Project Management Lecture 1 Project Planning Principles

Project Management Lecture 1 Project Planning Principles

Who am I? • Ilya [Olegovich] Orlov • • • M. Sc. in Physics & IT (NSU, 2005) M. Sc. in Strategic Management (NSU, 2015) Prof. Cert. in Educational Management (Skolkovo MSM, 2016) PM in >50 projects during 11 years, mainly Sci Events department head at NSU, 2007 -now orlovio@gmail. com vk. com/orlovio fb. com/orlovio

What is a project? • «A temporary endeavour to produce a unique product or service» (PMI) • Understood? I think no ; ) • Give me 5 examples of projects • and 5 examples of non-project activities

A project: • • • Unique result (we have never done this stuff) Complex activity (need to be planned before) Usually needs a team (nobody can do everything) External borders & limitations = shortage of resources Time limit = definite beginning and definite end • Needs special resources & skills to be managed

Project management • Managing the project = • applying both the science and the art of planning, organizing, implementing, leading, and controlling the work of a project to meet the goals and objectives. (PMI)

5 phases of project management • • • Initiation = recognizing that the project should begin Planning = constructing a schedule of tasks and resources Executing = providing coordination methods and resources Controlling = handling unexpected hurdles and keeping promises Closing = formalizing the acknowledgement and gathering experience • Main scope of the course: planning and controlling

What does PMI think?

Main questions of planning • What should I get in the end? (except for PM salary & bonuses ) • The objectives = the deliverables • What should I do for that? • Work breakdown structure (WBS) • How much time & money will it take? • Project timeline = PERT chart • Cost estimations

WBS = work breakdown structure

Principles of effective estimations • 1. Divide and conquer • • Divide the project up into individual subsystems. Then divide each subsystem further into the activities Next, you make a series of detailed estimates for each individual activity. And sum the results to arrive at the grand total estimate for the project.

Principles of effective estimations • 2. Forget-me-not • Include all activities when making estimates. • The time required for all development activities must be taken into account. Prototyping, Design, Inspecting, Testing, Debugging, Writing user documentation, Deployment.

Principles of effective estimations • 3. Past experience + knowledge of the current project • If you have done it before: • You can expect it to take a similar amount of work. • Base your estimates on the personal judgement of your experts • or • Use algorithmic models • They take into account various aspects of a project’s size and complexity, and provide formulas to compute anticipated cost.

Principles of effective estimations • 4. Account for differences • • Different software developers Different development processes and maturity levels Different types of customers and users Different schedule demands Different technology Different technical complexity of the requirements Different levels of requirement stability

Principles of effective estimations • 5. Anticipate the worst case and plan for contingencies • Develop the most critical use cases first • Make three estimates: • Optimistic (O) = Imagining a everything going perfectly • Likely (L) = Allowing for typical things going wrong • Pessimistic (P) = Accounting for everything that could go wrong

Principles of effective estimations • 6. Combine multiple independent estimates. • Use several different techniques and compare the results. • They will differ • Use the Delphi technique. • Several individuals initially make cost estimates in private. • They then share their estimates to discover the discrepancies. • Each individual repeatedly adjusts his or her estimates until a consensus is reached.

Principles of effective estimations • 7. Revise and refine estimates as work progresses • As you add detail. • As the requirements change. • As the risk management process uncovers problems.

PERT scheme 3 1 6 2 4 5 7 8

What does it mean? • • • Before an activity can begin, its preceding activities must be completed. Arrows indicate logical precedence. Flow of the diagram is from left to right. Arrows should not intersect. Dangling should be avoided.

Planning the schedule of the project • For each activity, time estimates include: • Total time for completion • ES- Earliest start time • EF-Earliest finish time • LF- Latest finish time • LS- Latest start time

A simple project Activity Immediate Predecessor Expected time A B C D A A, B 5 6 4 2 Draw the PERT chart with lines & activities

You got something like that:

Drawing rules ES Earliest Starting (time) EF Earliest Finishing LS Latest Starting LF Latest Finishing Slack Difference Time And now include the times to your chart

Something like that, right?

Critical path method (CPM) • Critical path is the sequence of activities between a project’s start and finish that takes the longest time to complete. • And if you fail at the critical path, you cannot stay in time for all the project

Steps in determining Critical Path • • • Specify the individual activities. Determine the sequence of the activities. Draw the network diagram. Estimate the activity completion time. Identify the critical path. Update the CPM diagram.

Another simple project Activity Precedence Normal time (week) Normal Cost ($) A - 3 300 B A 3 30 C A 7 420 D A 9 720 E B 5 250 F B, C, E 6 320 G F 4 400 H F 13 780 I G 10 1000 Total 4220

Network diagram = PERT chart 7 4 1 5 2 6 3 8

Calculating paths • • Paths in the network diagram : 7 4 A-D-F-G-I = 32 A-D-F-H = 31 A-C-F-H = 29 1 5 2 6 A-C-F-G-I = 30 A-B-E-F-H = 30 A-B-E-F-G-I = 31 3 8

Critical path: A-D-F-G-I = 32 weeks 7 4 1 5 2 6 3 8

Time estimates for PERT • Optimistic time (to) = the shortest time in which the activity can be completed • Most likely time (tm) = the probable time required to perform the activity • Pessimistic time (tp) = the longest estimated time required to perform an activity • Expected time te = (to + 4 tm + tp) / 6 • Standard deviation = (tp – to) /6

Normal (Gaussian) distribution • • P(t

Steps in PERT • • • Identify the specific activities. Determine proper sequence of the activities. Construct the network diagram. Estimate the time required for each activity. Determine the critical path. Update the PERT chart.

Activity Description Precedence Optimistic time Most Likely time Pessimistic time A Initial design - 12 16 26 B Survey market A 6 9 18 C Build prototype A 8 10 18 D Test prototype C 2 3 4 E Redesigning B, D 3 4 11 F Market testing E 6 8 10 G Set up production F 15 20 25 Expected time

Estimation results • A-B-E-F-G = 60 • A-C-D-E-F-G = 64 (Critical Path) 1 2 4 3 5 6 7

Advantages of PERT • • Expected project completion time. Probability of completion before a specified date. The critical path activities that directly impact the completion time. The activities that have slack time and that can lend resources to critical path activities. • Activity start and end dates.

PERT limitations • • • The PERT Formula requires some calculations The network charts tend to be large and unwieldy. Calculating the time estimates is quite complex for all the activities. Updating of the project is time consuming and requires high costs. Emphasis is laid only on time factors and cost factors are neglected.

Difference between CPM & PERT CPM PERT • CPM works with fixed deterministic time • PERT works with probabilistic time • CPM is useful for repetitive and non • PERT is useful for non repetitive complex projects with a certain degree and complex projects with uncertain of time estimates. • CPM includes time-cost trade off. • PERT is restricted to time • CPM – for construction projects. • PERT- used for R&D programs.

Homework 1 • You have your research projects 1. Prepare a 5 -7 min project presentation. 2. Specify accurately the goal of your work – in terms of deliverables, time limits and resources.

Homework 2 1. 2. 3. 4. Prepare a project WBS including all the important tasks. Create a network diagram, estimate the durations, calculate the CP. Enhance the calculations to determine te and SD. Prepare the 10 min presentation.