities) Class I carriers September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Who are the players? • • State DOT’s FHWA / FRA MPO’s (Large Cities) Class I carriers Short line Carriers Large Trucking Firms New Rail Franchisees September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

What do we know about the public stakeholders? • Very limited funding for rail • Not part of mainstream planning efforts • Traditional “Niche” focus – – Public safety / grade crossings – Shortlines/branchline preservation – Passenger/commuter rail September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

What do we know about the private stakeholders? • Rail carriers in capacity rationing mode – Long-haul, high volume corridor emphasis – Threshold volumes for new services rising – Trainload traffic opportunities a priority – Little appetite to broaden market scope – Domestic intermodal becoming more important September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

What do we know about the private stakeholders? • Real pricing increases – Financials strong – Little incentive to change business model September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

What do we know about the private stakeholders? • Motor carriers under duress – hours of service and job structure issues – Extreme labor turnover issues – Hours of service regs impact availability – Drug testing – Willingness to explore new structures – Large vs. small firms September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

What are the dimensions of the issue? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public is sympathetic to freight rail • AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public is sympathetic to freight rail • AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report • Motorist frustration with truck volumes September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public is sympathetic to freight rail • AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report • Motorist frustration with truck volumes • Corridor studies confirm importance of freight congestion issue September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public is sympathetic to freight rail • AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report • Motorist frustration with truck volumes • Corridor studies confirm importance of freight congestion issue • No public sector model to move forward with freight rail September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public is sympathetic to freight rail • AASHTO Freight Rail Bottom Line Report • Motorist frustration with truck volumes • Corridor studies confirm importance of freight congestion issue • No structural model to move forward with rail • Geographic scope a big challenge for states September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Challenges of Public Rail Investment • Whose assets are they? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Challenges of Public Rail Investment • Whose assets are they? • What are we buying? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Challenges of Public Rail Investment • Whose assets are they? • What are we buying? • How do we measure capacity? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Challenges of Public Rail Investment • • Whose assets are they? What are we buying? How do we measure capacity? Who will guarantee service? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Challenges of Public Rail Investment • • • Whose assets are they? What are we buying? How do we measure capacity? Who will guarantee service? How do we track investment? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Challenges of Public Rail Investment • • • Whose assets are they? What are we buying? How do we measure capacity? Who will guarantee service? How do we track investment? How to allocate ongoing investment? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public Sector Evaluation Criteria • Confidence in forecasted impacts September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public Sector Evaluation Criteria • Confidence in forecasted impacts • Clarity of value equation – Capacity vs. investment – Service quality and market fit September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public Sector Evaluation Criteria • Confidence in forecasted impacts • Clarity of value equation – Capacity vs. investment – Service quality and market fit • Conservative market approach September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Public Sector Evaluation Criteria • Confidence in forecasted impacts • Clarity of value equation – Capacity vs. investment – Service quality and market fit • Conservative market approach • Capital vs. subsidy bias September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Private Sector Evaluation Criteria • Return to shareholders September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Private Sector Evaluation Criteria • Return to shareholders • Cash versus annuity value September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Private Sector Evaluation Criteria • Return to shareholders • Cash versus annuity value • Relationship to core business focus September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Private Sector Evaluation Criteria • • Return to shareholders Cash versus annuity value Relationship to core business focus Regulatory risk September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Private Sector Evaluation Criteria • • • Return to shareholders Cash versus annuity value Relationship to core business focus Regulatory risk Commercial risk September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

So What? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Hotels, Apartments or Condos? September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

What are structural options? ASSET STRIPPING NETWORK INTEGRATION Easement sale/lease Limited Corridors Market Isolation Broaden Core Biz Multiple Use Assets Marketing Integration September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Next Steps – Building a Business Model That Works! September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Next Steps – Building a Business Model That Works! • Identify key advantages and liabilities for various PPP business structures – Carrier perspectives – Public sector perspective September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Next Steps • Identify key advantages and liabilities for various PPP business structures – Carrier perspective – Public sector perspective • Develop two or three specific business models that may have application to corridor needs. September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Next Steps • Identify key advantages and liabilities for various PPP business structures – Carrier perspective – Public sector perspective • Develop two or three specific business models • Engage in collaborative effort to secure funding and initiate pilot project(s) September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC

Thank You! September 2014 David P. Simpson Consultants LLC