Prof. Dr. Peter MIHÁLYI (Hungary) Globalization and economic growth – the lessons of 25 years since the collapse of the communist system Российский Экономический Университет имени Г. В. Плеханова, Финансовый факультет Международный форум «Financial centers: Travelling around the world» Международный круглый стол «Евразийская интеграция: результаты первого года» , Moscow, 7 October, 2015.
Introduction of Prof. Dr. Peter MIHÁLYI Born in Budapest (1953) Education: Karl Marx University of Economics (Budapest) 1983 -1993: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva, Switzerland) 1994 -95: Deputy Government Commissioner for Privatization 1997 -98: Deputy Minister of Finance 1998 – to date: University professor. Author of 15 books and cca. 100 scholarly papers articles. Editor-in-Chief: Acta Oeconomica (English language academic quarterly journal with impact factor) 2
International trade is not new (e. g. the Silk Road) … but the term „globalization” was first used in the 1994 Annual Report of the International Labour Organization (ILO). 3
Technological and institutional changes reduce the transaction costs of international trade • Cost of transportation • Tariffs 4
Outsourcing (division of the value chain) continues… 5
Definition • Trade • Capital flows • Technology 6
Trade to GDP (%, 2011 – 2013) Trade per capita (US$, 2011 -2013) 25000 200 180 20000 160 140 15000 120 10000 80 60 5000 40 20 0 Hungary Poland Russia 0 Hungary Poland Source: WTO Russia 7
12000 10000 4000 2000 0 Es to Hu nia ng ar Ru y ss Po ia Ka la za nd kh st Uk an ra in Be e la ru s Es to Hu nia Ka nga za ry kh st a Po n la n Ru d s Uk sia ra i Be ne la ru s FDI stock per capita (US$, 2014) Inward Outward 16000 14000 5000 4000 8000 3000 6000 2000 1000 0 8
Strikingly large performance difference in GDP growth among the post-communist countries The rise of total GDP between 1989 and 2014 in selected countries, GDP ratio (2014/1989) Note: The underlying time series were in millions of 2014 US$ at purchasing power parity (PPP) and converted to 2014 price level with updated 2011 EKS PPPs. Source: Authors’ calculations based on The Conference Board Total Economy Database™ (2015). 9
New situation: world trade slows down 10
Bad news: the headwinds returned Three periods: 1993 - 1999: ↓ 2000 – 2008: ↑ 2009 - ? ? ? : minimal catching up Source: The Economist, 13 Sept. , 2014 11
Take-home messages 1) Integration into the globalized world economy is a necessary condition of long-term economic growth. 2) In the world economy, the good times for the post-communist economies are over. Difficult years are waiting for us. 12
Contact coordinates: Prof. Dr. Peter MIHÁLYI Visiting Professor Central European University (Budapest) Economics Department and Head Department of Finance University of Pannonia (Veszprém) E-mail: peter@mihalyi. com Editor-in-Chief of Acta Oeconomica URL: http: //akkrt. hu/22/journals/products/economics/ acta_oeconomica_eng 13
14
Скачать презентацию Prof Dr Peter MIHÁLYI Hungary Globalization and economic
EN_Globalisation_and_growth.pptx