Putting Policy Makers First Moving Beyond the Complexity Sciences to Complexity Engineering www. synthesisips. net greg. fisher@synthesisips. net
Introduction Bank of England for 9 years Hedge Fund for 4 years Synthesis - with Paul Ormerod & Bridget Rosewell in 2011 • Think Tank (policy intermediary) • Centred around Complexity Theory • Emerging Theme: Complexity Engineering
Why we are here. . . ? Introducing: Sharon
Complexity & Policy: How it works at the moment Well, pattern Angela! want recognition Ihelps to tell youlife about becausethese They’re amazing! Ah are Therewell, you seemscomplexmix to be a Did you know should be aware things called systems! ofthedeciding evolving of that when future emergent patterns, global a things systems social that the phenomena. cascades, black is inherently world is not They’re terribly swans, and unknowable? ! deterministic important and Complexity things like that. It’s all a bit Boffin technical Please leave now via that and wave *shrugs*, ok, a pity. to That’s I’m window goodbye What does listening Soand? what? your funding! that mean for me? Policy Maker
How It could Work Angela, could you tell me what your problems are? I would like to help by using some new approaches to Complexity social systems. Boffin Of course! Where do I begin? !. . . Policy Maker
Science & Engineering Complexity Sciences Complexity Engineering Policy Maker Sharon Intermediaries (like Think Tanks)
Scientists & Engineers Scientific Principles Rigorous Thinking Funky Tools like ABM Internal dialogue: jargon mostly ok Engineering Principles Empathy with policymakers Imaginative Thinking to marry science & policy Clear articulation to layman
Some Engineering Principles? Old Paradigm: one expert, correct model, add data = endogenous policy choice But: society evolving, idiosyncrasies matter, & no-one can know whole terrain in wicked problem Key principles: • Crowd source views of policy space from multiple stakeholders • Pattern recognition of “policy space” • Repeat back to test pattern recognition • Consider policy options
Example: Multiple & Severe Disadvantages Round-Table Discussion: policy makers first UK Care delivery is silo-based People = Sum of care requirements Sharon: 8 application forms for unemployment, childcare, drug abuse, homelessness, psychologist, etc. Idea: tailored care for 5% of care cases - devolved authority
Moving Forward: Project Idea Learn from examples Learn from Complexity Consultants Mature Tools Prototype Tools Apply to multiple as Publish on web Policy Terrains a “wiki”: additions & Evolution Learning Feedback Loop Use in Policy
Q&A
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