PROVINCIAL BUDGETS AND EXPENDITURE REVIEW 19 OCTOBER 2005 1
PRESENTATION OUTLINE • PROVINCIAL EXPENDITURE AND BUDGET TRENDS • BUDGETARY PRESSURES • SERVICE DELIVERY PERFORMANCE • OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES 2
REAL PROVINCIAL EDUCATION EXPENDITURE TRENDS, 2001/02 – 2007/08 3
REAL PROVINCIAL EXPENDITURE TRENDS contd. • Underspending provinces: EC , KN and LP • Decline in EC and LP between 2004 and 2005 but some noticeable recovery after 2005 if projected MTEF figures will not be tempered with at provincial level • KN has a healthier budget growth over the MTEF than EC and LP • GP’s school-age population projected to increase by 2. 6% during 2005 -2007 while real annual average spending only increases by 1. 1% over the same period • GP’s spending trend worrying given high enrolment increases and migration into the province • WC has a problem similar to that in GP 4
Increases in education expenditure in provinces lower than in other main social sectors 5
Overall decline in education proportion of total provincial expenditure 6
Even as a proportion of non-social development spending in the provinces, education is in decline. 7
EDUCATION SPENDING AS A PROPORTION OF GNP Downward trend in total education expenditure over GNP (and GDP) since 1996 Some evidence that private spending is more than compensating for this decline 8
Education expenditure as a percentage of government expenditure has been on the decline since 1996 9
PROVINCIAL EXPENDITURE BY ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION Noticeable decrease in personnel spending and increased proportional spending on NPNC and Capital 10
RECAPPING • 2005/6 compared with 2004/5 • Real increase in provincial education expenditure by only 2% as compared to provincial expenditure of 6%. • Health 8%, Other functions 2% • EC=0%, GP=-1% and LP=-2%. • HOWEVER KZN=7% and MP=8% • 2005/6 of this MTEF compared with 2005/6 of previous MTEF • Real increase in provincial education baseline only 0. 8% (1%) as compared to provincial increase of 4%. • Health 14%, Other functions 4%. • EC=-5%, FS=0%, NC=-3% • HOWEVER WC=8% 11
Real increases 2005/6 over 2004/5 MTEF Real increases to baselines 12
Real expenditure trend upwards and personnel spending experiencing a slight downward trend 13
BUDGETARY PRESSURES q Education expenditure as a proportion of GDP declines from 6, 8% to 5, 2% between 1995 and 2007 q Education proportion of total provincial expenditure declines from 38, 5% in 2001/02 to 32, 4% in 2007/08 q Growth in government spending on education is less than other social sectors e. g. social grants, health, housing q Different spending patterns amongst the nine provinces BUT there is a move towards greater interprovincial equity in terms of per learner spending and enrolment ratios 14
SERVICE DELIVERY PERFORMANCE COVERAGE q Despite budgetary pressures, enrolment of ages 07 to 15 retained at around 97% during 1997 -2003 period. q FET college expansion (17% increase in terms of FTEs 1998 -2002). q Grade R: By 2003 73% of cohort enrolled, and 39% of cohort receiving public funding. Schools offering Gr R increased in 2003 -2004 from 37% to 45% 15
ADEQUACY & EFFICIENCY q Major increases in spending on textbooks and supplies. Average non-personnel school allocation increased by 80% from R 240 to R 435 during 2002 -2005 (2005 prices). q Reduced pressure to charge fees - % of learners leaving school due to high fees dropped from 75% to 37% during 1995 to 2003. In 2004, 82% of all applications for exemptions granted. q In 2000 -2004 period 20, 461 new classrooms built – this is 7% of total stock in 2000. In same period 1, 526 schools given running water - % of schools with no water thus reduced from 29% to 23%. Corresponding reduction for schools with no electricity was 45% to 40%. 16
ADEQUACY & EFFICIENCY (contd. . . ) q Percentage of learners who are repeaters dropped from 14% to 9% between 1997 and 2003. Downward trend across all provinces: 17
OUTPUTS AND OUTCOMES q Young adults aged 25 -34 are more educated than before - % with Gr 12 went up 24% to 33% during 1995 to 2003. q Senior Certificate pass rate improved 58% to 71% during 2000 to 2004. q Trend in GET still not possible to gauge with sufficient accuracy, but major national and international monitoring of learner performance has occurred (SACMEQ in 2000, TIMSS in 2003, Systemic Evaluation in 2004). The baseline for future testing is now more solid. q Performance in reading and numeracy is of concern 18
THANK YOU. 19
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